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Rangers series preview: Taking on the champs

To be the best, you have to beat the best.

Texas Rangers v. Arizona Diamondbacks Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images

The Texas Rangers come into Kansas City for the first time ever with the title of “defending champs.” Former Royals pitcher Chris Young built a team that bested the Arizona Diamondbacks last fall to bring the first World Series championship to the Dallas metroplex.

The Rangers have gotten off to a pretty good start in their title defense, but have gone 7-9 against teams that made the playoffs last year. They’re already without All-Star third baseman Josh Jung, as well as All-Star pitchers Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, and pitcher Nathan Eovaldi left his start this week with groin tightness.

Texas Rangers (17-15) vs. Kansas City Royals (19-13) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Rangers: 4.53 runs scored/game (16th in MLB), 3.97 runs allowed/game (10th)

Royals: 4.62 runs scored/game (14th), 3.06 runs allowed/game (1st)

Only eight teams have hit more home runs than the Rangers this year, after they finished third in baseball with 233 dingers last year. Outfielder Adolis Garcia is tied for fourth in baseball in home runs, and he hit two home runs with 11 RBI in just five games against the Royals last year. Second baseman Marcus Semien has been one of the toughest hitters to strike out this year. Shortstop Corey Seager is off to a slow start and is hitting just .143 against lefty pitchers with a 43 percent strikeout rate. Utility player Josh Smith has filled in nicely for Jung, leading the league in doubles with ten. The Rangers have just 14 stolen bases, the fourth-fewest in baseball.

Rangers expected starting lineup

Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
Starting Lineup PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
2B Marcus Semien (R) 144 5 1 .256 .313 .436 1.3
SS Corey Seager (L) 128 2 0 .219 .305 .289 0.2
1B Nathaniel Lowe (L) 45 1 1 .316 .422 .447 0.4
RF Adolis Garcia (R) 126 8 4 .292 .349 .566 1.1
LF Evan Carter (L) 113 5 2 .222 .310 .444 0.5
3B Josh Smith (L) 104 2 0 .318 .423 .500 1.2
DH Wyatt Langford (R) 126 1 1 .230 .302 .301 -0.3
C Jonah Heim (S) 103 3 1 .263 .291 .384 0.5
CF Leody Taveras (S) 105 1 2 .229 .288 .333 0.1
Bench PA HR SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
C Andrew Knizer (R) 26 1 0 .115 .115 .231 -0.3
IF Ezequiel Duran (R) 52 0 1 .213 .288 .255 0.0
IF Davis Wendzel (R) 17 1 0 .118 .118 .294 -0.1
OF Travis Jankowski (L) 25 1 0 .217 .280 .391 0.1

Michael Lorenzen was an All-Star last year with Detroit, but performed poorly over the last two months of the year. He has rebounded with the Rangers a bit through three starts with the Rangers, although he gave up five runs in six innings his last time out against the Reds. He has a deep arsenal that includes a 94 mph four-seamer that opponents are hitting just .143 against, as well as a slider, sinker, and change up.

Dane Dunning needed just 69 pitches to strike out ten hitters with no walks in a win over the Reds in his last start. He has one of the best strikeout rates in baseball, with his slider generating a 41 percent whiff rate. Opponents are hitting just .190 against him this year and he has yielded a groundball rate of 44 percent.

The Royals have not yet named a starter for Sunday’s game. Texas will start Jon Gray, who was drafted by the Royals out of high school, but did not sign. He hasn’t given up more than one earned run in a start since his first outing of the year, and he went eight innings his last time out to earn his first win of the year. He has a very low home run-to-flyball rate, suggesting some good luck so far, and he throws his slider nearly half the time.

Expected pitching matchups

Friday, May 3, 6:40 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Friday, May 3, 6:40 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Michael Lorenzen 4.24 4.96 17.0 7.4 4.8 0.0
RHP Brady Singer 2.62 3.98 34.1 8.9 3.4 0.3
Saturday, May 4, 6:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Dane Dunning 4.13 5.28 32.2 10.7 4.4 -0.1
RHP Michael Wacha 4.24 3.99 34.0 7.4 2.4 0.4
Sunday, May 5, 1:10 CT ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Jon Gray 2.48 2.80 32.2 9.6 3.0 0.9
TBA

Closer Will Smith moved on to the Royals, with Texas signing veteran Kirby Yates to close games this year. He has yet to give up a run this year, is allowing opponents to hit just .077 against him, and has converted all five save opportunities. José LeClerc lost out the closing role to Yates, and gave up six runs in his first three outings, but hasn’t given up a run in his last six outings. Veteran reliever David Roberston has struck out 30 percent of batters he has faced at age 39. José Ureña was signed to a minor league deal and has been a pleasant surprise as a starter and reliever. Overall, the Texas bullpen has a 3.75 ERA with the 11th-best strikeout rate.

Rangers bullpen

Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Bullpen ERA FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Kirby Yates 0.00 1.55 12.0 10.5 2.3 0.6
RHP David Robertson 1.08 2.60 16.2 10.8 2.7 0.4
RHP José Leclerc 6.00 4.80 12.0 9.8 7.5 -0.1
RHP Josh Sborz 0.00 1.29 4.1 8.3 0.0 0.2
RHP Jonathan Hernandez 0.00 3.57 2.1 3.9 3.9 0.0
RHP Cole Winn 0.00 1.57 7.0 9.0 1.3 0.1
LHP Jacob Latz 2.87 3.26 15.2 7.5 2.3 0.2
RHP José Ureña 3.60 3.54 20.0 7.2 3.6 0.2

The Rangers took five of six from the Royals last year on their way to winning it all. They went 5-5 on their last road trip, and are looking to capitalize on this one that will take them to Colorado and Oakland after this series. The Royals can really establish their bona fides by taking down the champs this weekend.

Poll

How will the Royals fare this series against the Rangers?

This poll is closed

  • 10%
    Royals sweep 3-0
    (13 votes)
  • 54%
    Royals take 2 of 3
    (69 votes)
  • 33%
    Rangers take 2 of 3
    (43 votes)
  • 1%
    Rangers sweep
    (2 votes)
127 votes total Vote Now