Post-draft analysis is crazy. The media gives nearly immediate draft grades despite not having access to a team's draft board or the team's draft profiles of players. And it typically takes three years to fully determine how a draft class plays out. With that written, I will do exactly what I just criticized, and give my analysis. Overall, Beane did a good job with this draft even though I don't agree with some of his picks.
The first round trade down was a master class of GM work by Beane. He did not have a 3rd round pick, and at pick 28, he was looking at what might be the best case scenario in terms of receivers available: Worthy, Mitchell, Legette, McConkey, Coleman, etc. Newton was there. DeJean was there. Using the Johnson trade value chart, Beane got just a shade over the value he was supposed to get in the trade down, so it was a fair trade slightly tilted toward the Bills.
The draft proceeded to pick 32, and only Worthy was off the board for receivers. Carolina offered pick 33 with enough value to tilt the trade in Buffalo's favor. Pick 33 is the pole position entering day 2. Teams re-work their draft boards overnight and reset for day two of the draft. For some teams, a player who they didn not expect to be available will be still on the board at pick 33. These teams may offer a trade into pick 33 with better than expect value. A trade did not materialize, and Beane made the pick. I preferred Legette to Coleman, but clearly the Bills did not. But the overall thought process of the organization was perfect. Really nice work.
I was not a pre-draft fan of Keon Coleman. It wasn't the player, but the fit for the Bills I did not like. The Bills already have Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox to run short-to-medium routes. For me, someone more explosive was a better fit for the Bills. I might have considered staying in place for Legette, or even taking DeJean at 33 and working back up from 60.
It took me this weekend to think through the pick. Joe Brady is a Sean Payton student. Payton's offense is a hybrid of horizontal timing and vertical timing. The Super Bowl Saints had Jeremy Shockey at tight end and Marques Colston at receiver. Shockey was the team's athletic tight end and Colston was the big X receiver who wasn't necessarily a burner. In 2010, Jimmy Graham and Shockey essentially went 50/50 at tight end, and in 2011 Graham was the starter as the athletic tight end. Colston and Graham were the duo through 2014. Michael Thomas replaced Colston in 2015. Payton never replaced Graham after he left with another big-time tight end, but the model was easy to see. Get an athletic tight end, a big, basketball style X receiver, a dual threat running back, and then lots of faster receivers surrounding that trio. In that light, I understand the Coleman selection.
I run a ton of online mock drafts uring draft season to see where players fit. I had Cole Bishop to the Bills at 60 in many of my mocks. He's a great fit. If you wanted DeJean, you're going to love Bishop. Smart, athletic, and scheme versatile. He'll be the best safety out of this class. I expect him to start no later than opening day 2025, and he'll play a lot this season in sub-packages.
Defending a power running game is the soft underbelly of the Bills defense. I liked T'Vondre Sweat as a space eater in McDermott's defense. The idea is to put a big tackle in the middle of all these athletic defenders, and let him take up space. For that same reason, I liked McKinnley Jackson from Texas A&M. DeWayne Carter is best as a 3-technique defensive tackle, or a shade nose tackle on obvious passing downs. But with Ed Oliver already on the team, a player like Jackson to back up Daquan Jones seemed logical. I would've picked Jackson at 95.
I really like Ray Davis' story and he's a good running back. I just didn't see that type of need driving a selection at 128. BPA was TJ Tampa, who could have been a depth corner an special teamer. Sione Vaki was a combination safety/running back who could have brought value to both positions as a better version of Siran Neal. Jaden Hicks was a day 2 safety still available. Jordan Magee was a perfect McDermott defense linebacker. And Austin Booker was a 2025 pick taken a year earlier, and someone the Bills could develop. I didn't like the need combined with the pick.
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger is my favorite pick of Beane's draft class. He's battle tested from SEC play and three National Championship runs. He's a battler and a smart interior offensive linemen. To get him in the 5th round is an absolutely steal, Dan Koppen-style. Kudos to Beane and his staff for taking the player who was probably BPA on many team's boards.
I don't know much about Edefuan Olofoshio. He ran an amazing 40 yard dash time at the combine. Based on Dane Brugler's "The Beast," he seams like a core special teams player who fits the team culture. With Beane moving on from so many players, and the Bills needing reserve linebackers, the pick seems like a good mash up of need and who was available on the Bills' board.
Javon Solomon was another really good pick by the Bills. Solomon comes from Troy, a school known to produce pass rushers. He's got long arms for being 6-foot-1 (or even shorter, depending on where he was measured). Solomon is a natural pass rusher who wins with athleticism but also can get pushed around a bit by bigger blockers. He got drafted about where he should have been drafted due to playing lesser competition, but at worst, he's another special teamer and depth defender.
I understand the Tylan Grable pick as a likely BPA and developmental player for the offensive line. The Bills don't really have anyone of note developing behind the starters, so adding Grable makes a ton of sense. But, the BPA at this pick was Brendan Rice, and he was the BPA by 2-3 rounds. I think a player like Grable could have been added as an undrafted rookie free agent. While I like the upside on Grable, I don't like the pass on Rice, especially with the Bills need at wide receiver.
I liked the selection of Daequan Hardy. The Bills needed reserve cornerbacks and with off-season cuts, they no longer have a lot of options at kick and punt returner. Hardy can do both well and has the speed to compete for sub-package snaps. Hardy is a better fit on zone than man, which is odd considering his size and speed, but this was a smart selection by Beane.
I will not pretend that I know a lot about Travis Clayton. From what I do know, it's a smart pick. The kid has legitimate offensive tackle size, left tackle feet, and tight end speed. He reminds me athletically of Jason Peters. What is brillant about the pick is that Clayton cannot be picked off the Bills practice squad because he's in the international player program. The Bills will have a long runway to develop Clayton. He's got all the athletic tools. Smart pick.
Overall, Beane added a lot of depth ono the back end of the Bills roster. That was needed with the off-season roster moves. Carter, Davis, Van Pran-Granger, Solomon, Olofoshio, and Hardy should all make the 53 man roster as depth picks. Grable and Clayton are likely practice squad bound, with Clayton being protected from poaching. With all of them in mind, there's only three of those players who I would have went in a different direction, but even so, Beane did bolster a depleted roster.
Bishop is a future starter and amazing value at pick 60. I think he ends up the best safety from this draft class. If the Bills are filling Brady's offensive requirements, I think we may see a power run game paired with a Sean Payton style passing attack modified to what Josh Allen likes to do. All of that makes sense to me, even if the Coleman pick was not the direction I would have went. And the methodoloy to trade down from 28 was expert-level and a great set of moves by Beane.
I think the Bills will get three starters from this class (Coleman, Bishop, and Van Pran-Granger), and many roster contributors. Beane also picked up 2025 picks, which will be another draft where the Bills pick more than seven players. This draft was a good start for the Josh Allen Bills, version 2.
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