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Rupert Murdoch, CEO of News Corp (NYSE: NWS) and king of all he surveys, wants to buy The New York Times. At least that is what he told Vanity Fair according to a Reuters report.

It is hard to see why Murdoch would even bother to dream that dream. Based on the most recent quarterly earnings report and monthly figures reported by The New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT), the paper probably loses money when the results of its online business are backed out. If ad lineage at the print product keeps falling, and it will, even NYTimes.com will not be able to save the bottom line.

While The New York Times is a trophy, it would almost certainly be an expensive one. The parent company has a market cap of about $2 billion, and the paper might go for more than that because of its unique position as the most respected news outlet in the US.

Murdoch is probably already struggling with The Wall Street Journal. He has to be. Newspaper ad revenue is simply dropping too fast for the Journal to be immune.

Owning another paper is just asking for more losses which would need to be offset by other businesses at News Corp.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

BusinessWeek recently posed the question of how The New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT) could be worth so little? The question is worth pondering.

The company has a market cap of about $1.8 billion, roughly the price that CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS) recently agreed to buy CNET for. Its enterprise value is about $2.85 billion.

Lehman Brothers analyst Craig Huber estimated that the Boston Globe and 15 regional papers could be sold for $575 million after taxes, and valued the company's 17% stake in the Boston Red Sox at $152 million and estimated NYT's portion of its new headquarters at $750 million. About.com, which the Times bought for $410 million three years ago, could fetch a tidy profit if it were sold today.

Shares of The New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT) are trading higher today after the company posted a second-quarter profit of $21.1 million, or 15 cents per share. NYT's adjusted profit came in at 26 cents per share, beating analysts' estimates of 22 cents per share. The company also annouced an increase int eh newsstand price from $1.25 to $1.50. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NYT.

After hitting a one-year high of $23.85 last July, the stock hit a one-year low of $12.08 last week. NYT opened this morning at $13.05. So far today the stock has hit a low of $12.38 and a high of $13.42. As of 1:15, NYT is trading at $13.00, up $0.16 (1.1%). The chart for NYT looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a bearish 2 Stars (out of 5) Sell rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $12.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 19.0% return in just four weeks as long as NYT is above $12.50 at August expiration. NYT would have to fall by more than 4.3% in the next few weeks before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Tribune, formerly a public newspaper and broadcast company, lost the publisher of its largest newspaper, the LA Times, and the editor of its flagship, the Chicago Tribune. New controlling shareholder Sam Zell is in trouble, burdened by buyout debt he may not be able to pay.

Most analysts saw another modest drop in newspaper ad revenue this year. It has been much worse than that. At some companies in the industry, ad sales are off nearly 15%. An analyst recently dropped his price target on The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT) to $8 and said the firm would have to cut its dividend. The stock currently trades at $13.21.

The two public companies which are at most risk for not making it another year are Gatehouse (NYSE: GHS) and McClatchy (NYSE: MNI). Both took on big debt loads buying newspaper properties. Both are seeing operating income chopped by falling sales. Either could hit debt service problems which could force them to sell properties of file for Chapter11.

Gatehouse dropped as low as $1.11 in the last few days. Its 52-week high is $19. McClatchy is down to $4.93 from a 52-week high of $28.65. Gatehouse is the most troubled with a high dividend and $1.3 billion in long-term debt.

Newspapers companies have gone from being in a tight spot to being candidates for liquidation. They are a short-seller's dream.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lam Research, Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Credit Suisse upgraded Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) to Outperform from Neutral citing margin expansion and valuation. Lam was named the firm's top pick in SCE names for 2H08.
  
• JP Morgan upgraded shares of Deutsche Telekom (NYSE:DT) to Overweight from Neutral as they expect a stronger second half of the year for the industry.
  
• France Telecom (NYSE:FTE) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill and to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale after the company walked away without bidding for Sweden's TeliaSonera.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• UBS upgraded American Express (NYSE:AXP), Capital One (NYSE:COF) and Discover (NYSE:DFS) to Neutral from Sell.
  
• New York Times(NYSE:NYT) was raised to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  
• RBC Capital raised Sanmina (NASDAQ:SANM) to Sector Perform from Underperform.
  
• Merrill upgraded Sirius Satellite (NASDAQ:SIRI) to Buy from Neutral.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says massive debt at the newspapers means they no longer work as businesses.

Maybe newspapers don't work as businesses. The shocking 10% workforce reduction announced this week by McClatchy (Cramer's Take) (NYSE: MNI), formerly the best-run chain out there, is a reminder that all of these companies have borrowed too much money and don't generate the cash flow to make it work. McClatchy, with an 8% yield, is showing signs of collapsing under its own weight, something that has been exacerbated by Wall of Shame performer Gary Pruitt, a man who is still, amazingly, the CEO.

But all of this was totally predictable. I have never seen an industry attract so many buyers with so much debt and so little equity.

Take Tribune (Cramer's Take). Sam Zell's a smart guy. He let the newspaper employees do the heavy lifting when he bought the Tribune company. That was so smart. He will be out very little if the deal fails. The workers will be out their retirement money. That was a smart deal -- unless you work there -- but I have spoken against that deal so many times I am sick of talking about it.

McClatchy could have weathered this downturn, instead of -- it is a bit unthinkable, but I think it will happen -- defaulting on its debt, if it hadn't been determined to buy a bunch of properties for much more than they are worth. The New York Times (Cramer's Take) (NYSE: NYT) and Gannett (Cramer's Take) (NYSE: GCI) spent a lot of money, but they didn't have to buy back stock. Gannett's 6% yield isn't tempting in the least.

Before the bell: Futures lower following Bernanke's inflation comments

After the 3G iPhone was finally announced Monday, with a price tag and a business model that could take the funky phone to the masses, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) ended lower on some profit taking. But have no fear. Already this morning, Citigroup raised Apple's price target to $287 from $248 with a Buy rating, and Lehman raised it to $234 from $202, maintaining its Overweight rating. Despite the stock trading higher in European markets, it's still not showing signs of recovery in premarket trading in the US.

ThinkPanmure initiated Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) with a Buy, claiming it is gaining market share over rival Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD). The analyst also said Intel is gaining prominence in the server, desktop and notebook markets.

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) updated its desktop and notebook computers. It introduced Tuesday in Berlin a new ultra-thin portable, the Voodoo Envy, to rival Apple's MacBook Air. H-P also added a new version of a touch-screen desktop PC and 16 notebooks for consumers and businesses.

The Tribune is not a public company anymore, but CEO Sam Zell says enough about his plans that it might as well be.

According to The New York Times, Zell "announced a set of deep cuts, saying that shrinking revenue left them no choice." One of the things that means is fewer pages devoted to news as newsprint use is reduced.

The Tribune carries a lot of debt, so it is in more trouble that other chains such as The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT) and Gannett (NYSE: GCI). But, other large paper operations including McClatchy NYSE: MNI) and Gatehouse (NYSE: GHS) also have massive debt burdens from money they borrowed to expand their empires.

What all of this means is that more reporters and editors will lose their jobs and the typical reader will get a newspaper that is thin as toilet paper. For newspaper company investors it means that stocks, some already down 50% to 70% in the last year, are going down even further.

The trouble also may spell the end of nearly a century of big papers like The New York Times being the news sources of record. The company recently cut 100 people, most of them from the news operation. Covering major national and international stories is becoming more difficult and at some point it may be impossible.

There is always CNN.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Chip suppliers for cellphones including Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM), Texas Instruments Incorporated (NYSE: TXN) and Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) are moving aggressively to make products for Intel Corporation's (NASDAQ: INTC) new breed of pocket-size portable devices, called MIDs, the Wall Street Journal reported.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to the UK Times, Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS) and The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (NYSE: RBS) were raided by the Office of Fair Trading as part of the investigation into price fixing loans to professional services firms.

WEB SITES:

• Almost three dozen of the largest U.S. companies may have to slash their dividends, since the dividends greatly exceed their cash flow, Bloomberg reported. Large companies in this situation include General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM), Motorola Inc (NYSE: MOT), and The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT).
• China Telecom Corporation Limited (NYSE: CHA) may announce today that it has bought the mobile phone assets of China Unicom Limited (NYSE: CHU) and its parent company for more than $14.4B, Bloomberg reported, citing the South China Morning Post. China Unicom could say that it is merging with China Netcom Group Corporation (NYSE: CN) as early as today, the newspaper added.

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

While lenders and builders have been cruelly battered by a real estate market that seems to have no bottom, there's another industry group that suffers as much if not more: the newspaper business.

First, newspapers were hit by the Internet, taking readers faster than rebate checks are spent. Now it's real estate ads, and their complementary advertisers such as home furnishings. Another weak advertiser: automobiles. All ads have decreased to a point where some publishers are laying off employees every month, trying to cut costs fast enough to offset lower revenues.

Display ads are hurting while online search ads remain strong, the New York Times reports today. Specifically, PubMatic, an advertising-technology company in Palo Alto, CA that runs an online-pricing index, found the prices paid for online ads bought through ad networks dropped 23% from March to April 2008.

This drop in pricing has hurt some companies' results:

• Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX)'s AOL, parent of BloggingStocks, saw an 18% decline in display advertising revenue to $191 million.
• The New York Times' (NYSE: NYT) Internet ad revenues increased 16%; a year earlier, though, they increased 20%.
• WebMD Health (NASDAQ: WBMD) revised down its 2008 revenue guidance to a range of $380 million to $395 million, from a range of $395 million to $415 million thanks to lower expected ad revenues.

The good news? Surprise! -- Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). In the most recent quarter, Google had a profit of $1.31 billion on revenues of $5.19 billion. Its United States revenue was up 30%. The reason is that display ads don't offer a tangible payoff to advertisers whereas search ads do.

Advertisers are simply trying to maximize their returns on the advertising investment (ROAI). If someone comes along and offers a higher ROAI than Google, advertisers will switch to that provider. Meanwhile, those stuck with display advertising will suffer at Google's hands.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Fortune and BusinessWeek are piling on the story of Harbinger Capital Partners, a $19 billion hedge fund, seeking to take over the New York Times (NYSE: NYT). Harbinger now owns 19% of its Class A shares. Of course, Harbinger is not the only threat to management of the Times -- News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Rupert Murdoch is doing his part as well. Will Steve Rattner, a long-time friend of Times publisher Arthur Sulzberger and Managing Principal of Quadrangle Group, come to the rescue and take the Times private?

In play here are Phillip Falcone, a Harbinger partner who made $1.7 billion last year, and the quaint idea of protecting a media company's founding family by maintaining two classes of stock: Class A for the public to make insiders liquid and Class B for the insiders. Murdoch and Sulzberger enjoy protection for their family dynasties thanks to that two-tiered structure.

Falcone thinks that the Times is leaving huge amounts of money on the table by not "monetizing" all the comments on its stories. What sparked this idea was a January opinion piece by Caroline Kennedy comparing Barack Obama with her father, President John F. Kennedy. There were only a few comments about the article on the newspaper's Web site, nytimes.com, but there were hundreds on Huffington Post and Digg.com. BusinessWeek quotes Scott Galloway, founder of hedge fund Firebrand Partners and Falcone friend who said: "We came to the collective conclusion that there was so much upside in terms of billions of pages the paper wasn't monetizing. He [Falcone] never looked back."

Rupert Murdoch is facing off against the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) as he seeks to take control of two TV stations and three newspapers in New York -- including Newsday -- The New York Times reports. A December 2007 FCC rule allows a company to own just one paper and one television station in the same city in the top 20 markets so long as there are at least eight other independent sources of news and the station is not in the top four. (The stations that News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) controls are the fourth- and sixth-largest in the New York market).

Meanwhile, I am fascinated by the Wall Street Journal's [subscription required] coverage of the departure of its own managing editor, Marcus Brauchli, yesterday. The punch line was that everything is fine because Brauchli was simply doing what the boss wanted. Brauchli's new role? Providing "guidance to senior management in a wide range of areas," including whether Murdoch's Star-TV service in Asia should launch a business-news channel. Sounds like a good fit.

In contrast to the Journal's corporate press release on its page one, The New York Times reported that Brauchli was fired. It noted that a few weeks prior to his departure, Murdoch's henchmen indicated they were unhappy with the pace of change at the Journal. The Times wrote: "At some point, They told him, 'We don't think this is working,' and Brauchli replied that in that case, he should consider leaving."

It appears that News Corp (NYSE: NWS) will buy the largest newspaper on Long Island, Newsday, from The Tribune Co., increasing pressure on The New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT) in its home market. News Corp already owns The New York Post. Recent press reports indicate that News Corp is adding more political and international content to The Wall Street Journal to better compete with the Times.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the price for Newsday could be about $580 million, and final details of the purchase or lack of government approval could still kill the deal.

Tribune needs to make the sale to cover debt it took on in its LBO.

The news is especially bad for The New York Times Co. While the Post does not take much advertising from the Times, it does have a circulation of over 600,000 in New York City. Newsday has a daily circulation of about 400,000 in the well-to-do area of Long Island, just east of New York.

The New York Times is already in enough trouble. It posted a loss last quarter, and in March advertising revenue fell about 11%. The firm's stock trades at $20, but many observers believe that it it were not the target of investors who hope to break it up or sell it that the shares price would be much lower.

The value of the company just got undermined again.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.