For Boeing (NYSE: BA), there's more hinging on today's machinists' contract vote than the company's primary labor costs over the next three years.

"The fate of future orders for the 787 Dreamliner could weigh in the balance," stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Wednesday.

About 27,000 members in the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union in Washington State, Oregon and Kansas will vote today concerning whether to accept a three-year contract, The Associated Press reported Wednesday. Contact vote results are expected Wednesday night.

Shares of Boeing (NYSE: BA) rose 90 cents to $66.79 in Wednesday morning trading.

Despite Boeing's offer of a $5,000 signing bonus and a pay increase totaling 11% over the 3-year contract, its passage is hardly a slam dunk, Bauer said. "I know the media likes to portray every major union contract as a big deal, but this one really is a big issue. There are a lot of nervous parties watching this vote, parts suppliers to Boeing, businesses in the affected regions, and of course, almost every major airline around the world," Bauer said. "A protracted strike at Boeing would jeopardize several commercial airplane delivery timetables."

Work stoppage could hurt 787 orders

And that would mean another delivery delay in Boeing's signature plan for the initial part of the twenty-first century, the 787 Dreamliner. Further, perhaps even more distressing, Bauer said a protracted strike would also likely change major airlines' stance toward Boeing to the point where they may very well cancel future orders of the 787.

"Airlines, particularly foreign-based airlines, would not take a strike lightly. They're already stressed by record jet fuel prices and added costs for increased security. And for many timely delivery of the 787 is critical to their revised business models to address these higher costs," Bauer said. "A Boeing strike could very well turn a lot of airlines off and send them to Airbus." (Bauer added that he does not own shares in or have a rating on any airplane manufacturer or airline. However, Bauer does have frequent flier miles/points in American Airlines (NYSE: AMR).)

European Union-based Airbus, Boeing's chief competitor, has a viable competitor to the 787, the A350. While underscoring that the A350 is not as fuel-efficient, nor as creature comfort-filled as the 787, "its range and flight characteristics are more than sufficient to supplant 787 orders," Bauer said.

"We're talking about tens of billions of dollars in future airplane orders that could potentially go from the 787 to the A350. That's a seismic shift both in terms of commercial aviation market share and economically," Bauer said. "That's something both Boeing and the union need to keep in mind as this contract vote is finished."

Economic Analysis: The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union is one of the few unions left in the U.S. with considerable leverage vis-à-vis a major U.S. corporation. That said, for reasons stated above by analyst Bauer, and given anemic U.S. economic growth elsewhere, it's in all parties' interests to arrive at a fair contract, as soon as possible.