Gordon Brown was recorded describing Gillian Duffy (left) as a 'bigoted woman'. Photograph: Lewis Whyld/PA
6.56am: If the Greek debt crisis suddenly gets a lot worse, will that help Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives? It's not a particularly tasteful question. But with the BBC news this morning dominated by talk of a jittery bond market, the euro on the slide and the FTSE on the way down, I'm pretty sure that's what they will be wondering at the campaign meetings this morning.
The papers still seem to be dominated by the Institute for Fiscal Studies reports that were out yesterday. In the Guardian, Patrick Wintour and Larry Elliott report that the IFS has accused "all three main parties ‑ and particularly Labour ‑ for failing to come clean over the scale of tax rises, welfare cuts and spending retrenchment necessary after the election."
In an attack on the "vague" plans sketched out by Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, the Institute for Fiscal Studies also claimed the Tories were planning the sharpest spending cuts since the second world war, while the Labour and Lib Dem spending slowdowns amounted to the biggest retrenchment since the IMF crisis in the mid-1970s.The IFS said that no party had gone "anywhere near identifying" the cuts they will need to meet their various deficit reduction timetables.
The attack leaves all three parties with awkward questions to answer ahead of tomorrow's televised leaders debate, focused on the economy. In a damning assessment the IFS says: "Repairing the public finances will be the defining domestic policy task of the next government. For the voters to be able to make an informed choice in this election, the parties need to explain clearly how they would go about achieving it. Unfortunately they have not. The opposition parties have not set out their fiscal targets clearly, and all three are particularly vague on their plans for public spending. The blame for that lies primarily with government for refusing to hold a spending review before the election."
The Times says:
The next government must raise more in taxes and implement deeper welfare cuts than any of the three main parties admit, according to an influential think-tank.
And the message from the Daily Telegraph is much the same:
The average family already faces tax rises of more than £500 a year in the face of the £1 trillion deficit. But, according to the IFS, Labour will need to increase taxes by another £7 billion a year under its economic plan and the Conservatives will need to raise taxes by about £3 billion.
Today we'll be hearing more on the economy. Alistair Darling, the chancellor, is addressing the subject in a speech in Edinburgh. George Osborne, his Tory opposite number, is launching an initiative on banks. There is no early Lib Dem press conference, but Lord Mandelson, Alan Johnson and John Denham will be holding one at 8.30 to talk about Labour's plans for communities.
I'm heading into Westminster now. I'll post again at some point after 7.30.
7.56am: Here are some of the items on the agenda today.
8.30am: Labour press conference, with Lord Mandelson, Alan Johnson and John Denham
11am: Alistair Darling speech on the economy
1.30pm: Nick Clegg Q&A with students in Edinburgh
2.15pm: Andy Burnham, Andrew Lansley and Norman Lamb in Daily Politics health debate on BBC 2
6pm: Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg address Operation Black Vote rally in London
8.00am: Chris Huhne, the Lib Dem home affairs spokesman, has been on Sky this morning defending Nick Clegg. As the Guardian reports, the Eurosceptic thinktank Open Europe has accused Clegg of hypocrisy because he made a proft from the sale of a Brussels home that he lived in when he was receiving an accommodation allowance from the European parliament. According to PoliticsHome, Huhne said:
When it comes to the European parliament, there is no equivalent to the Westminster second home allowance. I was a member of the European parliament as well, you don't have a taxpayer funded second home, you are able to spend it on a hotel, whatever else .... What Nick has said when it comes to second home allowance here at Westminster, where he does use that to pay for his home in Sheffield, is you pay the taxpayer back any capital gains that arise from that ... I don't think there is a story or any hypocrisy.
8.20am: David Miliband is on the Today programme talking about the Greek debt crisis. He has just accused David Cameron of "economic illiteracy". He said Cameron was wrong to compare the UK to Greece, because debt in Greece is twice as high as in the UK.
8.25am: In his Today interview, David Miliband also dismissed the idea that Nick Clegg could force Labour to replace Gordon Brown as leader in a hung parliament. The Labour party chooses its own leader, he said.
8.35am: I've had a quick look at the papers. Here are five articles I would recommend.
• The Financial Times says the Tories are "exploring the possibility of a deal with unionist politicians in Northern Ireland and Scottish and Welsh nationalist MPs in the event of a hung parliament, in an attempt to avoid giving in to Liberal Democrat demands for electoral reform".
• And the FT says George Osborne "has failed to win over the City's top bankers, with the vast majority of senior financial services executives preferring the incumbent, Alistair Darling," according to a survey of more than two dozen senior bankers. "What that survey revealed was a widespread sense of unease about Mr Osborne's inexperience and what is seen as a tendency to "make up policy on the hoof", in the words of one senior banker."
• John Lloyd in the FT says televised leaders' debates do not help voters make rational choices. "To put politicians before a live audience whose members ask questions is to invite them to flatter – and in the UK leaders' debates we have seen plenty of that."
• Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian says the election represents the best chance of change for a generation. "It is, I know, a paradox that the best chance of realising Lib Dem dreams is for Labour to do well next week. But that is the insane reality of our system. It's back, one last time, to those 1997 tactics."
• Peter Riddell in the Times reports on a poll showing the Tories "within striking distance of being able to form a viable government".
8.46am: The Labour press conferences is starting. Lord Mandelson says the Tories are so out of touch with life in modern Britain that they issued a document recently claiming that 50% of teenagers were getting pregnant in certain areas.
Alan Johnson, the home secretary, says David Cameron renewed his claim yesterday that society is broken. That is not true, Johnson says. The Tories are also claiming that violent crime is going up. But that is also wrong. The murder rate in London is the lowest since people were wearing "flares and tank tops" in 1978.
Johnson accuses the Tories of offering "statistical mendacity and trite homilies".
(Yesterday Left Foot Forward published a blogpost criticising the Tory crime claims in more detail.)
8.53am: At the press conference Alan Johnson attacks the Tories for opposing the extension of CCTV. And he introduces Katie Piper, the victim of an acid attack, to talk about CCTV. Piper delivers a short speech in which she says:
Without CCTV my attackers could well have walked free .. Thanks in part to CCTV I am now able to rebuild my life.
John Denham follows Piper. He says the Lib Dems have opposed government measures to crack down on antisocial behaviour.
9.15am: This press conference is supposed to be about crime and antisocial behaviour, but it quickly turned into a seminar on the economy and the Greek debt crisis. Mandelson faced three hostile questions on this. He had three main points to make.
Mandelson insisted that Britain is not in the same position as Greece. "Greece is not Britain. Britain is not Greece," he said. Mandeslon said that in Britain debt as a proportion of GDP is 54%. In Greece it is between 115% and 120%. The Greek economy is in recession; the British economy is growing. And in Greece around 30% of the economy is a black economy, from which the government gets no tax revenue.
Referring to the claims made by the IFS yesterday, Mandelson insisted that Labour has a detailed plan for growth. Economic growth would contribute to reducing the defict by raising £20bn, he said. The government would raise taxes by £19bn, Mandelson said. And there will be "tough choices" on spending. The financial climate will be "much tighter" than before. Savings worth £38bn will be found, he said.
Mandelson also insisted that the government was right not to hold a spending review this year. (The IFS suggested this was a mistake.) He said:
If we had carried out a comprehensive spending review last year, we would have got our forecast for spending on unemployment benefit wrong by £15bn over the next five years ... That's why the time for the spending review is not now.
And, finally, Mandelson said that the situation in Greece illustrated why the economic recovery was "fragile", and why Britain needed experienced leadership.
9.21am: At the press conference, Mandelson was asked about the prospect of Labour doing a deal with Nick Clegg after the election. Labour politicians have been taking pot shots at Clegg for the last week now, but Mandelson's contribution this morning was about the most withering I've heard.
To be honest, I don't think Nick Clegg knows whether he's coming or going. He says different things day to day. One moment he's talking to the man in the moon and saying he would be happy to go into a coalition with him. The next day he's ruling out other leaders and parties. Frankly, it is arrogant for him to lay down conditions for a post-election before a single vote has been cast.
Incidentally, Mandelson is wrong about not a single vote being cast. Some people have voted by post already.
9.37am: My colleague Haroon Siddique has sent me some more information about Katie Piper, who spoke at the Labour press conference (see 8.53am).
A former model and budding television presenter, Piper was 24 when, in 2008, she had sulphuric acid thrown over her face. The acid destroyed all the skin on Katie's face, neck and hands, and left her blind in one eye.
Her attacker, Stefan Sylvestre, was brought to justice with the help of CCTV footage. Sylvestre was acting on the orders of Danny Lynch who dated Piper after contacting her on Facebook but then became jealous and violent. A few days before the acid attack Lynch had raped her. Piper spent seven weeks in the burns unit at the Chelsea and Westminster Hospital after the acid attack.
She wears a special plastic pressure mask for 23 hours a day, in an effort to flatten her scars and her ability to eat and drink is restricted. She waived her right to anonymity for a Channel 4 documentary, My Beautiful Face, and delivered Channel 4's alternative Christmas message last year. Lynch was given two life sentences, one for rape and one for inciting the acid attack, and was ordered to serve at least sixteen years in jail. Sylvestre received a 12-year sentence, with a minimum of six years behind bars.
9.59am: The Labour press conference is over. Here are the main points.
• Lord Mandelson insisted that what is happening in Greece will not happen in Britain. "To liken Britain to Greece is frankly ridiculous," the business secretary said. He explained at length why, although Britain has a budget deficit that is comparable to Greece's, the two economies are fundamentally different. (See 9.15am). But he accepted that the situation in the eurozone illustrated why the recovery in Britain was fragile. "We are coming out of a financial and economic hurricane, but we are not clear of it yet," he said. Mandelson said this showed why it would be wrong to elect an inexperienced government. (Earlier I suggested that all parties would be thinking about how they could turn the the Greek debt crisis to their advantage. Mandelson has just provided the Labour answer: stress Brown's experience.)
• Mandelson insisted that Labour was the only party with a detailed plan for growth. In a detailed response to the criticisms made by the IFS yesterday, he insisted that Labour did have a plan for dealing with the deficit. (See 9.15am)
• Labour attacked the Conservatives for not supporting CCTV. Katie Piper, an acid attack victim, appeared at the press conference to talk about the value of CCTV in ensuring that her attackers were convicted. Alan Johnson, the home secretary, said the Tories and the Liberal Democrats were opposed to the greater use of CCTV cameras on the basis of it forming part of a "surveillance society". This provoked an angry reaction from the Tories. Fiona Cunningham, a Conservative party press officer, put this out on Twitter.
Johnson said DC recently criticised CCTV in a speech. Where? DC not mentioned CCTV in speech since 10 Jan 08. then it was positive
When challenged about this, Johnson said that Cameron had supported David Davis in his byelection campaign and that Davis had made opposition to CCTV a key part of his platform.
• Mandelson renewed his attack on Nick Clegg. He called him "arrogant" and portrayed him as vain and indecisive. (See 9.21am)
10.11am: On the subject of CCTV, my colleague Alan Travis points out that the latest Home Office evaluation found that CCTV only has a modest impact on crime levels. Here's an extract from the story Alan wrote about this last year.
The review of 44 research studies on CCTV schemes by the Campbell Collaboration found that they do have a modest impact on crime overall but are at their most effective in cutting vehicle crime in car parks, especially when used alongside improved lighting and the introduction of security guards.
The authors, who include Cambridge University criminologist, David Farrington, say while their results lend support for the continued use of CCTV, schemes should be far more narrowly targeted at reducing vehicle crime in car parks.
Results from a 2007 study in Cambridge which looked at the impact of 30 cameras in the city centre showed that they had no effect on crime but led to an increase in the reporting of assault, robbery and other violent crimes to the police.
10.31am: Gordon Brown gave an interview to Radio Scotland this morning. He used it to attack the SNP for wanting to give up Trident.
I would like to see an end to nuclear weapons, I would like to see nuclear weapons cut, but you can't do it by Britain just giving up its nuclear deterrent, giving up Trident. Then you find that Iran has its nuclear weapon and then you find that North Korea has its nuclear weapon and then you find that other countries in the Arab world start to say that they must have their nuclear weapon as well. What sense does it make for Britain to give up its nuclear deterrent, which is the policy of some parties, while at the same time Iran and North Korea are gaining theirs? I think people would think it was ludicrous.
10.32am: Vincent Cable is speaking at an Institute of Directors conference in London. The Lib Dems are excited about the prospect of a hung parliament. But the IoD isn't. Its director general, Miles Templeman, told the conference earlier:
While political parties agree that the deficit is a problem, there is little agreement on how it should be tackled. So it doesn't surprise me that so many business leaders are worried about a hung parliament.
According to the IoD, 70% of its members are very concerned about the prospects of a hung parliament.
10.39am: David Cameron is in Ed Balls' consituency (Morley and Outwood), doing a Q&A with workers at the Wakefield Coca-Cola plant. He has just made his own assessment of the Greek debt crisis. He said that if he had not been for the Tories opposing entry into the euro, British taxpayers would now be spending money bailing out Greece. A journalist asked if he was looking forward to a "Portillo moment" on election night (ie, a future party leader, Ed Balls, losing his seat, like Michael Portillo in 1997). Cameron said it was up to the voters. That seems a wise answer. Morley and Outwood is 197th on the Tory target list. The Conservatives would need a 10.47% swing to win here. As Oliver Burkeman writes in the Guardian today, the bookies expect Balls to win.
10.50am: At the Wakefield event Cameron was asked about the report in the Financial Times saying that he was exploring the possibility of doing a deal with the Scottish and Welsh nationalists. Cameron did not reply to the question directly, but he insisted that he would not do anything to break up the UK.
Be clear. If you cut me in half, I am a believer in the United Kingdom. It's tatooed on me like a stick of rock. I would never do anything to endanger the family that is the United Kingdom.
Last night Alex Salmond, Scotland's first minster, addressed this issue on Newsnight. As my colleague Paul Owen wrote on this blog last night, Salmond said the the SNP and Plaid Cymru – who have banded together somewhat at this election – would not go into coalition with Labour or the Conservatives in the event of a hung parliament at Westminster. But he stood up for coalition government – he runs a minority administration in Edinburgh – calling it "a very cooperative process" and mentioning policies he has got through the Holyrood parliament by working with Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems on different occasions.
10.54am: Bob Crow, the leader of the Rail Maritime and Transport union, has been reading the IFS reports too. He is predicting widespread strikes after the election.
At last the truth is out and the election has shifted to the £50bn cuts legacy from the bankers' bailout which the politicians are lining up in secret for the UK's public services. There is no question that there will be widespread strike action as workers in health, education, transport, the fire service and across the whole spectrum of public services fight back against the full force of the attacks which will be unleashed after polling day. If you want a snapshot of what we are facing take a look at what's happening in Athens today. Junk status, key services ripped to shreds and workers on the streets. Greece today - UK after 6 May.
11.00am: There's a pattern to the Labour campaign. Lord Mandelson and assorted ministers deliver a message at a London press conference. And then a few hours later Gordon Brown says much the same thing at a campaign event in a key seat, like an emissary from London. Yesterday he was in Scotland warning about the Tory threat to families. And this morning he's been in Oldham, talking about CCTV.
Where CCTV is in your area we can detect crime. But be in no doubt that the Conservative and Liberal parties are against the extension of CCTV that we have delivered in this country. The Conservatives and Liberals are against the extension of CCTV and even some of the CCTV we already have in this country.
11.03am: On the subject of CCTV, I missed a wonderful quote that Alan Johnson came out with at the Labour press conference. Thanks to PoliticsHome, here it is.
There's a real sense with the Conservatives that in this 'big society' we just all walk around holding hands and walk into the sea singing Hare Krishna, and that's the way to tackle these problems, versus what the police want.
11.24am:Here's a mid-morning summary.
• Labour and the Tories have clashed in their response to the Greek debt crisis. Labour have rejected suggestions that Britain is in the same position as Greece. David Miliband said it was "economic illiteracy" to compare Britain and Greece. Lord Mandelson said much the same. But David Cameron said that the other two parties were in favour of Britain joining the euro and that that if Britain was in the euro British taxpayers would be bailing out the Greeks. "If we were in the euro right now, all of your taxes, all of your national insurance, some of that would be being taken to bail out Greece," Cameron said. "I'm the one in this election with a very clear policy on this. As long as I'm the prime minister, I will not join the euro." (See 8.20am and 9.59am)
• Gordon Brown has accused the Tories of not supporting the extension of CCTV. The prime minister made his comments after Labour fielded Katie Piper, the victim of an acid attack, to talk about the importance of CCTV at a Labour press conference. The Tories claimed the criticisms were unfair. (See 9.59am and 11am)
• A union leader has predicted widespread strike action after the election. "Junk status, key services ripped to shreds and workers on the streets. Greece today - UK after 6 May," said Bob Crow. (See 10.54am)
• Three overnight polls continue to show the Tories in the lead. All three show the Lib Dem share of the vote falling. There are more details at UK Polling Report, but I'll post the full figures myself soon.
• Lord Mandelson has insisted that Labour does have a detailed plan for growth. He was responding to criticisms levelled by the Institute for Fiscal Studies yesterday. (See 9.15am)
• Chris Huhne has said there was nothing hypocritical about Nick Clegg making a profit from the sale of a Brussels home he lived in when he was receiving an EU accommodation allowance. (See 8am)
11.42am: My colleague Polly Curtis has been with Gordon Brown in Oldham this morning. She's sent me this.
Sparky exchanges at the Honeywell community centre in Oldham. Sabrina Brennan, 19 and a mill worker from Oldham, live on TV, asked Brown: "You mentioned before about we should take control back on crime and crooks. But it's come to my attention there are a lot of criminals and crooks in parliament lately. Are you going to put them on the DNA register?"
Brown said: "Not one of them should stand at this election and not one of them should be elected."
Brennan wasn't letting it go. "Are you going to make sure of that?" she pushed him. He confirmed he would - and that he was angered by MPs' expenses. He is now making an unscheduled stop after being collared by a hairdresser and asked to visit her salon. There are 100 people standing outside a hairdressers on Ashton Road, Oldham, waiting to see whether she fulfills her promise to give him a trim.
11.44am: Brown is going to be on Radio 2's Jeremy Vine show at 12pm, I've just been told.
11.46am: For reference, here are the figures from the three overnight polls.
Conservatives: 33% (no change from YouGov 24 hours earlier)
Labour: 29% (up 1)
Lib Dems: 28% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 4 points (no exchange)
Lab to Con swing: 3.5% (compared to 2005 general election result)
ComRes for ITV and the Independent
Conservatives: 33% (up 1 compared to ComRes 24 hours earlier)
Labour: 29% (up 1)
Lib Dems: 29% (down 2)
Conservative lead: 4 points (up 3)
Lab to Con swing: 3.5% (compared to 2005 general election result)
Conservatives: 36% (up 4, compared to Populus last week)
Lib Dems: 28% (down 3)
Labour: 27% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 8 points (up 7)
Lab to Con swing: 5.5% (compard to 2005 general election result)
11.49am: Alistair Darling is delivering his economy speech now. It's not on the Labour website yet, but I've just received a copy of the text and I'm about to look at it properly. It does contain a very a laboured joke.
And before he recanted, Vince Cable also claimed that using the Bank of England to support our economy belonged to the "Robert Mugabe school of economics". We know he's a nifty mover. But facing both ways at once is hard for even the best dancer. I was already facing Boy George. I now had to contend with Karma Chameleon as well.
I hope the rest of it gets better. I'm about to find out.
12.18pm: Big story – Gordon Brown has been caught on a microphone describing someone he met on the campaign trail as a "bigoted woman". So the meeting real people strategy has not been a success ...
I'll file more on this in a moment.
12.28pm: Here's what happened. Brown was in Rochdale doing a television interview about the deficit. As he was speaking, a woman called Gillian Duffy, a 65-year-old Labour voter, heckled him about the subject.
He engaged her in conversation and they had a rather awkward chat that was filmed live on TV. It was a bit excruciating – mainly because she seemed to be criticising him for everything – but eventually she said local schools were getting better.
Brown tried to joke about her wearing the right colour, red, but that did not seem to go down well. He was still trying to speak to her as she was walking away. That was all I saw. It struck me as a fairly typical "politician meets grumpy voters" moment.
But Brown then got into his car, still wearing the television microphone. Apparently, he was recorded saying that the encounter had been a disaster and that she was a "bigoted woman". Short of doing a Prescott and punching someone, that's about as bad as it gets.
Brown is on Radio 2 now. The "bigoted woman" remark has not been mentioned yet. But he sounds extraordinarily tetchy.
12.32pm: Here's what they are saying about the encounter on Twitter:
From my colleague Polly Curtis: Brown's "bigoted" woman is a Labour supporter who said he seemed like a "very nice man".
From Krishnan Guru-Murthy: Bizarre thing is that he handles the encounter rather well ... it wouldn't have been a story – until he got in the car and slagged her off.
From ITV's Lucy Manning: Full brown quote in car 'that was a disaster. Should never have put me with that woman .. . Whose idea was that'
12.34pm: Gillian Duffy, the woman who spoke to Brown, is on BBC News now.
She says she is "very upset" about his remark. She says that he is an educated man and that he wants to lead the country.
12.37pm: Duffy says she thought Brown was "understanding" when she met him. But having heard what she said about her afterwards, she thinks she was wrong.
She liked Tony Blair, she says. Before today, she thought Brown did "very good things for the country" when he was chancellor. But now things are "going to pot".
12.39pm: BBC News has just played the clip of Brown's remarks. He said:
That was a disaster – they should never have put me with that woman. Whose idea was that? It's just ridiculous ...
Someone on the tape – it's not clear who – says "Sue" was to blame. Brown is then asked what was wrong. He replies:
Everything, she was just a sort of bigoted woman.
12.41pm: Duffy told reporters Brown should apologise. But she said she did not want an apology in person, suggesting she had had enough of Brown for one day.
12.44pm:
12.48pm: Jeremy Vine has just asked about the remark. Brown says:
I apologise if I've said anything like that.
Vine then plays the tape, which shows he did say that. Brown says:
Of course I apologise if I said anything offensive ... I blame myself for what has been done ... You've got to remember this is me being helpful to the broadcasters ... I apologise profusely to the lady concerned ...
He says he was referring to her remarks about immigration.
Vine moves on to another question. But BBC News are now showing footage of Brown in the Radio 2 studio. He looks utterly wretched.
12.56pm: Channel 4 news have footage of the incident:
12.59pm: Here are the full quotes from the Radio 2 inteview. Vine asked Brown if it was true that he had described someone as a "bigoted woman".
Brown: I apologise if I have said anything like that. What I think she was raising with me was an issue of immigration and saying that there were too many people from eastern Europe in the country. I do apologise if I have said anything that has been hurtful, and I will apologise to her personally.
Vine then played the tape.
Vine: That is what she said. Is she not allowed to express her views?
Brown: Of course she's allowed to express a view, and I was saying that. The problem was that I was dealing with a question that she raised about immigration and I was not given a chance to answer it because we had a whole milieu of press around.
Of course I apologise if I have said anything that has been offensive, and I would never put myself in a position where I would want to say anything like that about a woman I met. It was a question about immigration that really I think was annoying.
Vine: You're blaming a member of staff there.
Brown: I'm blaming myself. I blame myself for what is done. You've got to remember that this was me being helpful to the broadcasters with my microphone on, rushing into the car because I had to get to another appointment.
They have chosen to play my private conversation with the person who was in the car with me. I know these things can happen. I apologise profusely to the woman concerned. I think it was just the view that she expressed that I was worried about that I could not respond to.
1.02pm: Here, from the Press Association, is some more reaction from Gillian Duffy.
Duffy said she was "very disappointed" with Mr Brown's remarks.
After hearing what the prime minister had said about her, she said it was "very upsetting".
"He's an educated person, why has he come out with words like that?" she said.
"He's supposed to lead this country and he's calling an ordinary woman who's just come up and asked questions what most people would ask him – he's not doing anything about the national debt and it's going to be tax, tax, tax for another 20 years to get out of this mess – and he's calling me a bigot."
She said she would not now be voting in the general election.
Pressed on whether she still wanted Mr Brown in No 10, she said: "I'm not bothered whether he does or not now. I don't think he will."
She urged the PM to go out among the public and "find out what's going on in our lives".
She said she had not planned to speak to Mr Brown, but saw him "walking up the street" and thought she would ask him what he would do about the national debt."I thought he was understanding – but he wasn't, was he, the way he's come out with the comments ..."
Duffy, who has a daughter and two grandchildren, told reporters she used to work with handicapped children for Rochdale council before she retired.
Her husband, who was a painter and decorator, died of cancer four years ago.
1.10pm: Stewart Wood has been in touch to say he was not the Labour aide in the car with Brown, as the BBC suggested earlier.
1.10pm: The BBC is reporting that Brown has phoned Gillian Duffy to apologise.
1.11pm: Meanwhile, in the rest of the world, the SNP has lost its legal action at the court of session in Edinburgh today over its exclusion from the final prime ministerial debate on the BBC.
Back to bigot-gate in a moment ...
1.16pm: This is what Gillian Duffy said to Brown about immigration in their encounter on the streets:
You can't say anything about immigrants ... All these eastern Europeans – where are they coming from?
Brown said one million people had come from Europe but another million Britons had moved the other way.
It seems Brown was quite frustrated by the encounter.
1.24pm: Here's a recording of Gordon Brown's comments about Gillian Duffy:
1.32pm: Here's a recording of Brown being confronted about the incident on the Jeremy Vine show.
1.35pm: To ask the question they love posing on the BBC and Sky, "how damaging" is this to Brown and Labour?
It's too early to know, but here are some initial thoughts.
1) These incidents are often not as damaging as they look. John Prescott was worried that his career was over after he punched a voter in 2001. But now he seems to regard that as something to be proud of. He referred to it in the title of his autobiography, and jokes about it frequently.
2) No one was ever likely to vote for Gordon Brown because they thought he was a ray of sunshine. But ...
3) There are probably millions of women like Gillian Duffy who vote Labour, worry about immigration and don't want to hear themselves described as "bigoted".
4) Honesty is an issue in this election, and we've just seen Brown say something about a woman in private that he was not willing to say to her in public. Personally, I think that's understandable – we've all been polite to people we do not particularly like.
But when Brown was first confronted about what he had said, his first instinct was to suggest that he had not actually made the remark (see 12.48pm and 12.59pm).
Brown's opponents are telling voters that the PM, and Labour, are not telling the public the truth about the economy. This exchange may make it easier for some people to believe that.
5) Labour has a problem with immigration. As polls like this one show, the Tories are way ahead on the issue. Until now, it has not been an issue in the campaign at a national level – but it could become one. Duffy asked Brown about eastern Europeans, but in private he suggested she was being racist.
6) Until Brown got into his car with the microphone on, the economy – potentially a good issue for Labour – was the key issue of the day. Now it has been knocked off the top of the news agenda. At the very least, Labour has lost a day.
1.42pm: This is what Brown's spokesman has been saying about the incident:
Gordon has apologised to Mrs Duffy personally by phone. He does not think that she is bigoted. He was letting off steam in the car after a difficult conversation.
But this is exactly the sort of conversation that is important in an election campaign and which he will continue to have with voters.
1.45pm: This is what Nick Clegg has said about bigot-gate.
You should always try to answer the questions as best you can ... [Brown] has been recorded saying what he has said and will have to answer for that.
And this is what Alistair Darling said about the incident on the World at One.
He has apologised, that apology is profuse and I think he is well aware of the fact that he shouldn't have said this. I know the lady concerned is upset for understandable reasons, but the prime minister has apologised ... Gordon is a man of considerable strengths and considerable resilience and of considerable substance ... He has apologised for it but I think and I hope people will judge him in the round ... We need to move on because there are other big, big issues that need to be discussed and I just hope the lady concerned will accept Gordon's apology.
2.06pm: Here is some reaction to bigot-gate from the web and Twitter.
Benedict Brogan, on his Telegraph blog, says it could kill off Gordon Brown.
In minutes, this has turned into the most damaging off-mike remark in modern politics. It might finish off Mr Brown altogether. He's just insulted a 66-year-old widow without cause. And she's a Labour supporter.
The contrast between him patting her on her back and praising her for being from a 'good family' and trashing her in the privacy of his Jaguar will horrify the Labour party, never mind the electorate.
To judge by the foaming frenzy of the TV networks, this will help to depress the Labour vote even further.
Nick Robinson, on BBC News:
For those of us that have known Gordon Brown for many years, what we have just seen is no huge surprise, I have to say.
Tim Montgomerie, the editor of ConservativeHome, on Twitter:
This is devastating for Brown. Tory politicians mustn't say too much about #BigotGate. Let press/bloggers bury Brown's electoral chances.
James Forsyth, at Coffee House, says the Lib Dems could be damaged by this too.
I suspect Nick Clegg will also suffer some collateral damage as it will push immigration to the top of the political agenda – an area where the Lib Dems, with their plan for an amnesty for illegal immigrants, are on the wrong side of public opinion.
Tory Rascal has already turned it into a poster on the Tory Rascal blog:
It's difficult to predict how this will play out, but I think it could well be the moment that turns floating voters off Labour completely.
Lance Price, at Cif at the polls, says the episode is a disaster for Brown.
Brown looked devastated by what had happened, as well he might, but he seemed to want to blame the broadcasters for airing his words and said he was sorry "if I've said anything like that".
There's no "if" about it. The full-blown TV apology when it comes, as it must, will have to be personal, direct and unambiguous.
Hopi Sen, on his blog, says there is something positive about hearing what politicians really think.
The truth is, we know politicians must sometimes hate the more vociferous members of the public they meet. We know that election campaigns are chaotic, mistake-ridden, fly by the seat of your pants operations. So maybe we should be pleased when the masks slip a little bit.
2.16pm: Gillian Duffy used to be a Labour voter. She has a postal vote in her house, but told reporters after the "bigot" incident that she would not be voting Labour in this election.
Now Nigel Farage is suggesting she should vote Ukip. Farage has issued this statement:
All the old parties feel the same way about Mrs Duffy's concerns over eastern European migration to the UK. Maybe only Brown is so unpleasant in making his point clear. They all hold us in contempt.
Only Ukip is attempting to address the issue of immigration from eastern Europe, while the others cannot as they are all wedded to the EU controlling our borders, thus leaving the UK powerless to deal with the problem.
2.44pm: If anyone can "spin" Gordon Brown out of this one, it will be Lord Mandelson. In an interview on BBC News, he's just had a go.
Mandelson's explanation was that Brown said something he did not believe in the heat of the moment and is now "mortified" by the offence he caused. Here are the key extracts.
I know, having spoken to him, that [Brown] feels mortified by the hurt caused to [Duffy] and that's why he telephoned her straight away and gave his personal apology to her ...
When you are on the campaign trail in this way, you have encounters of this kind. You sometimes have difficult conversations. Individuals quite rightly express their point of view very strongly when they meet somebody coming from any of the parties.
And afterwards, you leave the conversation and you may say something in the heat of the moment that you should not do but, more importantly, that you don't believe.
Gordon Brown does not believe what he said about her. But he said it because people do sometimes say things on the rebound from a conversation like that. That's what makes him a human being, as well as a politician.
Mandelson was asked if Brown understood the impact the story might have. He replied:
What concerns him chiefly is what Mrs Duffy feels. That's why he's spoken to her and that's why he's apologised to her.
Mandelson also claimed that Brown felt "frustrated" because people did not fully understand the way the government's immigration policy was working.
At the end of the interview Mandelson repeated the point about Brown not believing what he said. "It is not something be believes. He does not believe it publicly or privately."
This prompted the interviewer to ask if Brown often said things he did not believe. At that point Mandelson turned distinctly frosty and said he had already addressed the point.
As spin goes, it was a brave effort. But I'm not sure it will do the trick.
2.50pm: Hello, it's Hélène Mulholland here. Policy appears to have swerved off the news agenda since Brown made the unfortunate error of having a private word on a very public piece of technology.
Sky is reporting that Brown is on his way to see Duffy in person to apologise.
2.53pm: Nick Clegg was being quizzed earlier about Brown's gaffe. The Lib Dem leader said it wasn't "right" to have said what he did, and that it's important to treat people's questions with the respect they deserve.
Of course it is – but as Mandelson pointed out, we are all human. It's now up to Clegg to make sure no similar mishap befalls him as tiredness sets in during the remaining days of the election campaign.
3.04pm: Poor Duffy. She has quite a few journalists, aides and security staff hanging about outside her Rochdale home. Brown has gone indoors to have another chat with her.
3.12pm:
Just found out: in 1997 Blair only used microphones from the Labour party to avoid a Major-style "bastards" moment.
This tweet, from Fraser Nelson, is obviously of limited use to Brown now – he's learned the lesson the hard way.
3.21pm: Alex Smith, on Labourlist, is trying to move forward.
For activists who are fighting hard in this campaign, we cannot allow this to demotivate us: in a Channel 4 poll just taken, 70% of respondents said such a comment will not make them less likely to vote Labour.
And where I'm fighting, in Islington – and all around the country – there are bigger things at stake than worrying too much about one personality or a comment Brown should never have made. Those are the issues - housing, the economy, jobs - that this election was always going to be about.
3.27pm: Duffy is a Sky News fan, according to journalist Niall Patterson. That'ss just as well, as the broadcaster has been filming the outside of her home for some time now.
Men in suits are hanging around outside like expectant fathers. It's either going really well in Duffy's front room, or really badly. I bet it's the former. An apology goes a long way to mending hurt feelings.
3.39pm: The Financial Times's Jim Pickard recalls a private conversation which went very public when Nick Clegg was discussing party matters on a flight with his chief of staff Danny Alexander.
My colleague Haroon Siddique recalls some of the other senior political figures who forgot they were still on microphone.
3.42pm: Everyone: the door has opened. This is live blogging at its best. More follows.
3.45pm: A smiling Brown came out sans Duffy. He said he had misunderstood what she told him earlier today and was "mortified" at what he had said.
3.54pm: Here's Brown's full statement:
I've just been talking to Gillian. I'm mortified by what's happened. I've given her my sincere apologies. I misunderstood what she said, and she has accepted there was a misunderstanding and has accepted my apology.
If you like, I'm a penitent sinner. Sometimes you say things you don't mean to say, sometimes you say things by mistake and sometimes you say things you want to correct very quickly.
So I wanted to come here and say that I made a mistake but to also to say I understood the concerns she was bringing to me and I simply misunderstood some of the words she used. I made my apology.
I've come here – it's been a chance to talk to Gillian about her family, her relatives and her own history and what she has done, but most of all it's been a chance to apologise and say sorry, and to say sometimes you do make mistakes and you use the wrong words and once you've used the wrong word and made a mistake you should withdraw it and say profound apologies and that's what I've done.
Will this draw a line under the affair?
4.12pm: A colleague on the foreign desk wonders whether Duffy will get picked up by the Tories in same way Joe the Plumber was by the McCain camp in the US. Remember? Will there be a Duffy tour, he adds?
4.14pm: Lance Price isn't seeing the funny side, and fears Labour will not be able to move on from a gaffe he describes as a "disaster".
The political disaster is, if anything, more serious. To sustain its share of the vote and maximize the number of MPs it returns, Labour needs the votes of millions of traditional supporters like Duffy.
The party has lost not just hers, but potentially thousands of others who will listen to what she said and find that they agree. Does Brown think they are all bigots too?
4.37pm: Hi. It's Andrew Sparrow, taking over again, back from a late lunch and sorry that I missed Gordon Brown's "penitent sinner" moment.
I've just heard my colleague Jackie Ashley, on the BBC, suggest this would never have happened if Sarah Brown had been with her husband. And what does Sarah think of it all? Heaven knows. She has just posted on Twitter. But all she said was this:
Has been campaigning in Edinburgh and Fife last night and today - good to see so many friends
4.46pm: I've just been speaking to my colleague Martin Wainwright, who is with the press pack outside Gillian Duffy's house. He has just told me this:
I'm in a cul-de-sac of 1950s terraced houses. It's jammed with media from all over the country. Duffy is not expected to come out, but all her neighbours have been talking. I spoke to one, a disc jockey, and various others.
They were all shocked by Brown's double standards, but they all appreciated the fact that he has apologised. So what he has done has had an effect.
Interestingly, Helen Clifton, a freelance journalist, has told me how Duffy found out about Brown's comment.
Sean Hansford, a photographer on the Rochdale Observer, went straight to her house after her first encounter with Brown. Hansford said afterwards: "She did not know what a bigot was when I spoke to her. She turned the TV on, she was on Sky News and she was gobsmacked." He added: "She's a lovely lady.
"
4.52pm: A reader has been in contact to point out that Brown did not say: "She was just a bigoted woman."
As the full transcript of his remarks shows, he actually said: "She was just a sort of bigoted woman." That "sort of" does make a bit of difference.
5.00pm: I'm as fascinated by bigot-gate as anyone – but there's a real world out there too, and it's quite interesting. On the wires, I see Spain's credit rating has been downgraded.
For more on this, read my colleague Graeme Wearden's live blog of the Greek debt crisis.
5.05pm: Sky News has issued this statement, which helps to explain how the Brown incident happened.
Today, at a walkabout in Rochdale, Sky News gave Gordon Brown a radio microphone at the request of Labour party officials.
Immediately after his exchange with Gillian Duffy, Mr Brown left in his car before the Sky News microphone could be removed and switched off.
Audio from the microphone was widely available as part of the pool arrangements between broadcasters covering the election campaign.
5.21pm: I've already done one round-up of what they're saying about bigot-gate on the blogs and on Twitter (see 2.06pm). Two hours on, here's another.
• John Harris, at Cif at the polls, says this incident is "beyond grim" for Labour.
The incident perfectly captures a plotline that I've observed time and again, not least as we've been travelling around the country during the campaign: millions of people who are confused, unsettled, and often ragingly angry, faced with a political class that affects to feel their pain, but too often holds them in borderline contempt.
What with the rise in support for the BNP – and that great chasm that divides too much of the country from richer corners of the capital – the metropolitan media is part of the same problem. It tends to portray them as latter-day Alf Garnetts, nostalgic for a world long gone, and fired up by the kind of prejudices that have no place in London W1 or W11.
• Alastair Campbell, who has been with Brown this afternoon, says on his blog that he has never seen the prime minister so angry with himself.
• Michael White, at the Guardian, says "Brown with his head in his hands is likely to be the defining image of the 2010 campaign".
• Michael Crick, on the Newsnight blog, says Brown's comments are "dreadful" on several levels.
They show that Labour's claims since the weekend that Mr Brown was now meeting 'real people' are pretty bogus. It's clear from his comments, and criticism of his long-standing aide Sue Nye, that Mr Brown still expected to be presented on the campaign only with loyal Labour voters.
• Nicholas Watt, at the Guardian, says the episode is "a car crash for Gordon Brown that has the potential to inflict immense damage on both him and the Labour campaign".
• Janet Daley, at the Telegraph, cannot understand how Brown "misunderstood" Duffy.
• Channel 4 News, on Twitter: C4 POLL RESULTS: Did Brown's apology to Gillian Duffy do enough to make amends? Yes 58%, No 38%, Maybe 2%
(If you only have time to read one of these pieces, read Harris's. It's excellent.)
5.40pm: There has been some other election news today. I've already mentioned the Greek debt crisis, which seems to have sent the eurozone economy spinning precariously around the rim of the toilet seat (see 5pm), but my collegue Hélène Mulholland has been rounding up some election stories we have overlooked. Here they are.
• George Osborne used a speech to the Institute of Directors in London to say Brown had created a "political climate" where any sensible discussion about the measures needed was met with false claims that they would lead to deep cuts in vital services.
Osborne insisted the Tories had gone further than any other opposition in history on cuts but said his task had been made as difficult as possible by Brown.
"There is no government spending review we can work off – this government cancelled that. There is no accurate set of national accounts – this government made sure of that," he said.
"He [Brown] has created a fiscal climate where nobody except the Treasury has the information required to set out the full extent of the spending choices ahead. He has created a political climate where anyone talking honestly and sensibly about what needs to be done is falsely accused of making deep cuts to vital services."
• Alistair Darling delivered a speech this morning in Edinburgh, in which he said no spending review was carried out in the past year because areas like unemployment and debt interest were expected to be higher than they have turned out to be.
"That means the pool we allocate for public spending has changed since even last year," he said.
"There can't be that many chancellors who have gone into an election saying that the spending conditions are such that we'll have one of the toughest settlements in many, many years.
"I've been very clear that we need to halve our deficit over a four-year period starting next year. That will set an envelope beyond which spending cannot go. I've also said that we want to protect areas like the NHS, spending on schools, police numbers. The rest of spending will face a much tougher regime."
• Vince Cable used his address to IoD to attack "billionaire tax-dodgers" who try to dictate the country's tax policies.
Cable told business leaders he had "no quarrel" with business leaders who lobby for tax cuts for industry. But he said politicians needed to be strong enough to stand up to them and say: "No, sorry, we simply can't afford what you ask."
He said that, while he is a friend of business, he has no intention of "pulling my punches" when they are needed.
"I have no time for billionaire tax-dodgers who step off the plane from their tax havens into the country where they make their money and have the effrontery to tell us how to vote and how to run our tax policies," he said.
"If some of them came onshore and paid their taxes it would make a useful dent in the budget deficit."
• The Scottish National party has failed in its bid to block the live TV debate due to be broadcast on the BBC this Thursday.
The Scottish nationalists mounted a last-ditch legal challenge to the debate at the court of session in Edinburgh, arguing that it should not be screened in Scotland if the party was not included.
Judge Lady Smith dismissed the call, saying: "I am not satisfied that it is appropriate to grant the order sought."
Ken MacQuarrie, the director of BBC Scotland, welcomed the ruling and said: "We are pleased to be able to bring the prime ministerial debate to the people of Scotland."
5.47pm: My colleague Martin Wainwright has sent me some more information about what's been going on outside Gillian Duffy's home in Rochdale.
Photographer Sean Hansford, of the Rochdale Observer, walked into Duffy's house just before Sky News ran their first bulletin in the drama. The two of them watched, Duff in growing astonishment as her part in the lead story unfolded.
Hansford said: "She didn't know what a bigot was. She turned the TV on and she was there on Sky News. 'Oh my God!,' she said. She was gobsmacked. She's a lovely lady. It was an amazing moment, but she was annoyed and angry. She's got her postal vote there ready to go. I don't know if she'll change it now."
Gordon Brown arrived in a covoy of three black cars, shepherded by two police patrol cars with flashing lights, and seven police motorcyclists. He got out of his black Jaguar and walked straight over Duffy's patio to her porch, smiling gamely at the massed ranks of journalists.
He ignored questions about whether he was sorry and ashamed. The meeting with Duffy, hidden from view by drawn curtains, lasted almost 40 minutes.
Neighbours in the cul-de-sac joined the media scrum, including bevies of children just let out of Falinge Park high school. They included a small girl who shinned up a tree next to Duffy's home to try and peek in.
"It's not done him any good at all, specially round here," said neighbour Jamie Buckley, a 32-year-old disc jockey. "There's lots of people agree with the things she told him, and they won't take kindly to him saying one thing and then another. He ought to take everyone's views into account.
"I wasn't going to vote all, but I might go for David Cameron this time. I don't know. At least he's apologised, though. And he'll make sure he turns off the microphone next time."
Laura Evans, a hairdessing student, said: "I think someone so high up in the spotlight should be more careful what they're saying. Fair enough, he apologised – but he still should be more careful. It was definitely two-faced as well."
"He's embarrassed himself, but he's done good by coming back here and apologising," said Chantelle Griffiths, 17. "He's done it publicly, too, so that everyone knows."
5.53pm: Cleggmania has gone international. My colleague Simon Hoggart was travelling with the Lib Dem leader today.
He tells me he found himself explaining the phenomenon to fellow journalists representing German TV, French TV, US TV and Japanese radio.
5.57pm: Brown has been doing an impromptu walkabout in Manchester.
The Press Association reports: "Aides said he wanted to demonstrate he was not being thrown off course as he sought to engage with voters ahead of polling day."
6.40pm: "It's like a public colonoscopy. It's more rigorous, more in-depth than I ever imagined." That's how Barack Obama described the experience of being a leader under permanent scrutiny in an election campaign (according to Richard Wolffe, in his book Renegade). Today, Gordon Brown discovered exactly what that meant.
This has been the most dramatic day of the election campaign. It won't overshadow everything else – by Friday morning, we'll all be writing about the third leaders' debate – but it is bound to resonate and make a difference. The problem is, no one knows how much.
Brown seemed relieved when he came out of Gillian Duffy's house this afternoon to deliver his "penitent sinner" comment (see 3.54pm).
He said Duffy had accepted his apology – but she has not said that herself. Newspapers have been bidding for her story – I saw a claim (unverified) on Twitter that £50,000 was on the table – and we may not find out what she thinks until we read about it in the Sun or the Mail. Brown will be waiting anxiously for the first editions.
But even if Duffy comes out of her house and announces that Brown is the greatest prime minister Britain has ever seen, some damage will still have be done.
Brown knows this. He has just sent a grovelling apology for his remarks by email to all Labour party members. The problem is that he has been caught on tape contemptuously dismissing the concerns of the white working class – many of whom are abandoning Labour.
Alastair Campbell is fond of saying that the only thing that matters in politics today is authenticity. By now, you must have heard Brown's remark in the car, and his apology, for yourself. Which struck you as more authentic?
This is bad for Labour. But it is also probably bad for the political class in general. Brown has reinforced the impression that, come election time, politicians swan around the country sucking up to voters in public and then trashing their views in private.
The challenge for David Cameron and Nick Clegg – and Brown himself – is to try to prove that this isn't true.
I'm heading home now. My colleague Paul Owen will be at the controls for the rest of the evening.
6.49pm: Hi, Paul Owen here. Andy mentioned Operation Black Vote's rally in London, which started at 6pm. Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg are all due to speak (it's going on till nine), and we're running a live audio stream of it here.
7.03pm: Just caught a bit of Ukip's party election broadcast. If I were them I would have scrapped the whole thing and just reported live from Greece.
As it was they rolled out boxing promoter turned candidate Frank Maloney, leader Lord Pearson (billed as "Malcolm Pearson") and ex-leader Nigel Farage to talk about leaving the EU, attack immigration and inheritance tax and back selective education.
Ukip's arguments about the EU could potentially fall on receptive ears following the financial crisis and the current alarming goings-on in the eurozone, but I think "Cleggmania" has probably crowded out much of the space for the small parties this year.
7.04pm: Back to "bigotgate". On Comment is free (and his own blog), John Prescott has recast the whole affair as part of the Murdoch media's "get Gordon" campaign.
News International's Sky News broadcast a private conversation between Gordon and his staff. The very same News International that hacked hundreds of phones and saw one of their reporters jailed after listening and publishing conversations involving the royal family ... What Murdoch's Sky News did today was just as bad as his paper's phone-hacking. It was a breach of privacy. It was underhand. And it was done in the pursuit of ratings and political influence.
The former deputy prime minister then attempts to make support for Brown and against Rupert Murdoch an issue of patriotism.
So let's show them that Britain is not for sale. That an Australian with an American passport cannot buy our general election.
7.11pm: Andy Burnham, the health secretary, is talking about the same issue on Channel 4 News. He has said numerous times "we're all human", and said that Brown shouldn't have used the word "bigot".
He says the cabinet has discussed immigration "on many occasions", and talks about the points-based system Labour has introduced.
He says the issue has had one good effect: it has put immigration on the campaign agenda.
Yes it's right to debate immigration. It is important to openly put concerns on the table.
7.13pm: Here are a few interesting pieces we've just put up:
• Lord Bragg has launched an attack on television coverage of politics, singling out Question Time.
• Photographer Dan Chung has been on the road with Nick Clegg. My colleague Allegra Stratton makes a guest appearance in picture 17.
• Julia Finch lists the key questions the three leaders should be asked during tomorrow's debate on the economy.
• Playwright David Hare, who has written some of the most thoughtful and unusual pieces of the election so far, meets Labour MP Gisela Stuart and discusses the lot of female politicians.
7.26pm: A correction comes via my colleague Paul Lewis. Brown, Cameron and Clegg have all pulled out of the Operation Black Vote event. Paul is there and sends this report:
It is a shame, because more than 2,000 black and ethnic minority voters have turned up for what would surely be the largest rally of the campaign so far. The leaders are giving messages via video link. They may well be glad that they missed it. Those deputising for them – Harriet Harman, George Osborne and Vince Cable – are being taken to pieces. Harman opened her speech with "Good evening brothers and sisters," and was furiously heckled over the treatment of detainees at Yarl's Wood detention centre and, most of all, the DNA database. If her reception was hostile, George Osborne's was off the scale. It was like the arrival of the nasty character in a pantomime. He was booed for almost a minute non-stop. Then he played Cameron's video. Cue more boos. He's on the stage now. He talked about Martin Luther King. Then Barack Obama. And yep, he is getting intermittently heckled. Vince next.
7.34pm: Channel 4 News has just been interviewing Gillian Duffy's niece. She said:
I hope she didn't accept his apology ... If you look at Gordon Brown's smile, for me today I was actually tempted to vote Labour, but if you look at his smile, it's a joker's smile.
Others in Rochdale are asked about immigration. One woman says: "I'm not racist, but I admit they're taking all the jobs and houses – there's several of them round here."
Another woman is asked if she is bothered about immigration. "Everybody is – none of the politicians will discuss it."
7.37pm: The actor Simon Pegg has just tweeted this:
A pic of the Sky journalist that leaked #bigotgate has emerged. He's definitely one of Murdoch's http://tweetphoto.com/20265405
7.48pm: Matthew Taylor has been looking at the backgrounds of the Lib Dem candidates who might win seats next week.
Out of the 40 hopefuls looked at by the Guardian, the overwhelming majority are white and three-quarters are men. Nearly all are political insiders – from senior local councillors to party apparatchiks, lobbyists and a smattering of former MPs. Twenty-seven have previously stood as parliamentary candidates and two are married to sitting MPs.
Tony Travers, from the London School of Economics, said: "What we see is that these people are not exactly a new breed of politician from parts of the electorate who have felt alienated and excluded from the political system.
"It is only in Britain that we could have the great revolution led by a group of people who, in background and experience, are more like the existing parties than any other organisation in the country."
7.54pm: Marina Hyde on "bigotgate".
7.59pm: Just watched Labour's "nightmare on your street" party election broadcast all the way through for the first time. It's the one where sinister bureaucrats come round to people's houses and tell them about all the tax credits, baby bonds etc they will lose when the Tories take over. It's horrible, and yesterday's IFS report raises questions about whether any party can guarantee any of these things, but it will probably tap into a general feeling that the harshest cuts would come from the Conservatives, so it may be somewhat effective.
8.08pm: A new Guardian/ICM poll of Lib Dem target seats has found that Nick Clegg can hope to increase his number of MPs to at least 80. The current tally is 63. This would be the largest number of Liberal MPs since 1923.
A Lib Dem advance on this scale would badly undermine David Cameron's hopes of getting a majority. But there are reasons for Tory optimism in the scale of the Lib Dem advance against Labour. On the average swing suggested by today's poll, five Labour seats would elect Liberal Democrats ... Crucially, there are strong signs in the results that the Lib Dems will also win many other Labour seats.
8.09pm: BBC News is still filming Duffy's front door, and there are still many media types outside there. A BBC reporter said a spokesman for Bell Pottinger PR firm came out of the house to speak for Duffy, increasing speculation about whether one of the tabloids will buy up her story. But according to the BBC we probably won't see the story tomorrow.
8.12pm: If a rightwing tabloid can get a critical story out of Duffy, that might be the perfect front page for them on Friday morning if Brown has done well in tomorrow's leaders' debate.
8.19pm: My colleague Marina Hyde has written that this election is being played out through letters to national newspapers signed by dozens of representatives of one profession or another.
Thus the public is constantly referred to a letter in the Times from 100 moguls, or a letter in the Telegraph from 100 economists, or a letter to David Cameron signed by 50 Asian businessmen. If only such a posse could be got up to pen a simple missive – "Dear politicians, do your own bloody legwork, love from some shopkeepers" – perhaps we'd be free of this increasingly tedious device.
So yesterday we had one from widows' groups in the Daily Telegraph and one from community support officers to the Guardian.
Today's letter is from senior doctors, to the Guardian, and it suggests that cutting and reorganising some medical services might actually "significantly improve patient care. But if it is to be managed well and properly provide the highest quality care in the best clinical environment, it must directly involve doctors, other healthcare staff and the public."
8.23pm: In all the excitement, I missed the Press Association news agency's report about Brown's email apology to Labour activists about the "bigotgate" affair.
Here's the PM's apology in full:
As you may know, I have apologised to Mrs Duffy for remarks I made in the back of the car after meeting her on the campaign trail in Rochdale today. I would also like to apologise to you.
I know how hard you all work to fight for me and the Labour party, and to ensure we get our case over to the public. So when the mistake I made today has so dominated the news, doubtless with some impact on your own campaigning activities, I want you to know I doubly appreciate the efforts you make.
Many of you know me personally. You know I have strengths as well as weaknesses. We all do. You also know that sometimes we say and do things we regret. I profoundly regret what I said this morning.
I am under no illusions as to how much scorn some in the media will want to heap upon me in the days ahead.
But you, like I, know what is at stake in the days ahead and so we must redouble our campaigning efforts to stop Britain returning to a Tory party that would do so much damage to our economy, our society and our schools and NHS, not least in places like Rochdale.
The worst thing about today is the hurt I caused to Mrs Duffy, the kind of person I came into politics to serve. It is those people I will have in my mind as I look ahead to the rest of the campaign.
You will have seen me in one context on the TV today. I hope tomorrow you see once more someone not just proud to be your leader, but also someone who understands the economic challenges we face, how to meet them, and how that improves the lives of ordinary families all around Britain.
Regards,
Gordon
8.28pm: Couple of polls for you.
YouGov for the Sun:
Conservatives: 34% (up one)
Lib Dems: 31% (up three)
Labour: 27% (down two)
According to UK Polling Report, that would result in a hung parliament with the Tories the biggest party, with 259 seats, Labour not far behind with 251, and the Lib Dems with 109.
Harris for Metro:
Conservatives: 32% (up one)
Lib Dems: 30% (no change)
Labour: 25% (down one)
That would result in a hung parliament with the Tories the biggest party, with 255 seats, Labour with 248, and the Lib Dems with 116.
8.32pm: Here's some more from Paul Lewis at the Operation Black Vote event:
For the sake of balance, I should tell you about Vince. He's still talking, but he received by far the warmest reception. That could be surprising, given the Lib Dems have the worst record on ethnic minority representation in parliament – not a single black or Asian face. But Cable told a personal story. He was clearly emotional when he told the audience about his background:
"My father was a passionate believer in colonialism. He was what you might call a white supremacist. I went off to work in an independent African government, and I met and fell in love with a very beautiful woman who turned out to be Asian. And my father couldn't take it. And the family broke apart and we never communicated for many years. I brought up with my wife, my mixed family, in Britain, in the late 60s and early 70s. Some of you in this hall will remember those times. The Powell speeches. The hatred, the fears that were sometimes encountered in the streets. And I often wondered: is it worth staying here in this country – is it safe? I think things changed, and they changed for the better. In my own family, there was forgiveness and reconciliation. My father came to love my wife and my children."
8.39pm: I'm looking forward to tomorrow's final leaders' debate. I'm going to watch it with some friends in the George Orwell pub on Essex Road in north London, so if any of you want to come and say hello and have an argument about the deficit, the Lib Dem bounce or whether Nick Clegg is the British Obama (he really isn't) you're welcome to. Maybe not all 1,091 of you.
I'll also be tweeting the debate from the pub (it's a hard life). The tweets will appear alongside Andrew Sparrow's live blog tomorrow night.
8.40pm: So here's why BBC News felt sure we wouldn't be seeing a Gillian Duffy exclusive in tomorrow's tabloids. The Press Association has just reported:
John Butters, of PR firm Bell Pottinger North, who appeared to be Mrs Duffy's spokesman, said outside her house tonight: "Mrs Duffy won't be making any statement tonight or tomorrow about the events of today."
8.44pm: John Prescott has tweeted this:
Surprise, surprise! RT @tom_watson The Sun pays 50k+ for exclusive interview with Mrs Duffy. Murdoch turning this election into a farce
8.52pm: The New Scientist has an interesting article explaining why no voting system can ever be totally fair. The American economist Kenneth Arrow, it says, listed the attributes of an idealised fair voting system in 1963:
• Voters should be able to express a complete set of their preferences.
• No single voter should be allowed to dictate the outcome of the election.
• If every voter prefers one candidate to another, the final ranking should reflect that.
• If a voter prefers one candidate to a second, introducing a third candidate should not reverse that preference.
All very sensible. There's just one problem: Arrow and others went on to prove that no conceivable voting system could satisfy all four conditions. In particular, there will always be the possibility that one voter, simply by changing their vote, can change the overall preference of the whole electorate.
So we are left to make the best of a bad job. Some less fair systems produce governments with enough power to actually do things, though most voters may disapprove; some fairer systems spread power so thinly that any attempt at government descends into partisan infighting. Crunching the numbers can help, but deciding which is the lesser of the two evils is ultimately a matter not for mathematics, but for human judgment.
9.10pm: Just watching "the incident" again, I wonder what it was about the chat with Duffy that Brown felt was such a "disaster". It really seemed to go fine; he answered all her questions fluently and firmly. He seemed a little embarrassed when she brought up immigration, but he gave her a workable answer. Yet as soon as he gets in the car, Brown seems totally infuriated with Duffy. Perhaps offhand negative attitudes towards immigration really do anger him. If so, it's a shame he feels he can't explain that instead of totally reversing himself and offering multiple apologies.
9.14pm: Here's a picture of Osborne reacting as he gets booed at the Operation Black Vote event earlier tonight.
9.17pm: The Daily Telegraph's Andrew Porter just dropped a pretty big hint on BBC News that we could see "Gillian Duffy: my story" on the front of a newspaper tomorrow morning.
9.35pm: Harriet Harman, the deputy Labour leader, has just been on BBC News talking about "bigotgate".
She said:
I don't think "gaffe" is the way to describe it. He said something he didn't mean and he obviously feels awful about it. All of us from time to time can say something we don't mean. He's said that he shouldn't have said it. He didn't mean to say it. He didn't mean it. Everybody from time to time with hindsight says things they regret.
She repeated this point in several different ways.
She seemed unsure whether Duffy had accepted Brown's apology, as Brown said she had. "It's obviously a very big thing to be brought down on her shoulders as well," said Harman.
Had she spoken to him about it? She said she hadn't. She's been too busy campaigning and speaking at the Operation Black Vote event.
But she said: "I knew what the situation was and knew he immediately regretted it."
Jon Sopel, the presenter, asked what I've just asked: what did Brown find so upsetting about the original chat anyway? Harman did not answer.
There isn't a justification. There isn't an explanation. He isn't seeking to make one.
Andrew Rawnsley, the go-to guy for Brown bad behaviour stories, suggested it was because the PM can't abide anyone who disagrees with him. Harman said:
I'm not trying to say it was because she didn't agree with him. I don't think there's anything to be said beyond the fact that he regrets and he didn't mean it.
Porter said he thought the white working class had been ignored on immigration and this incident showed that happening again. Harman said:
I don't think we are ignoring the issue of people's concerns about jobs which people then express concerns about immigration. The very same issues were raised today when I was campaigning in Dudley ... It's fair enough for people to raise that. But it's fair enough for us to say we've got a fair but firm immigration system with a points base.
She says concerns about immigration are really concerns about the economy.
The concern is for people to be able to get jobs and their kids to get jobs and that's to do with the economy.
Was she surprised to hear about this incident? She repeated the point about saying things you regret. "We all do it."
Pressed on his character, she added:
I don't think anybody would ever say about Gordon that he is laid back. But the reason why he is not laid back is he is concerned about things that need to be done in this country ... unemployment ... poverty. He would be relaxed once there is zero unemployment and everybody has a good standard of living.
9.40pm: I think another damaging aspect of this affair for Brown is that, although many people are aware of Rawnsley's stories about the PM bullying staff, this is the first time the public has seen – or heard – "bully Gordon" in action themselves. I'm thinking specifically of the way he asks: "Whose idea was that?" His irritable tone indicates he is not asking the question to learn the answer, but as a criticism, to rebuke his staff. It doesn't show him as a likeable boss, that's for sure.
9.42pm: Rawnsley has set out his thoughts on the episode in full on Comment is free. He writes:
If there is one consolation for Labour, it is that this could have been so much worse. To Justin Forsyth, the long-serving aide at whom the prime minister was venting in the back of car, this would have seemed a very mild example of Grumpy Gordon. Mercifully for Labour, this was not one of the expletive-rich explosions to which he is prone when really frustrated and angry. The microphone did not capture him using the F-word or pummelling the car seat in front of him. On the Brownout Scale of volcanic eruptions this was only a three or four. For that small mercy, at least, Labour can be grateful.
It is a pretty small mercy, though. I'm not sure how much worse it would really have been if he had sworn too. The swearword would have been bleeped out from most news programmes, and it wouldn't have made any worse the key points, that he seems two-faced and that he seems to consider any discussion of immigration bigotry.
10pm: Here's another poll for you, ComRes for ITV and the Independent:
Conservatives: 36% (up three)
Labour: 29% (no change)
Lib Dems: 26% (down three)
That would result in a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party, on 275 seats. Labour would have 265 seats and the Lib Dems 79.
10.00pm: Amusing tweet from Fraser Nelson, the editor of the Spectator.
Turns out if Brown had a BBC microphone, he'd be ok. BBC guidelines prohibit broadcast of such conversation.
10.02pm: Dave Hill suggests:
Can I be first to predict poll sympathy surge for Gord? I might not be joking.
I was surprised when the bullying accusations seemed to produce a popularity boost for Brown; the public does seem to prefer the real Brown to his more robotic public persona, even if the real Brown is not the nicest guy in the world. So we'll see; a massive newspaper splurge on the issue tomorrow – like today's TV coverage, only much more venomous – could produce the same counterintuitive result as the bullying stories did (not to mention the story about the misspelled letter he wrote to a serviceman's mother).
But somehow I doubt it. As I said earlier, the two key points here are that he seemed two-faced and he seemed to see all discussion of immigration as bigotry. The first is an aspect of character that it's hard to feel sympathy for, and the second is something that a large section of the electorate feel sensitive and angry about. So it's a different kettle of fish.
On the other hand, it has to be said that the more the media concentrate on Gordon Brown the less they keep reminding people that a guy called Nick Clegg is standing for PM.
10.20pm: Sarah Brown tweeted earlier that she was "work[ing] on [a] blog to post up later", leading to hopes she would give her thoughts on today's Gillian Duffy incident. She tweeted again a few minutes ago, but she's still keeping us waiting:
did finally get my blog up for yesterday http://www2.labour.org.uk/my-day-twenty-one [and just finished today's off]
10.32pm: Here's Paul Lewis's full report on the Operation Black Vote event.
10.45pm: On Newsnight, Michael Crick says YouGov has done a quick poll of 500 people. One in 10 said this incident made them less likely to vote Labour. To follow Dave Hill's train of thought, though ... he didn't say how many people it made more likely to vote Labour.
10.48pm: Charlie Whelan, the former Brown spin doctor, has just tweeted this:
Exclusive. Bell Pottinger North fix 50k bid for Mrs Duffy. Sun don't like what she says so spike it #murdochgate
10.56pm: Jeremy Paxman is wearing the same sort of distinctive red socks as Andrew Rawnsley was wearing earlier on. Signs of a media conspiracy ... ?
11.07pm: Let's have a look at tomorrow's papers.
• The Daily Express calls Brown "a hypocrite who shames Britain".
• The Daily Mail goes with: "Demonised: the granny who dared utter the I-word."
• The Daily Mirror shows sympathy for Brown with an interview with his wife, Sarah, under the headline "My Gord's so sorry".
Mrs Brown told the paper: "People may say many things about Gordon, but they cannot say he doesn't care. He phoned me as soon as it happened and was absolutely mortified. He went to see her because he hated the fact he had hurt someone. His apology was from the heart."
• The Daily Star tells its readers: "Bigots: that's what Brown thinks of you!"
• The Daily Telegraph calls today a "day of disaster" for Brown.
• The Financial Times elegantly uses the PM's words against him: "Brown: that was a disaster".
• The Guardian goes with: "Brown 'penitent' after bigot gaffe torpedoes campaign."
• The Independent's witty front page is my favourite. "Poll latest: Labour loses one voter."
I haven't seen the Times or the Sun yet.
11.10pm: Newsnight asked three bands to create a theme tune for the three main parties. Hadouken wrote a tragic rave number with a chorus that ran: "Things can only get worse" (ie under the Tories), which was a nice bit of negative campaigning for Labour. Right Said Fred came up with a singalong pub-rock piece about the Lib Dems. But grime act Nu Brand were by far the best in my opinion, with their surreal anthem backing the Conservatives:
There's Cameron, Osborne, Liam Fox
Don't think they're a bunch of Eton toffs
Of course they're not. Liam Fox went to a state school.
And Nu Brand's song gave William Hague only his second namecheck in musical history, despite having been active in British politics since 1976. (The first, as I'm sure you know, came in the Blacksmith remix of Craig David's Rendezvous: "Far from vague / Was this bluer than William Hague?")
11.22pm: The Times has gone with "Trouble in Rochdale".
11.24pm: Keeping with the musical theme, there's a great headline on the Times website: How Duffy had PM begging for mercy.
11.26pm: Great – here's Nu Brand's Tory anthem in full.
11.28pm: Here's the bit I liked best:
P, I don't really watch TV
But I'm friends with David C
Got him and Samantha on the FB (Facebook)
His profile picture was a big tree
11.35pm: I was criticising the Sun's headline-writers last night, but I take it all back now. Tomorrow's is a classic: a genuinely witty pun without a trace of the nastiness that has been creeping back into the paper lately.
Gillian only popped out for a loaf, but she came back with ...
BROWN TOAST
11.48pm: The trouble with this blog is your bosses can always tell if you sign off early. But I really don't think there's anything left to be said about "bigotgate", so I'm going to call it a night. My foolhardy election prediction of the day: Nu Brand could have a big hit on their hands if they release that Tory song. Good night.
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