- Damaturu Yobe State Nigeria
- Bukar Abba Ibrahim University Damaturu, Yobe State, Mathematical Sciences, Faculty MemberUPM - Universiti Putra Malaysia, Mathematics Department, Graduate Studentadd
- Survival Analysis, Stata, Medical Statistics, Quality of Healthcare Services, Discriminant Analysis, Probability and statistics, and 19 moreRegression Models, Matlab, LaTeX, Design and Analysis of Experiments, Reliability Analysis, Probability Theory, EM algorithm, Modeling and Simulation, Multiple Linear Regression, Logit & Probit models, Logistic Regression, Expectation Maximization (EM) Algorithm, Bayesian Models, Bayesian Methods (MCMC), Bayesian Inference, Bayesian estimation, R programming language, Applied Statistics, and Bayesianedit
- Associate Professor (Reader) and PhD holder in Applied Statistics (Survival Analysis), studied in Universiti Putra Ma... moreAssociate Professor (Reader) and PhD holder in Applied Statistics (Survival Analysis), studied in Universiti Putra Malaysia, Working with Yobe State University, Damaturu for more than a decade.edit
Infant Mortality Rates (IMR) are important indicators of health status of any country. This research presents Time Series Analysis using Exponential Smoothing and Moving Averages (MA). Six years data on infant mortality covering 2016 to... more
Infant Mortality Rates (IMR) are important indicators of health status of any country. This research presents Time Series Analysis using Exponential Smoothing and Moving Averages (MA). Six years data on infant mortality covering 2016 to 2021 was obtained from Yobe State Specialist Hospital Damaturu. We used Single Exponential Smoothing, which at =2, the model showed a smoothed trend of infant mortality over the period of 72 months. A forecast made based on this smoothed trend indicated a constant rate of infant mortality over the period of 8 months with MAPE = 17.9165, MAD = 4.5133 and MSD = 30.2982. We also studied nature of trend using Moving Averages (MA) and forecast made at length = 4 showed a constant rate of forecast over the period of 8 months with MAPE = 19.3504, MAD = 4.8377, and MSD = 34.1556. Based on the three accuracy measures, single exponential smoothing method presented a better fit to the data. Highest infant mortality was observed in 2021 with total death of 331 w...
Research Interests:
Aims / Objectives: Typhoid fever is a threat to human race and perhaps not much research is conducted towards mitigating it menace in Yobe State. A classical epidemic model SIR is deployed into GLEaMviz software to simulate typhoid spread... more
Aims / Objectives: Typhoid fever is a threat to human race and perhaps not much research is conducted towards mitigating it menace in Yobe State. A classical epidemic model SIR is deployed into GLEaMviz software to simulate typhoid spread and spatially analysed the trend. Study Design: Computational modeling and simulation. Place and Duration of Study: Computational Laboratory, Department of Mathematics and Statistics Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria. The duration of the study is between May 2021 and December 2021. Methodology: SIR epidemic model was used to simulate typhoid spread and time series model was explored to investigate the disease trend. Results: The model predicts mild seasonal fluctuations in the trend which coincides with rainy season. The agents causing the disease transmission is possibly being transported through flowing water. Conclusion: A mild seasonality is present in the fluctuations of the trend of typhoid, hence the pattern shows strong evidence of p...
Research Interests:
A model for bacterial meningitis was created by adding a class of transporters to the basic Susceptible Carrier Infected and Recovered (SCIR) model, since vaccination and treatment are the best methods of controlling the transmission of... more
A model for bacterial meningitis was created by adding a class of transporters to the basic Susceptible Carrier Infected and Recovered (SCIR) model, since vaccination and treatment are the best methods of controlling the transmission of most overpowering sicknesses. Immunization assists helpless people with building either a drawn out invulnerability or transient resistance while treatment decreases the quantity of sickness actuated passing and the quantity of irresistible people locally or country. This study comprises of a mathematical model for bacterial meningitis dynamics that can be used to a wide range of mathematical modeling problems. In this exploration, a nonlinear deterministic model with time reliance controls has been proposed to depict the elements of bacterial meningitis in a populace. We discovered that the (EEP) and (DFE) are locally asymptotically stable in our study. We now advise the researcher to determine whether it is globally asymptotically stable in order t...
In statistical models for censored survival data which includes a proportion of individuals who are not subject to the event of interest under study are known as the long-term survival cured models. It has two most adopted and common... more
In statistical models for censored survival data which includes a proportion of individuals who are not subject to the event of interest under study are known as the long-term survival cured models. It has two most adopted and common models used in estimating the cure fraction namely: the mixture (standard cure) and the non-mixture models. In this research work, we introduce a Bayesian approach using the two models for survival data based on the Beta Kumaraswamy Burr Type X distribution with six parameters and compared with two existing models: beta-Weibull and beta-generalized exponential distributions in analyzing a real-life dataset. The proposed approach allows the inclusion of covariates in the model. The parameter estimation was obtained by maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis methods. The win Bugs and MCMC pack library in R softwares were employed for the Gibbs sampling algorithm in other to obtain the posterior summaries of interest and also the trace plots by the applyi...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Discriminant analysis was introduced by [5] as a statistical method for separating two groups of populations [4]. Extended this multivariate technique to multiple populations. At the basis of observations with known group membership–the... more
Discriminant analysis was introduced by [5] as a statistical method for separating two groups of populations [4]. Extended this multivariate technique to multiple populations. At the basis of observations with known group membership–the training data–so-called discriminant functions are constructed aiming at separating the groups as much as possible. These discriminant functions can then used for classifying new observations to one of the populations. We distinguish linear and quadratic discriminant analysis, and this terminology refers to the discriminant function that is to build. In this case, we focus on Fisher’s method (for two or more populations) leading to linear discriminant functions [6]. The problem can formulate as a simple eigenvector/Eigenvalues problem, and the plan is attractive and frequently used in practice. The discriminant analysis used in situations where the clusters are known a priori.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
We proposed a so-called Beta Kumaraswamy Burr Type X distribution which gives the extension of the Kumaraswamy-G class of family distribution. Some properties of this proposed model were provided, like: the expansion of densities and... more
We proposed a so-called Beta Kumaraswamy Burr Type X distribution which gives the extension of the Kumaraswamy-G class of family distribution. Some properties of this proposed model were provided, like: the expansion of densities and quantile function. We considered the Bayes and maximum likelihood methods to estimate the parameters and also simulate the model parameters to validate the methods based on different set of true values. Some real data sets were employed to show the usefulness and flexibility of the model which serves as generalization to many sub-models in the field of engineering, medical, survival and reliability analysis.
Research Interests: Mathematics and Preprints
Malaria was declared an emergency in Nigeria and strategies for the control of Malaria in Nigeria were adopted to reduce its prevalence to a level at which the disease will no longer constitute public health problems. In this work, we... more
Malaria was declared an emergency in Nigeria and strategies for the control of Malaria in Nigeria were adopted to reduce its prevalence to a level at which the disease will no longer constitute public health problems. In this work, we presented a deterministic (Ross–Macdonald model susceptible, expose/ infected, infectious and recovered) model incorporating the method of control adopted by national Malaria and leprosy control program. We established the disease free and the endemic equilibrium states and carried out the stability analysis of the disease. Free and the equilibrium state. We also carried out numerical simulation of the model to have an insight into the dynamics of the model. We found out that the disease free equilibrium state is stable. The feedback dynamics from mosquito to human and back to mosquito involve considerable time due to the incubation periods of the parasites. In this paper, taking explicit account of the incubation periods of parasites within the human ...
Present research paper envisages investigation of the incidence and prevalence of Broncho-Pulmonary Dysplasia among infants in UMTH and UDUS Hospitals in Maidguri, Nigeria. The data used in this research paper were obtained from the... more
Present research paper envisages investigation of the incidence and prevalence of Broncho-Pulmonary Dysplasia among infants in UMTH and UDUS Hospitals in Maidguri, Nigeria. The data used in this research paper were obtained from the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital (UMTH), Maiduguri and Usmanu Danfodiyo University Teaching Hospital Sokoto with sample size of Seventy (70) patients in 2014; Fifty (50) patients from Maiduguri and Twenty (20) from Sokoto respectively. Discriminant analysis model was employed for the analysis with the help of SPSS. The result of the analysis indicates that discriminant model has a perfect classification of new cases in Maiduguri while it has misclassified one of five new cases in Sokoto. This result suggests that the prediction of Broncho–Pulmonary Dysplasia (BPD) is better done with discriminant model in Maiduguri. The study recommends that Doctors and Clinics should adopt the use of the models built by this research to detect the prevalence of BPD among infants.