Greetings, everyone.

Back in the day, I used to write FanPosts that broke the season up into 6 sets of 27 games. These sets served as a sort of micro-overview of the Indians Guardians seasons (wow, it’s been a while since I’ve written about Cleveland baseball) and to determine where the team was in relation to making the playoffs. My last season of doing this was 2016 where I had determined that a pace of Run Differential (RDiff) was the most useful way to track progress.

Subsequently, work blocked SBNation sites, real life and children took up a bulk of my time. While I still watched the team in 2018 and 2019, I was less engaged in 2020 and 2021. The 2022 season got me paying closer attention again and I did enjoy 2023, as much as one could. Sometime around January or February of this year, I really got the itch to pay closer attention. When I checked back at CTC, lo and behold, no firewall blocking. I’ve been able to visit News & Notes every day. I also bought the MLB.tv package for the first time in a few years and have been able to enjoy every game so far – mostly watching with my kids.

All that being said, I rediscovered the desire to resurrect the 27 Games Later tracking after the Guardians started 7-2 on that first road trip. Exciting Aprils have been few and far between and this team has been fun to watch. As such, welcome new and old readers to the 2024 27 Games Later posts.

Goal

The goal in a 27 –game set is to finish 15-12. This results would give a team 90-wins on the season and in the AL Central, the division title and a playoff spot. A record of 16-11 would give a team 96 wins and be in the running for best record in the AL. Records of 14-13 and 13-14 would result in 84 or 78 win season. So as you can see, in six 27 game sets, there is 4-6 win difference between AL Champs and waiting for next year. I always like to set the goal at 90 wins because that will comfortably get us to the playoffs.

Set 1 Series

Set 1 took us from Opening Day until April 27. The 27th game fell on the second game of a three game series against the Braves. It started with a 9 (scheduled 10) game road series against Oakland (4), Seattle (3), and Minnesota (2, not including the rainout). The Guardians returned home for series with the White Sox (3) and the Yankees (3). A quick trip to Boston (4), followed by a return home for Oakland (3) and Boston again (3). We finished by going to Atlanta for the 3-game series, but only the first two are counted in this set.

Conventional baseball wisdom wants you to go .500 on the road and win 2 of 3 at home. So for these 27 games, series records of the following is what we aim for:

Oakland

New manager Steven Vogt makes his managerial debut against his old main team, the Oakland Athletics. While many story lines regarding the A’s poor ownership and inevitable move surround the series, hidden in here is a great start to the season by the Guardians with a 3-1 series win. They scored a whopping 29 runs in 4 games while allowing only 9. Shane Bieber is back baby! The offense looks great with Kwan hitting and the bottom of the order and youth having great results with men on base. And this bullpen, wow! Gaddis looks like a new pitcher now in the bullpen, a la Zach McAllister in 2014 and ’15. Cade Smith looks like Captain America. Huge physique, jaw line from an old western and fastball that no one can hit. Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee, and Carrasco looked okay, but we should have a great rotation! A lot of chatter was people poo pooing the offense because it was the A’s and they aren’t a real team. To that I say "Fie. Fie on you." If the Yankees, or the Astros, or the Braves, or whatever good lineup played the A’s, they would expect to score 29 or more runs. The fact that the Guardians beat up on bad pitching doesn’t mean they aren’t legit, it actually means they are legit. If they scored 7 runs over these 4 games, people would (rightly) be bemoaning a bad offense. But a good offense scores a lot of runs against bad teams, which they did.

Seattle

Holy cow Shane Bieber is so back. We are so back, everyone. After a rocky start from Triston McKenzie, Bieber’s K extravaganza and Allen’s rebound start were very welcome. Seattle’s lineup is ok-ish so the pitching got to feast, but their pitching is playoff caliber and Cleveland scored 17 runs in 3 games. Will Brennan also had 3 hits stolen by the Seattle defense, two by Julio Rodriguez, including a home run. His stats belie a strong start with good contact. We wanted to finish a 10-game road trip with 5 wins and we are already there with 3 games to play against Minnesota. A 6 or 7 win record would be great to roll into Home Opener/Eclipse day.

Minnesota

Division rival and favorite to win the division series. We looked great in the first two games with the lineup continuing to consistently hit. Usually, when the Guardians are losing with no offense I feel like we never score again and when they are winning, I feel like they will never lose. This is starting to feel different. Kwan may break DiMaggio’s hit streak record. He is on fire. As is Gimenez and Fry and Naylor and Rocchio. Jose starting a little tepid but has some good hit outs. Bibee and Carrasco give us just enough, and man outside of Scott Barlow and Eli Morgan, our bullpen has been absolute fire. A rainout for the third game and OH MY GOD Shane Bieber needs Tommy John and is out for the season. I have been so sad all day. No big contract for him (he deserves it) and all that time in the off-season at DriveLine to have this happen. I hate this for the guy. Sullen and depressed after an 7-2 road trip feels bizarre but what a blow.

Chicago White Sox

I never know how to explain the feeling of being back in NE Ohio having grown up there but moved away in my teenage years. It feels like home. It is home. The sky has a certain color. The trees are recognizable. Progressive Field is familiar. I was blessed to take my two sons to a game in 2023 on Memorial Day weekend. We walked around downtown at 9 PM with the sun still up. They thought Cleveland was the best place they’ve ever been. Maybe we need to get out more, but maybe they are right. Watching the city have a day as the center of attention with the eclipse and a home opener with a decisive win over the terrible White Sox was fun. We all new reality had to come back at some point but for a moment, we were Kings. Amazing resiliency shown by starting behind 0-5 for two subsequent games the coming back to tie both and end up with a series win. The Guardians have won every series, and have a Run Differential of +35. Sitting at 9 wins and 3 losses, they are almost at their goal wins for the first set and aren’t even half way through.

New York Yankees

The first real test for the Guardians comes in the form of the hated New York Yankees. My mom and her mom were the ones who instilled in my Cleveland sports fandom. Dad grew up in SW Ohio and was never into sports. But my mom was. After the COVID pandemic, she passed away from complications to Parkinson’s disease. She would have loved to watch this team – she loved everyone who played for Cleveland. Tito Francona (Terry’s dad) was her favorite player. And man, did she and grandma hate the Yankees. After divisional realignment in the 90’s, older rivalries died down as new ones arose. Some remained (Detroit) but newer fans of Cleveland do not have the same hatred of the New York Yankees as people who grew up with 50’s Indians. All those great NY teams who every paid baseball analyst and announcer wet dreams about were blocking some great Cleveland teams from experiencing success. And burning resentment remains. Anyone with a study of Cleveland baseball history hates the Yankees. As they should. It’s always a little special to beat them. A day night doubleheader was rough. A close loss followed by the first bad loss by Cleveland. In the past 15 years, outside of ’16-’19, it’s safe to say that Cleveland beats bad teams easily but can’t beat playoff teams. And this looks maybe true this year. I don’t think the Yankees have it, but they look way better than Cleveland does. A 1-2 series loss betrays that it could have easily been 0-3 NY. But it also could have been 2-1 Cleveland. A 2-3 loss in game 1 was a win within their reach. And I can confidently say Cleveland passed its first test. A 10-5 record with +29 RDiff after 15 games is no longer a hot streak, but signs of a good team. I am beginning to believe.

Boston Red Sox

A 4-game series against a beat-up Boston team, but given recent playoff history, Cleveland fans should hate them as well. As we head into the series, I feel good about the offense and the bullpen. The rotation, which we always brag about, is a nightmare. Enter Xzavion Curry. I am low on Curry. I thought he was unimpressive last year and don’t have high hopes. If there is one thing I enjoy more than being right it’s being wrong on a player I was down on. Welcome to my good side Xzavion. It’s hard to leave once you’re there. A dominant Patriot Day win with timely hitting and shut down pitching was awesome. Followed by an extra inning win, a loss to God knows who pitcher, and rainy gutsy performance by Carrasco, we sit at 13-6. Best record in the American League. Run Differential at +37. Second best in all of baseball! I usually do an MVP for each set. Who in the world would I give it to? No single person is the hero. Kwan is on fire and on base every at bat it seems. Gimenez is hitting gaps and vacuuming any ball slower than 198 MPH off the bat. Josh Naylor decided to have an entire season like he had the final 5 months of 2023. David Fry is taking advantage of every situation by raking. Even the ones not in running for MVP are doing what is asked minus a few miscues. But seriously, who is the reason we are winning right now? I’ll have to pay attention over the next few series to find an answer.

Oakland

We return home for a 3-game series against Oakland. Even though the goal is 2-1, we need to sweep these guys. Assert dominance. Well, ask and you shall receive. Guardians, Josh Naylor especially, took advantage of situational hitting to get their first sweep of the season (the shortened MN one does not count), and a wrap on a series season with a team. They win the season series 6-1 against Oakland. Of note, Zack Meisel pointed out that the Guardians are hitting something like over .400 with RISP while holding opponents to less than .100. That obviously cannot last and regression is coming. Otherwise, what a fun weekend 3 game series to watch. At 16-6, they could lose out the rest of set 1 and still be on pace for 96 wins, which is insane. Upcoming they have a 3-game home series with Boston, win one and the second season series is yours. Afterwards, they head on the road for Atlanta and then Houston into Set 2. One thing to note as they look to close out the season series: a starting pitcher has not pitched more than 5.2 innings since April 3. Vogt has managed the bullpen very, very well but the Guardians have to get some length of out of some starters soon to take some of the pressure off. Hentges and Williams should return soon to offer assistance, but Bibee, Allen, or Carrasco needs to log a quality start. I’m glad McKenzie is healthy, but I’m very nervous every time he pitches and feel like a repeat injury is imminent. We now sit at 16-6, best record in all of baseball. Guardians are for real.

Boston Red Sox

Jose is starting to heat up. A close first game until late, and Jose hits a HR into RF batting right-handed. I guess he had not done that in 7 years. Ben Lively has looked great in two starts against the Red Sox and the Guardians finally figured out how to get hits off Tanner Houck. The next game is a rainy gross fest 8-0 loss. Feels like maybe things are normalizing a bit with this loss. Carrasco got lit and my first look at Pedro Avila is nothing worth noting. We all knew Cleveland would come out of the clouds at some point and it looks like they came with the rain. Or not. A gutsy win the next day gives them the 2-1 series win and another season series victory over the Red Sox at 5 wins and 2 losses. Jose did it all in the third game with a grand slam and then a run late that was completely his own hustle habit – steal 2nd, bad throw move onto third, run home on a passed ball. Vintage JRam baseball. Will Brennan is on fire as well. Gimenez and Freeman are cooling, but Jose is about to hit a big hot streak. Starting pitching is odd, McKenize looks better then doesn’t, I don’t know what to do with Allen. I want Curry back up soon. A big test with Atlanta this weekend.

Atlanta Braves

Finally, the Guardians have a series against a bona fide playoff team. Maybe New York, Boston, and Seattle actually make it, but Atlanta has absolutely zero holes in their roster. Their pitching is stellar top to bottom and their lineup will give teams fits. This is a really good test for Cleveland. In this series, I’m more interested in the score of the games than how any wins or losses affect the first set record. Three losses of 6-0, 8-0, and 12-0 would take a lot of air out of the hot start. However, losses of 1-2 runs would validate the start and the Indians would play the rest of the season as AL Central favorites. Game 1 of the series is my worst fear – the Guardians aren’t ready. A performance replete with mistakes in all areas and a thumping by a better team has echoes that the hot start maybe isn’t for real. And then on Saturday, Tanner Bibee shuts down Atlanta with a dominant and I mean dominant performance. Hunter Gaddis has his first miscues of the season but the Guards win it in 11 and prove with a resounding roar that they are here and they are for real. They finish the 27 game set at 19-8. This is pace for 114 wins, which even the most rose-colored glasses aren’t envisioning. But they helped themselves a lot. At 19-8, they can finish 14-13 in the last 5 sets and have 89 wins, which is pretty much a lock for the playoffs. They can go 13-14 the next three months and be at 58 wins at the playoff deadline, which is where Arizona was last year. A 58-51 record at the deadline and they are making moves to push into playoffs. Heck, the Guardians are so far ahead, I just read Quincy’s tweet that the Twins have won 8 in a row and are still 4 games back. No one will straight faced argue this can continue, but this hot start will have a lasting impact on the season.

Conclusion

The last time I did this, I tracked records and run differential. I’m just going to give you the run differential graph here so you can see for yourself below. Based on some quick google searches, it looks like to reasonably expect the playoffs, Cleveland needs to have a season RDiff of +100. In a 27-game stretch, that averages out to about 16 to 17 RDiff. The Guardians are at +44.

RDiff Set 1

Big Runs! Many Wins

I’m going to highlight three areas that stood out most to me:

Most valuable change from 2023: Austin Hedges. Performance aside (and I mean wayyyy aside), I strongly believe his presence has had a huge impact on the players. Several articles and interviews with players have mentioned how he is the core reason the team is having as much fun as they are. It’s why they shake off a bad loss and come back and beat the Braves. It’s why after taking it to Boston they didn’t come home and lay a stinker to the A’s. Hedges is embracing his role and excelling at it.

Show me more for me to be angry when they DFA you: Florial and Laureano. Florial has had flashes but I am lost as to why he doesn’t get more chances against RHP. His strikeouts are high but they sort of always have. I also don’t understand why he isn’t playing any CF. He has way more experience in center than anywhere else and I just don’t get it. Laureano needs to show way more. I get he has a contract and all but the signal was sent when they DFA’s Myles Straw that the 2024 Cleveland FO does not care about that. He looks terrible every game I see him.

MVP: This was a hard one, but I’m going to say Stephen Vogt. A new manager is his first season at the position is going to have obstacles other experienced managers don’t have. He has passed a lot of these. His bullpen usage after losing Shane Bieber has been excellent. He does not get locked into roles with RPs, he puts in the best reliever in the best spot. I have a few micro choice gripes, but it could be him letting players play freely then taking heat when it doesn’t pan out (stolen bases and bunting, for example) or it could be him juggling several things and trying new things out just to see (use of Clase). But when I look at the first set and I have to pick a player who has been the driving force behind success and it is different every game (Naylor, Kwan, Fry, Gimenez, etc), I think I have to go with the manager. His lineups are straight cooking. He has put players into situations where they can succeed and they have done so, with minimal hiccups.

I remember last year, periodically throughout the year, the 1-run game records come out. They would switch results of all games decided by 1-run to see the record. This year, if we do that, Cleveland is 20-7. This start is a not a fluke. This team is for real. They will make the playoffs and I am here for it. See you all 27 games later.