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Hypothesis
- 1. Seminar Presentation on Research Hypotheses BY: Gizachew Asrat (Ph.D., Candidate) Department of Political Science Punjabi University, Patiala, India Nov, 2016
- 2. INTRODUCTION Research in common parlance refers to a search for knowledge. One can also define research as a scientific and systematic search for pertinent information on a specific topic. Research comprises Defining and redefining problems, Formulating hypothesis or suggested solutions; Collecting, organising and evaluating data; Making deductions and reaching conclusions; and At last carefully testing the conclusions to determine whether they fit the formulating hypothesis. Having this in mind lets come to the idea of research hypothesis.
- 3. Cont…. 1. Definition of Research Hypotheses The Etymological meaning, according to Kumar Singh (2006), of hypothesis is from two Greek roots: Hypo + thesis = Hypothesis Hypo means: tentative or subject to verification composition of two or more variables which is to be verified ‘Thesis’ means: statement about solution of a problem. position of these variables in the specific frame of reference
- 4. Continuation So hypothesis is: a tentative statement about the solution of the problem. the composition of some variables which have some specific position or role of the variables i.e. to be verified empirically a brilliant guess about the solution of a problem A research hypothesis is a tentative answer to a research problem, expressed in the form of a clearly stated relation between the Variable.
- 5. Continuation Why a tentative answer or solution for a research problem? Because they can be verified only after they have been tested empirically. Hypothesis is a more formal means of stating expected research outcomes, more firmly fixing the direction of a study. Kerlinger (1986) hypothesis is a conjectural/unproven statement of the relationship between two or more variables. o According to Grinnell: A hypothesis is written in such a way that it can be proven or disproven by valid and reliable data – it is in order to obtain these data that we perform our study (1988: 200)
- 6. Continuation According to Ranjit Kumar (2014:98), hypotheses bring clarity, specificity and focus to a research problem, but are not essential for a study. You can conduct a valid investigation without constructing a single formal hypothesis. How many hypotheses a researcher should have in a single research? Within the context of a research study, you can construct as many hypotheses as you consider to be appropriate.
- 7. Continuation Important terminologies in a hypothesis: 1) Variable: a characteristic that can vary from one unit of analysis to another or for one unit of analysis over time 2) Dependent variable: a variable that a researcher sees as being affected or influenced by another variable 3) Independent variable: a variable that a researcher sees as affecting or influencing another variable 4) Concepts: words or signs that refer to phenomena that share common characteristics 5) Conceptualization: the process of clarifying what we mean by a concept We can exemplify it with real research title.
- 8. Continuation If, for example, my title of investigation is on “education and vote” Then, The more education people have the more likely they are to vote. Here Vote is a dependent variable while education is the independent variable. Or As income inequality increase civil disobedience is more likely to occur i.e income IV and civil disobedience DV 2. Characteristics of A Good Research Hypothesis The wording of a hypothesis must have certain attributes that make it easier for a researcher to ascertain its validity. These attributes are: 1) A hypothesis should be simple, specific and conceptually clear For example: The average age of the male students in this class is higher than that of the female students
- 9. Continuation 2) A hypothesis should be capable of verification 3) A hypothesis should be related to the existing body of knowledge 4) A hypothesis should be operationalisable and it should be empirically testable (‘God is Great’ is not a hypothesis) 5. Hypothesis should be amenable to testing within a reasonable time. One cannot spend a life-time collecting data to test it. 6. Hypothesis should be limited in scope and must be specific 7. Hypothesis should be stated as far as possible in most simple terms so that the same is easily understandable by all concerned
- 10. Continuation 2.1. Hypotheses in Qualitative Researches The differences in qualitative and quantitative research is the importance attached to and the extent of use of hypotheses when conducting a study. As qualitative studies are characterised by an emphasis on describing, understanding and exploring phenomena using categorical and subjective measurement procedures, so hypothesis is not practiced The non-specificity of the problem as well as methods and procedures which make not to formulate hypothesis However, it does not mean that you cannot construct hypotheses in qualitative research. In qualitative research, hypotheses are rarely stated at the outset, because most qualitative researchers believe social behaviour is complex and transitory, and does not consist of constant regularities. Human actions therefore do not follow ‘laws’.
- 11. Continuation Even within quantitative studies the importance attached to and the practice of formulating hypotheses vary markedly from one academic discipline to another. hypotheses are most prevalent in research relating to the establishment of causality of a phenomenon, where it becomes important to narrow the list of probable causes so that a specific cause-and-effect relationship can be studied. In the social sciences formulation of hypotheses is mostly dependent on the researcher and the academic discipline
- 12. Continuation Kerlinger and Lee (2000 cited in Thomas, 2002: 30-35) suggest two criteria for acceptable hypotheses: a) A hypothesis should be statements of possible relationships between variables, and b) These statements should imply how they are to be tested. 4. Types of Hypothesis According to Ranjit Kumar (2014), theoretically there should be only one type of hypothesis that is the research hypothesis – the basis of your investigation.
- 13. Continuation There are two broad categories of hypothesis: 1. Research hypotheses; 2. Alternate hypotheses. The main function of alternative hypothesis is to explicitly specify the relationship that will be considered as true in case the research hypothesis proves to be wrong. Alternate hypothesis is the opposite of the research hypothesis. Conventionally, a null hypothesis, or hypothesis of no difference, is formulated as an alternate hypothesis. Ways to formulate hypotheses are:
- 14. Continuation For example: Suppose you want to study the smoking pattern in a community in relation to gender differentials. The following hypotheses could be constructed: 1. There is no significant difference in the proportion of male and female smokers in the study population_ null hypothesis usually written as Ho. 2. A greater proportion of females than males are smokers in the study population_ hypothesis of difference. 3. A total of 60 per cent of females and 30 per cent of males in the study population are smokers_ a hypothesis of point- prevalence.
- 15. Continuation 4. There are twice as many female smokers as male smokers in the study population_ a hypothesis of association. 4.1. Testing of Hypothesis Testing of hypothesis employs statistical procedures in which the investigator draws inferences about the population from a study sample. To test a hypothesis you need to go through a process that comprises three phases: (1) constructing a hypothesis; (2) gathering appropriate evidence; and (3) analysing evidence to draw conclusions as to its validity It is only after analysing the evidence that you can conclude whether your hunch or hypothesis was true or false.
- 16. Continuation Incorrect conclusions (errors in testing hypothesis) about the validity of a hypothesis may be drawn if: The study design selected is faulty; The sampling procedure adopted is faulty; The method of data collection is inaccurate; The analysis is wrong; The statistical procedures applied are inappropriate; or The conclusions drawn are incorrect Any, some or all, of this making conclusions misleading.
- 17. Continuation 5. The Importance of Hypothesis A hypothesis serves the following functions: 1. The formulation of a hypothesis provides a study with focus. It tells you what specific aspects of a research problem to investigate. 2. A hypothesis tells you what data to collect and what not to collect, thereby providing focus to the study.
- 18. Continuation 3. As it provides a focus, the construction of a hypothesis enhances objectivity in a study. 4. A hypothesis may enable you to add to the formulation of theory. It enables you to conclude specifically what is true or what is false. 6. Sources of Hypothesis The major sources of hypotheses are: 1. Specialization of an educational field. 2. Programme of reading: Published studies, abstracts, research journals. Hand books, seminars on the issue, current trends on the research area
- 19. Continuation 3. Instructional programmes persuaded. 4. Analyse of the area studied 5. Considering existing practices and needs 6. Extension of the investigation 7. Offshoots of research studies in the field Therefore, in general speaking, in most studies the hypothesis will be based upon either previous studies or once own or someone else’s observations.
- 20. Thank You !!