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As the Iraq inquiry and 'glaciergate' show, the truth is slippery

What makes the climate change row enjoyably different is that the defendants are not the usual villains of a mainstream liberal narrative

This may be an eccentric view, but I am increasingly fascinated by the parallels I detect between two controversies currently dominating the news pages of the Guardian: Sir John Chilcot's Iraq war inquiry and "Glaciergate".

In the one case you have Tony Blair, George Bush and others accused of rigging the intelligence on WMD to justify a costly invasion of Iraq that has resulted in many deaths, injuries and damage – and cost a great deal of money that could have been put to better purposes.

Their case has been dissected and will be found wanting by the inquiry's eventual verdict, though not sufficiently to justify the bloodlust of their principal detractors – whose own case is full of holes too. I have yet to read a wholly persuasive article on the subject, including my own.

What makes the climate change row enjoyably different is that the defendants in the dock are not the villains of a mainstream liberal narrative, but the supposed good guys. Not powerful politicians, western and white, but climate change scientists, the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its Indian chairman Dr Rajendra Pachauri.

We saw this process at work at the Copenhagen summit. When it failed to fulfil its hopes – by no means a total failure, as is now clearer – China, India and assorted allies in the developing world, Venezuela to the fore, blamed the usual suspects, egged on by aid agencies, green lobbies, civil society groups.

In the Guardian Mark Lynas, an eyewitness to some of the manoeuvres, wrote a fierce attack – enjoyable but intemperate – on China and what Lenin would have called the "useful idiots" who took their "blame the west" line.

In the Financial Times the other day Fiona Harvey did the same and got some backing – and some stick – in yesterday's letters column. Keep NGOs away next time, Harvey suggested; they do too much harm. Heaven forbid ...

In his interview with the Guardian today Pachauri sounds a dead ringer for Tony Blair. He won't apologise for mistakes made on his watch and believes that the mistakes do not affect the "basic truth": human activity and the use of fossil fuels are causing global temperatures to rise to dangerous levels.

Why, there's even a dirty dossier in the case, those unvetted articles – what Pachauri calls the "grey literature" – which crept into IPCC reports and led to claims that the Himalayan glacial belt is melting like April sleet in Trafalgar Square. It doesn't change the basic truth, says the doc, who is an engineer by trade.

He's also cross because some of his critics – I assume he means the likes of Christopher Booker and Dr Richard North, who write a lot on this topic in the Sunday Telegraph – have said unkind things about him and his Delhi-based Energy and Resource Institute (Teri).

A lavish lifestyle? £1,000 suits? "It's ridiculous and it's a bunch of lies," he told today's Guardian. And "there is a tailor who stitches all my suits for 2,200 rupees (£30)". I don't think Tony Blair's suits are £30 jobs any more, but many unkind things said about him are untrue too.

Whenever there's open debate about important things, people get personal. Fred Pearce, the environment journalist and author, says in today's highly-entertaining account that scientists like to portray their work as "divorced from everyday jealousies, rivalries and tribalism of human relationships".

That's generous of him because science is notorious for petty rivalries, as Bill Bryson's Short History of Nearly Everything reminded non-specialist readers in hilarious terms.

More solemnly, so did Richard Holmes's The Age of Wonder. And is it true that the Nobel committee initially offered the 1903 prize to Pierre Curie, who insisted that Marie get it too?

So underlying the details of the surface row is the more important question of the hacked emails from the UEA's climate change labs.

Do they demonstrate organised attempts to discredit fellow scientists who question the validity of some data that contradicts the main thrust: that man-made activity is heating the planet?

Reading Pearce's measured account in the Guardian, I think they do, and that efforts were also made to marginalise – as Clare Short might put it – scientific magazines that gave house room to doubters.

Read it for yourself, read the UEA's defence, and decide. But history points that way; they're always at it, just as bad as footballers' wives. Why should we be surprised? Scientists are human too.

For their part I am sure that climate change sceptics have been unscrupulous in the selective quotations taken from the hacked emails. Populist politicians like Sarah Palin, who don't know a test tube from an ironing board (I doubt she uses either) have piled in, populist pundits too. They always do.

What do we learn from all this? That Professor Mike Mann's famous "hockey stick" curve – the one that shows temperatures rising rapidly in the industrialised 20th century – was highly controversial at the time (1999).

Why? Because a colleague in the tree-ring branch of the business ("paleoclimate research" is a new term to me) had inconveniently discovered that the 11th century may have been just as warm – without a single medieval Aga contributing to the process.

Remind you of anything, all this chat? Of course it does. The shifty language in the emails, the self-justification, the underlying belief in a cause that justifies corner-cutting, the anger of critics who say that we risk spending vast sums combating climate change on at least some false premises.

The awkward fact is that the critics have scored some hits here and – finally – forced the climate change lobby to address some bad habits and even to admit error and worse. The same process is under way at the Chilcot inquiry.

I haven't checked the files, but my sense is that the mainstream media, orthodox in its belief that climate change is the great issue of our time that must be tackled, was slow to respond to the early stages of the UEA email row.

It's always hard to challenge orthodox thinking in any institution; in a university, firm or even newspaper and TV station, it's the often quickest way to get marginalised and ignored.

But people persevere. Good for them. So I'm delighted to see Pearce's level-headed critique now appearing in the Guardian, where we are occasionally a bit right-on in green matters. To his credit George Monbiot was quicker than most to realise it was serious back in December. I hope green readers do not mind the controversy too much.

For my own part, I share the orthodox view that manmade activity is a major contributor to global warming – or climate change as we are now required to call it. But I also reluctantly shared the view – which was more openly contested from day one than the hockey stick graph – that the 2003 invasion was the least-worst option available in shifty UN world where millions are left to suffer and die because we don't get out act together.

A bad call? Maybe. Let's see what Chilcot says. But Glaciergate confirms in a very different context that the truth is slippery and many-sided, that the good guys and the bad guys are not always the stereotypes we think they are and not all on one side. Scepticism is always in order, but it's a two-way process.

That doesn't stop me pondering evidence to Chilcot with regret – though Simon Hoggart's Vicky Pollard take on Clare Short's evidence was cheering. I am also enjoying the exposure of moving temperature gauges in rural China and other skulduggery, hastily covered up. Those scientists, eh, who'd have thought it?

After Mad Men and Mo, The Thick of it and The Sopranos perhaps the TV networks could do worse than check the boffins out for a sex-violence-and-tree-rings series.

Working title? Jolly Hockey Sticks.

• This article was amended on 4 February 2010. In the original, Fred Pearce was said to be a former Whitehall environment adviser. This has been corrected.


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  • 1971thistle 1971thistle

    3 Feb 2010, 12:01PM

    MW

    I know from my own job (in communications/PR - call it what you will) that sometimes people become convinced that their plans or actions are so clearly for the common good that no sane person could doubt their worth.

    Any disagreement or questioning is met with incredulity at the inability to see the benefits, and leads to them being excluded as a discordant voice. Group think begins to take hold. I suspect with both Iraq and the global warming scientists, this is what happened. They genuinely believe in the value of what they are trying to do, leading to a both a lack of objectivity and a lack of empathy with other stakeholders. This blinds them to the fact that other audiences may not see the consequences in quite the same golden glow. (subconsciously, they also feel that the benefits success to them personally, in terms of esteem, are a strong incentive)

    In the case of Iraq, it appears that Mr. Blair is not so much wearing rose-coloured spectacles as having had some kind of attiduinal radial keratotomy to lend the rosy hue permanent

  • MartinFulbright MartinFulbright

    3 Feb 2010, 12:25PM

    Not powerful politicians, western and white, but climate change scientists, the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its Indian chairman Dr Rajendra Pachauri.

    How do you define power nowadays? Pachauri has absoutely no oversight, no one can sack him, maybe Ban Ki Moon, but hes not likely to is he?

    At least democratic politicians, white or otherwise (hello Obama), have some kind of standard to live up to (see the expenses scandal) and are dependant on votes at some stages of their careers.

    Pachauri is an example of a new unaccountable millionaire expert elite that has crept up on us - very powerful if you ask me.

    BTW "Pearce's measured account" is indeed interesting, however it is even more interesting when you factor in that he is implicated as the source of the original Himalayan quote in the New Scientist that got passed around hand to hand until the source became murky enough it became a fact from the IPCC.

  • OilOilOil OilOilOil

    3 Feb 2010, 12:35PM

    Why on earth do people think that the intelligence was "mistaken" why don't people even consider the possibility that it was the intelligence services who 'sexed up' the dossier?

    Look at that 'intelligence' - be very afraid they have WMD's,
    the war will be quick, you'll be welcomed as conquering heros.

    Who was feeding this BS into the govt system? It's like those programs you see on television where a group of 'leaders' sit in a room and play out some scenario, terrorist dirty bomb or whatever.

    Is this real or exercise?

    What are the links between intelligence and corporate interests? like oil, weapons manufacture and high finance? The CIA is said to be run solely in the interests of Wall St so why not MI6 and the square mile? Isn't that what these whitehall Mandarins actually mean when they say 'In the National Interest"?

    Aggressively and 'pre-emptively' Invading a sovereign nation was certainly not in my interest.

    Wasn't the real 'threat' from Saddam not WMD, but making deals with the French and Russians? that UK 'interests' would be left out of the oil pie carve up?

    Boycott Oil.

  • notbored notbored

    3 Feb 2010, 12:42PM

    I am also enjoying the exposure of moving temperature gauges in rural China and other skulduggery, hastily covered up. Those scientists, eh, who'd have thought it?

    This "exposure", as you call it, is an allegation which may be founded, or may not be. You repeat it here as though it were uncontested fact. Which is - in the context of an alleged scientific fraud - needless to say, profoundly irresponsible.

    the 2003 invasion was the least-worst option available in shifty UN world where millions are left to suffer and die because we don't get out act together.

    Ahhh, so that's why millions are left to suffer and die. It's because the West is so complacent. We effectively run (and derail) economies through our monopoly at the IMF and the World Bank, we remove uncongenial governments at a stroke and prop favourable ones, we oversee a system of international trade that perpetuates under-development. And the suffering and death of millions comes about because we're so devoted to upholding international law - and because we're so complacent.

    Overall, there is a more reasonable comparison to be made. Was the Iraq war pursued on the basis of a preconceived agenda? Undoubtedly. Is the evidence for man-made climate change based on such an agenda? Undoubtedly not. Is the core scientific evidence - that anthropogenic climate change is happening - solid? Yes. Was the core claim - that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction in Iraq - substantiated? No.

  • fkhjgwerkjbfhrkghe fkhjgwerkjbfhrkghe

    3 Feb 2010, 1:13PM

    Ed Milliband's share price must fall every time he opens his mouth regarding
    climate change, when challenged - rarely on the BBC - by awkward evidence
    questioning his views, he resorts to the words - ' I believe ' - just like Blair did over Iraq. He - understandably - relies on expert advice, but dare not step outside this tiny ( yes tiny ) clique and ask for a balancing view.

  • BlueRock BlueRock

    3 Feb 2010, 3:58PM

    > ...global warming ? or climate change as we are now required to call it.

    The IPCC was formed in 1988. Anyone know what the 'CC' stands for? I find it telling that White rolls out that old Denier canard.

    This article is just another stuffed with sophistry and insinuation that would rather construct a soap opera containing Pachauri's suits than focus on what is important.

    What is important? It's not intemperate language in stolen emails, it's not a single error - caught by the *scientists* themselves - in a massive scientific synthesis, it's not hysterical conspiracy theories of global scientific fraud - it is the core science. And that core science remains completely without credible scientific doubt:

    1. humans are burning fossil fuels; 2. fossil fuels are heating the planet; 3. range of predictions go from very bad to apocalyptic

    Anthropogenic climate change is as good as fact and is confirmed as such by every national science academy of every industrialised country on the planet. And yet some people are being swayed by the output of talking heads and the propaganda of individuals and organisations that have been exposed as completely false time and time again.

    If the standard that is trying to be pushed on to Pachauri and Professor Jones, along with calls for their resignation, were applied to the 'sceptics', every news outlet on the planet would be gutted, every 'sceptics' blog would be deleted, economists and politicians would be strewn across pavements with begging cups.

    The term 'useful idiot' describes someone who has been fooled by the lies, distraction and propaganda of some powerful entity. Nowhere is that affliction more apparent and widespread than in the climate change 'debate'.

  • Justice4Rinka Justice4Rinka

    3 Feb 2010, 4:30PM

    1. humans are burning fossil fuels; 2. fossil fuels are heating the planet; 3. range of predictions go from very bad to apocalyptic

    Unfortunately, BlueRock, the first is true, the second is speculation and the third ignores the possibility that climate change is inevitable and possibly beneficial.

    Good effort though.

    As one of the cooling deniers wrote, it's now the climate Battle of the Bulge. Have you realised you're the Germans?

  • ScouseBilly ScouseBilly

    3 Feb 2010, 5:10PM

    @notbored

    I disagree wth you. Both Iraq and AGW ran to a preconceived political agenda.
    Trying googling the Club of Rome and Maurice Strong.

    Michael White. You could look more closely at the CDP (Carbon Disclosure Project). The point being we skeptics are way ahead of the game. The DT James Dellingpole blog "community" comprises highly qualified people, for example. Equally Climate Audit and WUWT.

    And as for the science, this is a must. CERN's current experiments are highly illuminating.

    http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1181073/?ln=fr

  • ScouseBilly ScouseBilly

    3 Feb 2010, 5:18PM

    To give an idea of how the climate scientists surpressed dissenters funding, not just the publication of articles and research, see this article from early 2007:

    http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=975f250d-ca5d-4f40-b687-a1672ed1f684

  • DodgyGeezer DodgyGeezer

    4 Feb 2010, 12:55AM

    The Guardian has just announced that it is running this series of climate change pieces to claim that, though there may be human errors, the science is not affected.

    "The Guardian's editorial line is that global warming is happening and caused by human actions.." see the comment from JRanderson at:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/03/yamal-data-climate-change-hacked-email

    So this is not a true investigation. It is a damage limitation exercise, intended to sacrifice some scientists if necessary to ensure that the main activist message remains unsullied.

    Has anyone seen a newspaper behave as cynically as a politician before? Now's your chance...

  • DodgyGeezer DodgyGeezer

    4 Feb 2010, 12:56AM

    The Guardian has just announced that it is running this series of climate change pieces to claim that, though there may be human errors, the science is not affected.

    "The Guardian's editorial line is that global warming is happening and caused by human actions.."

    see the comment from JRanderson at:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/03/yamal-data-climate-change-hacked-email

    So this is not a true investigation. It is a damage limitation exercise, intended to sacrifice some scientists if necessary to ensure that the main activist message remains unsullied.

    Has anyone seen a newspaper behave as cynically as a politician before? Now's your chance...

  • BlueRock BlueRock

    4 Feb 2010, 3:06AM

    Justice4Rinka:

    > Unfortunately, BlueRock, the first is true, the second is speculation and the third ignores the possibility that climate change is inevitable and possibly beneficial.

    It's amazing what you can convince yourself of when totally and steadfastly ignorant of a subject.

  • Pattanayak Pattanayak

    4 Feb 2010, 6:49AM

    The more we know about the Pachauri episode, the worse it gets. Now he says he won?t quit even though he admits IPCC?s credibility has been severely hit. He compounds his unprofessional behaviour by hinting at vested interests behind calls for his resignation. His statements to the media justifying his continuance in the post are more damaging than the original blunder on climate change. He is not only wooly of face but wooly of mind as well. His relaxed attitude to rectitude is sickening. But the message is needle sharp and painfully clear: he must demit office forthwith. No amount of obfuscatory sophistry will hide his culpability. His continued presence in IPCC will only be making a catastrophe out the present crisis. Meanwhile, it is a paradox worthy of a thesis to find out how unworthy worms climb to positions of eminence despite having a well-developed winnowing system at the UN.

  • JunkkMale JunkkMale

    4 Feb 2010, 9:24AM

    the truth is slippery

    Hence there being some wisdom in those who like their science from scientists they like, being a little more circumspect in using words like settled.

    Or unleashing the hounds if questioned or simply called, correctly, to account.

    This, at least, is more reasoned. The latest from Sunny & Giles... are not.

    An odd strategy for a paper seeking credibility in a complex, evolving debate to adopt.

  • trevorgleet trevorgleet

    4 Feb 2010, 11:29AM

    Yes both cases reveal that people who believe in a cause sometimes get carried away and twist facts and abuse power to do what they think is right. This is not exactly a novelty in public affairs.

    But beyond that, the cases are utterly different. There is a massive body of evidence from a huge range of different places and natural phenomena, collected and interpreted by lots of disparate people and organisations, with a wide range of different personal, political and economic agendas, which overwhelmingly points to the same broad conclusion: that human releases of greenhouse gases are driving a rate of climate change that is already causing a great deal of human suffering and insecurity and is likely to cause a great deal more if unchecked.

    There is just no comparison between all this and the flimsy bits of gossip, hearsay and speculation on the basis of which, it now turns out, Tony Blair and a handful of his allies essentially tricked and bullied the country to go to war. Even if you still think going to war was the right decision, you really shouldn't suggest such a grotesque and absurd equivalence in the quality of evidence on the two issues. Not even as a hook to hang an opinion piece on.

  • Pattanayak Pattanayak

    4 Feb 2010, 1:36PM

    The fatuity of Dr. Pachauri?s statements to the media in defence of the indefensible increases with every reading. Admitting mistakes and unwilling to resign is a new definition of ethics only he can formulate, like the sexed-up climate report he compiled. Some people are simply born evil. How can he brazen it out? He is in an ethical black hole created all by himself. What hampers him are his attention-seeking craze and the love of lucre. Such egotistical midgets are an existential threat to all that is known by decency and probity in public life.

  • kiwiest kiwiest

    4 Feb 2010, 1:53PM

    I've posted a comment to Fred Pearce today but it will be buried under hundreds of others, he'll never read it. Could you alert him to this comment Michael? I've tried following through the links of this IPCC glaciergate scandal.

    Fred Pearce is writing today in The Guardian that Pachauri is refusing to apologize. This is the same Fred Pearce who broke the story in The New Scientist last year that the IPCC evidence was not solid science, but rather simply based on an article published in a 1999 copy of The New Scientist, written by .... Fred Pearce.

    In that article, Fred Pearce based a story that "Himalayan glaciers will all melt by 2035" on a study done by an academic named Hasnain. Is it this study:
    http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/Hasnain_ICSI_1999.pdf?

    If so, the 2035 claim isn't in the summary. It's not Fred Pearce's own, is it?

  • ScouseBilly ScouseBilly

    4 Feb 2010, 2:59PM

    i see the new software tweak has arrived.

    Comments are now deleted in their entirety without leaving a trace.
    Except I know people who are keeping records, Guardian mods.

    Comment is Free? More like Stalinism....

  • notbored notbored

    5 Feb 2010, 1:31AM

    Incidentally, David Morrison has done a good job of putting together the information freely available in the public domain on the events leading up to the Iraq war over at Spinwatch:

    http://www.spinwatch.org.uk/-articles-by-category-mainmenu-8/51-iraq/5340-the-invasion-of-iraq-the-basic-facts

    The sheer absurdity of comparing Phil Jones and Tony Blair and then saying "well, I believe Iraq was the right call, and I believe in climate change" is just beyond belief. The whole edifice, the core of the justification for the Iraq war was founded on lies, as we now know simply as a matter of fact, of public record. Up against that, you have one scientist whose co-worker may have cut a significant corner in his work on a marginal piece of scientific literature that has already been re-analysed. Blair's case had a massive, glaring hole in the middle, and was indisputably built on a preconceived agenda that necessitated lying to the public. The climate science has a couple of question marks over old side-issues not even relevant to the main body of the evidence.

    Another difference, if you'll indulge me: the IPCC's "2035" claim was buried hundreds of pages into the second 1000-page volume of a four-volume report, and barely mentioned in the media when the report was released. The 45-minute claim was pushed as hard as possible in every news outlet possible.

  • JBowers JBowers

    5 Feb 2010, 2:00AM

    Blue Rock said: "If the standard that is trying to be pushed on to Pachauri and Professor Jones, along with calls for their resignation, were applied to the 'sceptics', every news outlet on the planet would be gutted, every 'sceptics' blog would be deleted, economists and politicians would be strewn across pavements with begging cups. "

    One article written by sceptics Douglass and Christy entitled 'A Climatology Conspiracy', where they argue that an examination of the "climategate" (Swift Hack) emails proves publication their work was delayed and interfered with, and accuse fellow climate scientist Ben Santer.

    Santer has now rebutted their claims, and with all guns blazing in an open letter. The following PDF is the open letter which gives a detailed rundown of why their allegations were baseless:

    Response to ?A Climatology Conspiracy?? B.D. Santer

  • thesnufkin thesnufkin

    5 Feb 2010, 11:49AM

    scientists like to portray their work as "divorced from everyday jealousies, rivalries and tribalism of human relationships

    ".

    Yeah, right. Anybody read James Watson's "Double Helix" in which "its author seemingly caring only about the glory of priority and willing to appropriate data from others surreptitiously in order to obtain it." (Mods - that's a direct lift from Wikipedia so lpease don't censor me)

    That said he was right and there aren't many 'DNA deniers' about.

  • MikeWhitereplies MikeWhitereplies

    7 Feb 2010, 11:57AM

    Staff Staff

    Morning stragglers. Of course the Iraq/ Glaciergate comparison is very limited, but it does throw up useful points, not least the adamant tone of comments which brook no dissent. We all make mistakes, as i did when I made the wrong Pearce a climate adviser to the last Tory governmernt ( see correction above). I checked it, but not hard enough.

    Amidst charge and counter-charge between " climate change deniers" ( a nasty loaded term) and " climate alarmists" I too am persuaded that manmade carbon emissions is heating the atmosphere.

    But I am also dimly aware - equally dimly you might say - that other significant factors are also in play, that this has happened before, and that we might be wise to accept that our understanding is imperfect.

    To that extent those who say the Iraq war was "all about oil" or the big corporate interests are also more confident than the known facts allow. Remind me again, why would Tony Blair "trick and bully" the country into war, if he didn't believe what he was saying. It has cast a large shadow over everything else he did.

    I'm not quite sure how five days of double page articles amounts to a "damage limitation exercise" though I did say that liberal media outlets seem to have been slow to take the controversy seriously.

    ScouseBilly, I don't know what you're on about, but as i never tire of saying, don't be self-indulgent about thinking you live in a "Stalinist" state. You'll know when you do because they'll read your post and come for you in the middle of the night. Then they may come back for your family...

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