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Climate science emails: witnesses and terms of reference

Who are the scientists and sceptics and what will they be asked by MPs on the science and technology committee today?

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Climate emails and select committee enquiry

Witnesses, clockwise from top left, Richard Thomas, Professor John Beddington, Professor Julia Slingo, Professor Phil Jones, (from bottom right) Lord Lawson of Blaby, Professor Edward Acton, Professor Bob Watson and Dr Benny Peiser. Photograph: guardian.co.uk

I'll say right now that nothing in the emails undermines the case for man-made global warming. Instead it's all about how the scientists and the climate sceptics behaved.

The running order of witnesses is below, but first let's see what's on the agenda.

Committee's terms of reference

1. What are the implications of the disclosures for the integrity of scientific research?
This will tackle the allegations of misconduct made by critics on the basis of the leaked emails (there's an archive of them here). Probably the most important here is whether the scientists and university did or did not comply with Freedom of Information (FOI) requests. The Information Commissioner's Office thinks not, saying FOI requests were "not dealt with as they should have been under the legislation". The UEA thinks it did.

Today's hearing should also cover allegations that:
• Scientists used a "trick" to "hide a decline" in temperature data derived from tree rings - this should be scotched as there is a perfectly good explanation
• Scientists tried to prevent the publication of papers that attacked their work - but were those papers too poor for publication anyway?
• Scientists based work on data from Chinese weather stations, but could not produce location data for those stations. Jones told the journal Nature last month that this was "not acceptable".

2. Are the terms of reference and scope of the independent review announced on 3 December 2009 by UEA adequate?
The UEA's inquiry is headed by Sir Muir Russell, who is appearing today. It will:
• Examine whether any "manipulation or suppression of data" took place, and whether this affected the scientific conclusions;
• Review how the UEA's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) deals with data and research results and their dissemination;
• Review CRU's compliance with the FOI laws;
• Review the security of the CRU holds - ie how did all those emails leak?
The UEA has also asked the Royal Society, Britain's premier scientific academy, to help reappraise the scientific conclusions of the CRU. The police are also investigating the leak of the emails.

3. How independent are the other two international data sets?
This is the one term of reference that the committee has set itself that touches directly on the science, and sticks out a bit to me. The CRU produces one of the three main global temperature records for the Earth. If there was something awry with this - which I think is unlikely - then the independence of the other two becomes important. They are produced by Nasa and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Witnesses

3.00pm. Lord Lawson, chairman, and Dr Benny Peiser, director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation
First up are the sceptics, presumably called in the interests of "balance", though neither are scientists. Lawson, a former chancellor of the exchequer, argues the cost of climate change action is prohibitive, and has described the 2006 Stern report, which concluded action now was actually cheaper, as "the shoddiest pseudo-scientific and pseudo-economic document any British government has ever produced". Peiser, a social anthropologist, said recently: "The scientific community is haemorr­haging integrity and authority at an unprecedented speed and scale."
3.30pm Richard Thomas. He was the Information Commissioner from December 2002 until June 2009, the period in which many of the FOI requests in question were lodged.
4.00pm Professor Phil Jones, director of the CRU and Professor Edward Acton, vice-chancellor, University of East Anglia
The key witnesses. Jones, who has stood down while the investigations take place, has said the affair has so traumatised him he had considered suicide. It's sure to be a difficult session for him, though he will be supported by the head of UEA.
4.40pm Sir Muir Russell, head of the independent climate change emails review
Russell's task will be to convince the committee that his inquiry is sufficiently robust.
5.00pm Professor John Beddington, the UK government chief scientific adviser, Professor Julia Slingo OBE, Met Office chief scientist, and Professor Bob Watson, chief scientist, Defra
The sessions ends with a triumvirate of scientific big beasts. Beddington has called on climate researchers to be more open when dealing with critics and transparent when they make errors. Slingo represents the Met Office, which has had some bad press of its own. Watson is the former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has also suffered negative headlines.


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Comments in chronological order

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  • jhudsy jhudsy

    1 Mar 2010, 1:55PM

    The submissions to the committee (found here ) make for a very depressing read. I browsed the first half dozen. Most seem to ignore the terms of reference, and instead spout on about how climate change isn't happening. If I were more paranoid, I'd say that Watts or McIntyre encouraged his followers to write in, and they did. But I'm not, so I won't.

    I do regret not submitting something myself though. Let's hope the panel knows more about the topic than most of the people writing in to it.

  • TBombadil TBombadil

    1 Mar 2010, 2:14PM

    I think I will write a book claiming Churchill was part of a world wide communist conspiracy to destroy Britain and install a Communist World Government run from Moscow. After all he did risk the lives of British sailors shipping arms to Russia during WW2 so he must have been Communist.

    I know there are thousands of historians and politicians who have a different view but they are also part of the conspiracy.

    Lord Lawson, a politician who studied politics, philosophy and economics at University but has no training, no background and very limited knowledge of science apparently knows better than all the professional scientists who have spent their lives studying global warming.

    Similarly I who have no training in history clearly must know more about history than all the historians who have spent their lives studying Churchill.

    Alternatively it might be better to listen to someone like Hansen who has a scientific background and has studied the subject when it comes to advice on global warming and the historian Martin Gilbert when it comes to discussing Churchill.

  • onthefence onthefence

    1 Mar 2010, 2:32PM

    jhudsy: The submissions to the committee (found here ) make for a very depressing read.

    Some are very odd indeed. The Institute of Physics' submission is very confused on the basic facts.

    They think that

    The lack of compliance has been confirmed by the findings of the Information Commissioner.

    The Information Commissioner hasn't made any "findings".
    The Information Commissioner's Office sent an email to a reporter, in which it accused CRU of wrongdoing.
    It's a rather odd way for the ICO to disseminate its views.

    The Institute of Physics seems to have based its submission on garbled press reports.

  • onthefence onthefence

    1 Mar 2010, 2:36PM

    TBombadil: Lord Lawson, a politician who studied politics, philosophy and economics at University but has no training, no background and very limited knowledge of science apparently knows better than all the professional scientists

    Many sceptics start with a political position, and work back from that to a belief that the scientific evidence must be wrong, somehow.

    They often don't even understand that they're disputing some very basic physics in their "scepticism".

  • DaveRH DaveRH

    1 Mar 2010, 2:46PM

    onthefence

    The Information Commissioner hasn't made any "findings".
    The Information Commissioner's Office sent an email to a reporter, in which it accused CRU of wrongdoing.
    It's a rather odd way for the ICO to disseminate its views.

    I think it was you that I was discussing this with on Friday, and we got around to a letter that the CRU had apparently received and confirmed that the UEA was not guilty of any wrong doing.

    The ICO, in response to the submission, published the letter and it plainly says no such thing. In fact, it says the opposite: the breach of FOIA rules was clear and only the statute of limitations (six months) in the law prevented further investigation as there was no prospect of prosecution.

    The UEA response was exactly the sort of thing which has led us to this point.

    I'd take the position that the Institute of Physics submission is incredibly damning. That's not to say that the UEA/CRU are manifestly guilty of wholesale corruption of the scientific process - but it appears that, on a limited individual basis at the least, they deliberately obstructed critics attempting to review their work.

  • onthefence onthefence

    1 Mar 2010, 2:53PM

    DaveRH: and we got around to a letter that the CRU had apparently received and confirmed that the UEA was not guilty of any wrong doing.

    No Dave, now you're lying, see.

  • jhudsy jhudsy

    1 Mar 2010, 2:57PM

    If this is what Jones et al. have to deal with, I can understand why they were frustrated... Pure comedy gold, but if you get this every day, it starts being annoying.

  • onthefence onthefence

    1 Mar 2010, 3:01PM

    DaveRH: and we got around to a letter that the CRU had apparently received and confirmed that the UEA was not guilty of any wrong doing.

    No Dave, here's the CRU statement I quoted:

    On 22 January 2010, the Information Commissioner's Office (ICO) released a statement to a journalist, which was widely misinterpreted in the media as a finding by the ICO that UEA had breached Section 77 of the FOIA by withholding raw data. A subsequent letter to UEA from the ICO (29 January 2010) indicated that no breach of the law has been established; that the evidence the ICO had in mind about whether there was a breach was no more than prima facie; and that the FOI request at issue did not concern raw data but private email exchanges.

    DaveRH: The ICO, in response to the submission, published the letter and it plainly says no such thing.

    Wrong on both counts Dave.
    CRU published the letter it received from the ICO, after getting ICO's permission, and it is on the UEA website.

    Correspondence between University of East Anglia and the Information Commissioner's Office

    Now try a simple comparison of the ICO letter and CRU's summary of it.

  • DaveRH DaveRH

    1 Mar 2010, 3:01PM

    onthefence

    No Dave, now you're lying, see.

    Really?

    The submission to the inquiry reads:

    3.7.6 On 22 January 2010, the Information Commissioner?s Office (ICO) released a statement to a journalist, which was widely misinterpreted in the media as a finding by the ICO that UEA had breached Section 77 of the FOIA by withholding raw data.

    A subsequent letter to UEA from the ICO (29 January 2010) indicated that no breach of the law has been established; that the evidence the ICO had in mind about whether there was a breach was no more than prima facie; and that the FOI request at issue did not concern raw data but private email exchanges.

    How would you interpret that, exactly? Even you stated that the ICO (note, not the UEA but the ICO) had cleared them. You even said (ironically): I doubt they've misreported it. That would be stupid.

  • onthefence onthefence

    1 Mar 2010, 3:09PM

    jhudsy: If this is what Jones et al. have to deal with, I can understand why they were frustrated...

    The Committee's been swamped by submissions from green-ink crackpots.
    It'll help them get an idea of what goes on in the "sceptic" mind, if nothing else.

  • GMofSomerset GMofSomerset

    1 Mar 2010, 3:13PM

    The Institute of Physics has finally compiled its reaction to the Climategate e-mails which stands independent of the findings of the information commissioner. For those that are interested the full text can be found here:

    Memorandum submitted by the Institute of Physics (CRU 39)

    It seems, quite rightly, that the IOP is worried not just about the damage to Climate Science but to damage caused by these people to the wider public belief in the scientific method.

  • GMofSomerset GMofSomerset

    1 Mar 2010, 3:15PM

    The Institute of Physics has finally compiled its reaction to the Climategate e-mails which stands independent of the findings of the information commissioner. For those that are interested the full text can be found here:

    Memorandum submitted by the Institute of Physics (CRU 39)

    It seems, quite rightly, that the IOP is worried not just about the damage to Climate Science but to damage caused by these people to the wider public belief in the scientific method.

  • onthefence onthefence

    1 Mar 2010, 3:16PM

    GMofSomerset: The Institute of Physics has finally compiled its reaction
    We've covered the IoP's submission, GM.
    It is very confused about the basic facts of the case.

  • GMofSomerset GMofSomerset

    1 Mar 2010, 3:16PM

    The Institute of Physics has finally compiled its reaction to the Climategate e-mails which stands independent of the findings of the information commissioner. For those that are interested the full text can be found here:

    Memorandum submitted by the Institute of Physics (CRU 39)

    It seems, quite rightly, that the IOP is worried not just about the damage to Climate Science but to damage caused by these people to the wider public belief in the scientific method.

  • onthefence onthefence

    1 Mar 2010, 3:18PM

    DaveRH: You even said (ironically): "I doubt they've misreported it. That would be stupid."

    What's misreported Dave?
    Given your "creative" summary of my post, it'll be interesting to see what you make of the ICO letter.

  • GMofSomerset GMofSomerset

    1 Mar 2010, 3:26PM

    The Institute of Physics has finally compiled its reaction to the Climategate e-mails which stands independent of the findings of the information commissioner. For those that are interested the full text can be found here:

    Memorandum submitted by the Institute of Physics (CRU 39)

    It seems, quite rightly, that the IOP is worried not just about the damage to Climate Science but to damage caused by these people to the wider public belief in the scientific method.

  • DaveRH DaveRH

    1 Mar 2010, 3:32PM

    From the ICO letter:

    The prima facie evidence from the published emails indicate an attempt to defeat disclosure by deleting informaiton. It is hard to imagine more cogent prima facie evidence. [...] In the event, the matter cannot be taken forward because of the statutory time limit.

    I'd say that tallies very well with the submission from the Institute of Physics, which states:

    The CRU e-mails as published on the internet provide prima facie evidence of determined and co-ordinated refusals to comply with honourable scientific traditions and freedom of information law. The principle that scientists should be willing to expose their ideas and results to independent testing and replication by others, which requires the open exchange of data, procedures and materials, is vital. The lack of compliance has been confirmed by the findings of the Information Commissioner. This extends well beyond the CRU itself - most of the e-mails were exchanged with researchers in a number of other international institutions who are also involved in the formulation of the IPCC's conclusions on climate change

    If your only quibble with this is the use of the word "finding", then I'd suggest your priorities are in the wrong place. I'm sure you'd agree that climate research is important enough that the scientific method used to reach hugely significant conclusions should not be called into question.

  • GMofSomerset GMofSomerset

    1 Mar 2010, 3:45PM

    The Institute of Physics has finally compiled its reaction to the Climategate e-mails which stands independent of the findings of the information commissioner. For those that are interested the full text can be found here:

    Memorandum submitted by the Institute of Physics (CRU 39)

    It seems, quite rightly, that the IOP is worried not just about the damage to Climate Science but to damage caused by these people to the wider public belief in the scientific method.

  • onthefence onthefence

    1 Mar 2010, 3:52PM

    DaveRH: If your only quibble with this is the use of the word "finding",

    The only thing the ICO has released is an email to a reporter.

    I see that Richard Thomas has just refused to comment on the CRU case to the Commons committee, saying it is "sub judice" within the ICO.

    He won't discuss it with a Commons committee, but the Deputy IC was happy to make allegations in an email to a reporter.

    I'll try again: What's misreported in the CRU submission?

    Compare the CRU summary with the ICO letter, and explain what's misreported.
    I notice you haven't done that.

  • DaveRH DaveRH

    1 Mar 2010, 4:08PM

    onthefence

    Compare the CRU summary with the ICO letter, and explain what's misreported. I notice you haven't done that.

    The submission attempts to give the impression that the ICO had effectively cleared them. It's a piece of spin, nothing more.

    Now, this topic got brought up because you said that the letter from the Institute of Physics made a submission based "garbled press reports". In light of the quoted section of the ICO letter, are you still happy with that statement?

  • DaveRH DaveRH

    1 Mar 2010, 4:12PM

    In the TV feed, Thomas won't be drawn on the email to the reporter.
    He's made no attempt to justify it.

    To be fair, you mentioned on Friday a political firestorm which the ICO could be drawn into. I expect he's trying to avoid that.

  • onthefence onthefence

    1 Mar 2010, 4:15PM

    DaveRH: The submission attempts to give the impression that the ICO had effectively cleared them.

    So you can't show what's misreported then?
    If you can't show what's misreported, you're wasting your time claiming it's been misreported, see?

    The UEA summary of the ICO letter is online, the ICO's original letter is online.
    Just show what's misreported.

  • onthefence onthefence

    1 Mar 2010, 4:22PM

    DaveRH: To be fair, you mentioned on Friday a political firestorm which the ICO could be drawn into. I expect he's trying to avoid that.

    Thomas pointedly referred to the case being "sub judice" within ICO, and gave this as his reason for not commenting on the Section 77 claim in the email.

    The Section 77 allegation was made in an email, and the first CRU heard of it was in a newspaper.
    I think the ICO hasn't heard the last of this.
    Thomas wasn't interested in justifying it.

  • DaveRH DaveRH

    1 Mar 2010, 4:25PM

    I think the ICO hasn't heard the last of this.
    Thomas wasn't interested in justifying it.

    From what I've read on the blog - he wasn't interested in saying much of anything. I doubt very much that the UEA will want the ICO to actually investigate them.

  • onthefence onthefence

    1 Mar 2010, 4:57PM

    DaveRH: I've given my answer. Still waiting for yours

    So I take it you can't find the misreported bits.

    The Institute of Physics made a submission based on garbled press reports.
    I've given one example.

  • JOHNPAGESUNMAN JOHNPAGESUNMAN

    1 Mar 2010, 5:11PM

    I have spent a significant proportion of my life working on climate data issues. I have been involved in several major EU funded programmes concerning the mapping of solar resources across Europe. I am now working on the broader framework of solar energy resources across the world with links for example to NASA and also to WMO. Such work involves the handling of extensive climate data sets and implicitly their competent quality control. The work requires both basic scientific knowledge and an eye for identifying potentially misleading data. It requires diligent scientific honesty to do well because data quality control remains a difficult and complex scientific task and so consumes considerable amounts of working time. If you are working on a global data task, you cannot visit all the data measurement points. The outcome then becomes one of trust and careful scientific evaluation of the data received. A daily record of 12 climate variables at one hour intervals assembles into a annual data set of 12* 24* 365 values per year per site. A thirty record of this type for one site will contain 12*24* 265* 30 values. Combine five thousand sites what then? Climate data are not a free good lying on the shelf awaiting a postage stamp. Most National Met Services value their data banks in exactly the same way book authors value their original manuscripts. You expect to pay the author some money for the priviledge of owning a copy. A copy of a letter written by the UK Met Office to one hostile party gaining unauthorised access to the UEA data base appeared in a blog at the COP 15 DK website. Read it and then understand the professional pain implicit in what I believe to be a significant misinterpretation of the Freedom of Data Act. As an international climate data mapper, you depend vitally on the scientific good will of many countries, the majority of which do not have freedom of information acts. So we are now being forced to move from patterns of information exchange based on scientific good will and agreements of scientific honour between parties to a life based on forced intrusions, based not on science but on the concept of the Freedom of Information Law involving a mis-directed justice based a scientically unfriendly concept of the law, The current UK political and journalistic aggression against confidential scientific collaboration will clearly lead on to more and more scientific data being locked inside national cupboards. This cannot be the scientific way forward. These current attitudes are putting too much power in the hands of disclosure journalists with the lawyers of the world no doubt benefitting more than any one else. This new situation too is a wonderful free gift for the deniers, because paying nothing for information, means they can ask an infinite number of time consuming questions at no cost to themselves. The scientific loss is the working time loss available for forward looking research and financial burdens on the research teams who are forced in unending series of actions to supply scientific data without asking the question what is reasonable .Research teams will be forced to achieve less and less positive work each day.

    Professional international climatology is now the main victim of "Climategate" Time to revert to more common sense and move on to real progress.Please bury the rat and move on to real vision of the role of climatology. Could we now have some postive stories of our real achievements

    John Page is Emeritus Professor of Building Science University of Sheffield and has worked on Building Climatology for 60 years

  • roverdc roverdc

    1 Mar 2010, 7:50PM

    JOHNPAGESUNMAN
    1 Mar 2010, 5:11PM

    This new situation too is a wonderful free gift for the deniers, because paying nothing for information, means they can ask an infinite number of time consuming questions at no cost to themselves.

    This is wrong in that as tax payers we have contributed large amounts of money to the AGW cause when we would from choice have given it to any project that would be likely to show it up as the trash we believe it to be. Why should we support a cause we believe to be inept, blinkered and provenly clique ridden to the extent it is failing to examine any climate variables even to 10% of the extent it does for CO2 equivalent gases?

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