I think a nuance of option D has been missed in many explanations. So while many of us have eliminated D, it is not for the right reasons.
Quote:
(D) If the proposed lane restrictions on drivers are rigorously enforced, more people will likely be attracted to downtown businesses than would otherwise be.
Most explanations eliminate D by stating that the option presents a conditional and that the added condition ('rigorously enforced') is an additional requirement that we cannot assume must be met.
In other words, the explanations go something along these lines:
1. We need to support the prediction that implementing lane restrictions will attract more people to downtown businesses.
2. (D) states: If lane restrictions are enforced rigorously then more people will be attracted to downtown businesses.
3. Since we do not know whether the restrictions will be rigorously enforced, this option is incorrect.
Or, put another way, a common explanation is:
1. The answer choice is of the form If X then Y.
2. Since we don’t know whether X will happen, we can’t say whether Y will happen.
Thus the option doesn’t support.
I have two issues with such reasoning.
1. My first issue: The question stem.Quote:
Which of the following would, if true, most strongly support the prediction that the plan would achieve its goal?
What do we need to support?
The prediction.
What is the prediction?
That the plan would achieve its goal.
The prediction is not that the plan will be executed.
The prediction is, I repeat, that the plan would achieve its goal.
Let’s say I make a prediction:
Cleaning our surroundings (plan) will make India a better travel destination (goal).
Am I making both of the following predictions:
1. We'll clean our surroundings
2. Cleaning them will make India a better travel destination.
?
The way I see it, I am not making the first prediction.
Will we clean our surroundings? I don't know.
But, I do predict that if we clean them, India will become a better travel destination.
2. My second issue: Understanding what the answer choice means.Option D does not present a conditional in the sense that these posts explain. It presents a comparison. It is critical that we understand the comparison clearly. Let's understand precisely what the word 'otherwise' implies.
What
is the 'otherwise' situation?
I. Does the answer choice state that if lane restrictions are rigorously enforced, more people will be attracted to downtown businesses than would be the case
if the lane restrictions were not even enforced (i.e. compared with the current scenario)?
II. Or, does it state that if lane restrictions are rigorously enforced, more people will be attracted to downtown businesses than would be the case
if the lane restrictions are not rigorously enforced? (i.e., a comparison between two hypothetical scenarios?)
The first interpretation presents a comparison between a situation in which lane restrictions are implemented and rigorously enforced, and a situation in which the restrictions are not even implemented (the present scenario).
The second interpretation presents a comparison between a situation in which lane restrictions are rigorously enforced and a situation in which lane restrictions are not rigorously enforced.
Hope you notice now that the option actually means the second interpretation (II).
Do you see it?
Now on to the reasoning.
Question: What would support the prediction that the plan would attract more people to downtown businesses?
Quote:
D. If the proposed lane restrictions on drivers are rigorously enforced, more people will likely be attracted to downtown businesses than would otherwise be.
Consider the following scenario: A certain percentage of the population appreciates lane restrictions and would be interested to visit downtown if these restrictions were implemented. However, within that chunk, a sub-percentage would
only visit downtown if the restrictions are rigorously enforced. In other words, if lane restrictions are rigorously enforced, this entire chunk of the population would visit downtown. However, if the restrictions are not rigorously enforced, only a part of this population would visit downtown. This scenario is inline with option D.
But, how does this chunk of the population that appreciates lane restrictions relate to the total visitors to downtown? Does this chunk represent more people than currently visit downtown? We have no idea.
Here's another example to explain this option:
Let's say in a country the voters are to decide between two parties: Marvel (incumbent) and DC.
Now, let's say we have to figure out whether DC would be better than Marvel. And, we're given that
If DC governs well then more people would be happy than would be the case if DC does not govern well. Does this statement lead us to understand how DC would fare against Marvel? It doesn't. The comparison is within two DC situations.
Answer choice D follows a similar structure.
This answer choice has no impact on the argument.
Now, let's add option C to the mix.
Quote:
C. In other moderately sized cities where measures were taken to make downtowns more accessible for walkers and cyclists, downtown businesses began to thrive.
If in these
other cities, similar measures led to the number of visitors going up from their initial numbers, aren't you relatively more convinced that these measures could lead to the number of visitors going beyond the current number in the city in question as well? Of course, there is no certainty. But we are not looking for something that would confirm the prediction. We're simply looking for support, not a confirmation.
I often find students struggle with analogies in strengthen questions.
"If it worked for y, what's the guarantee that it'll work for x as well?" - a paraphrase of a question I often find GMAT takers wondering about.
Answer: There is no guarantee. However, we aren't looking for a guarantee. We are looking for support.
When you just started your GMAT preparation and were trying to decide which course/ resource/ tutor to go for, did you look at reviews and testimonials by other students? If you did, doesn't the same question apply here as well: If a course helped someone else score well, what's the guarantee that it could help you score well also? And the answer is the same. There is no guarantee. However, your belief in the course increases if you look at positive reviews left by test takers whom you might have some similarities with. The same reasoning applies here. Remember 'support' or 'strengthen' does not mean 'confirm'.
In this question, option D is incorrect (it does not support at all), and option C is correct (it supports).
An article in which I discuss analogies in CR answer choices in more detail:
https://gmatclub.com/forum/how-to-handl ... 70572.html.