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A 2.5-3 Week Look at the Braves' MiLB Prospects


This will be quick & won't include anything really in depth. It's just about what prospects are off to good & bad starts to the year (I'm not going to bother mentioning the guys off to so-so starts, unless there's something notable):

First up are batters (listed by order of wRC+):

  • Workinger (199 wRC+) - He's at most a fringe prospect in the corner OF spots. He's off to a great start after resuming things in A+. He struggled in 201 PA in A+ to conclude '23 (a 52 wRC+), w/ an uncharacteristically high K% (31.8%), a very low Walk% (4.5%), & very little power (.084 ISO). However, all things have turned in a very positive direction here early in '24 - 13.7% K%, 15.7% Walk%, & .250 ISO. And, from a batted ball perspective he's cut about 7.5% off his GB%. So, elevating better certainly helps. If he keeps this up, then the organization will have no choice, but to test him in AA at some point soon.
  • Kilpatrick (176 wRC+) - He's definitely a back of a top-30 prospect due to his plus speed & potentially plus CF defense. He spent all of '23 in A+, where he wasn't good, but he also wasn't terrible (an 89 wRC+), which is why he's starting his 2nd consecutive season in A+. Here early in '24 he's definitely riding a bit of a BABIP wave (.462). However, he's pretty much doubled his ISO (.212), which leads me to think there's good EV numbers supporting the BABIP. The two areas of concern early are him only having a 5.3% Walk% & his GB% increasing 6.5%. He's going to the opposite field a ton here early on (52.5% Oppo%). So, maybe he's being pitched away a ton & in time he'll get more stuff that he can pull & elevate.
  • Alvarez Jr. (139 wRC+) - He's clearly among the top handful of position player prospects in the org (maybe even the top position player), so long as he continues to show himself as viable at SS. His good start is BABIPy w/ a .385, but does include a nice looking 19% Walk% & corresponding 19% K%. The unfortunate bit is no power (.020 ISO) & almost no fly balls (15.4%). His high BABIP is being fueled by a ridiculous 38.5% LD% (the highest in the entire org, including the big league club, where Kelenic's is really high). The AA Southern League is notoriously known to sap power. So, Nacho's got a tough hill to climb if he's going to show some pop, but turning more ground balls & line drives into fly balls would at least give us a chance to see where he is in the ability to drive the ball department.
  • Paolini (101 wRC+) - The toolsy, former prep product continues to be fringey as a prospect & he's off to one of those so-so starts from a wRC+ perspective as he repeats A+. However, there's stuff I like - Walk% is up to 18.4%, K% is down to 18.4%, ISO (.200) is nearly twice what it was last season, he's getting no BABIP luck (.174), but is still off to a decent enough start from a production standpoint, & his FB% is up over 10%. So, there's some encouraging enough underlying stuff going on here despite the so-so start in wRC+.
  • Taveras (77 wRC+) - The athletic, but raw now fringey SS prospect is off to a bad start. The already bad K% continues to climb (45.7%). The one positive is that his FB% is up nearly 6%, but he's not making enough contact for him elevating better to really mean anything.
  • Benitez (63 wRC+) - The raw, & now supposedly bigger bodied, SS prospect is off to a rough start in his first dip into full season ball. His K% is up to 38.8% (an over 16% increase from rookie ball last year). His ISO (.067) is about half what it was last year. He's not elevating at all (20% FB% & a 20% IFFB% - does this mean he hasn't yet hit a FB to the OF?). Defensively his supposedly bigger body has committed 8 E in 11 G. The BABIP being pretty good @ .346 might mean his ton of ground balls are being hit kind of hard (or A-ball IF defense is just bad). So, maybe his EV's are high (or it's just bad defense). That's about the only potential silver lining I can maybe point to here & even that's probably a reach.
  • Waddell (54 wRC+) - The bat first IF prospect is off to a rough start in AAA to be begin the season. He's simply not utilizing his bat to ball skills to generate good contact (a .277 xwOBA). His BABIP (.245) is laughably low for a guy w/ his bat to ball skills, but he simply hasn't impacted the ball well enough to get it thru the IF much thus far (86.2 MPH average EV).
  • Ogans (49 wRC+) - The fringey IF prospect is really struggling in his first taste of the AA Southern League. He has yet to draw a walk & his ISO's just .023. The only positive I can find is that he's error free while playing both 2B & 3B here in the early going.
  • Drake (22 wRC+) - The toolsy OF prospect is drowning during his first taste full season ball. He's K'ing over half the time w/ no power to speak of (.050 ISO). His Walk% is nice enough (almost 13%). He is elevating better (FB% is up over 9%). However, he got hurt while legging out his only XBH of the season & he could be out for a while. Maybe the down time w/ a bum wheel will allow him to get in some additional hitting instruction.
Now for the pitchers (listed by order of FIP & only considering guys w/ enough IP to qualify for leaderboards):
  • Murphy (2.08 FIP) - The prominent prospect is off to a great start. His K% is over 40%. His Walk% is only 9%. The only ding is maybe the FB% (58.1% is high). However, even w/ that his xFIP is 2.58 & allowing a lot of FB's probably wouldn't begin to catch up to him anyway until AAA. So, there's plenty of time.
  • Baumann (3.11 FIP) - The very young prospect is off to a nice start. His K% (22%) isn't great, but it's starting in a good enough spot. His Walk% is at 8.5%. That's pretty darn good for as young as he is & is a testament to his level of athleticism given his very large frame. His GB% is excellent @ 64.1% & his xFIP is a solid 3.65.
  • Schwellenbach (3.31 FIP) - The now approaching older prospect is off to a nice enough start. His K% (23.8%) & Walk% (6.3%) are nice enough, but they aren't quite as good as they were when he closed the '23 season on a high note. The GB% is nice (51.2%) & the xFIP is a solid 3.53.
  • Waldrep (4.89 FIP) - His first full pro season is off to an up & down start. The FIP isn't particularly good due to his K% being down (18.5%). However, the Walk% isn't bad @ 9.5% & the GB% is nice @ 55.3%. He's gotten BABIP'd terribly (.467) & has suffered in HR/FB (20%). So, his xFIP works out to pretty solid @ 3.70. A unique thing is that his K% is less than half of Murphy's, but Waldrep's SwStr% is actually a tick ahead of Murphy's. So, he seems to have gotten bitten by the sequencing bug a bit & the BABIP monster has gotten him at the same time.
Note that Dodd & Maier both fall into the so-so category. So, I didn't mention them above, but I do love Maier's org best 70.6% GB% (his GB/FB is nearly 5!). Maier's got the same HR/FB thing as Waldrep. Dodd's meh start is about BABIP (.385) & a Walk% that's too high (11.5%). I do like where Dodd is in the GB% department (57.6%). And, I'm still fascinated by Savant's pitch classification troubles for Dodd. His changeup & sweeper (I'm calling it a curve) each have a nice Whiff% of 32.3% & 50% respectively.

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Battery Power.