The Notes: Rojas’s Hot-streak, Taijuan Walker, and Castellanos’s Cold Start

The last two weeks of Phillies baseball have been mostly fun. Most of the hitters are starting to come around and the starting pitching staff looks as good as ever.

I wanted to hear some feedback two weeks ago for this piece but I didn’t hear anything. I will once again ask for any potential questions, comments, or whatever you want to see me talk about in two weeks.

Johan Rojas’s very good two weeks

I’ve written a lot of negative things about Rojas and my concerns about his offensive game. Just two weeks ago I said it was fair to start having a more pessimistic timeline for Rojas.

Was that premature? Rojas is starting to prove people like me wrong.

I don’t think it’s needed to talk about his overall numbers at this moment as some of the BABIP luck will probably cool off but his approach and feel at the plate look a lot better.

Here are two at-bats, one from the beginning of the season and one recently.

Rojas looks a lot more confident in attacking breaking pitches in the strike zone instead of backing away.

Pierce Johnson’s curveball is easy to back away from at first but it was the type of thing that was happening over and over again the first week or two of the season.

Seems like he’s also cut down the leg kick a little in all situations to generate a more consistent swing and bat path. His launch angle has looked more normal and consistent from swing to swing over the last week.

He’s also doing a much better job at getting good swings against right-handed sinkers. Pitchers like Graham Ashcraft and Frankie Montas ate him alive but now he’s picking them up faster. His single the other way against Justin Lawrence is one good example.

There’s been a few weird singles that I don’t think are sustainable (any hitter on a hot streak gets some weird BABIP luck) but I’m curious if he can keep making adjustments and what teams start doing to him.

Rojas is showing progress which is all you can ask for right now.

Taijuan Walker is coming back soon

Taijuan Walker is coming back soon as he made his final rehab start in AAA, throwing 102 pitches with his fastball that sat around 90 mph.

He went 6.1 innings, allowing four earned runs with three walks and one strikeout. He generated just two whiffs in 43 swings.

He may be been conserving since these games shouldn’t matter but the signs are still pointing to a pitcher with significantly diminished stuff.

Walker fell apart in the final two months of the 2023 season. All of his pitches bled velocity, he didn’t miss many bats, and he struggled to throw strikes.

Taijuan Walker’s first 4 months last year:

3.93 ERA 4.32 FIP

93.2 4S velo 92.8 sinker 87.8 mph cutter 88.3 splitter

20.6% K-rate 9.7% BB-rate

Final 2 months:

5.43 ERA 5.01 FIP

92.1 4S 91.5 sinker 86.1 cutter 86.9 splitter

15.1% K-rate 9.7% BB-rate

As far as we know in 2024, all of those things look worse despite what he’s been saying. He threw just 59 strikes in that last rehab start, has generally sat around 89-91 in his outings, and isn’t missing bats.

It’s hard to imagine this going well unless he’s conserving way more than we think. He was a good pitcher last year when he sat around 93-95 mph but those days look like they’re in the past.

Walker is due for $54 million over the next three seasons. Moving him to the bullpen so Spencer Turnbull, a pitcher who has 137.2 major league innings and Tommy John Surgery since 2020, can start was never going to happen.

But it is hard to imagine Walker being an average pitcher, let alone a good one. There’s more evidence that his ERA will likely start with a 5 than not.

Time will tell and I can’t blame the team for making this call (they have to do this) but it doesn’t mean it’s going to end well.

Tough start for Castellanos

Nick Castellanos is sitting with a .447 OPS and while it’s bound to be better, there are questions about what type of season the club is in for.

He may be making adjustments to cut down on the strikeouts. He struck out a career-high 185 times last season but found a power stroke when doing so.

However, his exit velocity is down and he’s carrying roughly the same swing decisions as last season. Maybe he looks to swing harder and deal with the strikeout and chase issues to get at least a bit more offensive production.

I don’t think it’s time to panic about the bigger picture with Castellanos, at least not until the calendar hits June.

I think the bigger question is what his OPS may look like at the end of the season and if it’s going to be good enough to feel good about the offense heading into October. It’s hard to imagine them pulling the plug on someone who is owed $40 million AFTER this season.

Part of the thinking process with carrying someone like Johan Rojas was that Castellanos would give you above-average offense. If that’s not going to happen then you’re talking about a lot of offensive sacrifices (at least Rojas plays gold-glove defense).

He’s not the only one. Bryson Stott is carrying an OPS below .600, Whit Merrifield has been a total disaster for them, and JT Realmuto has a .635 OPS.

However, Castellanos doesn’t have the same track record as Realmuto, the defense someone like Stott or Rojas carries, and is a much more important offensive piece than Merrifield.