For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2019-20 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

Not surprisingly, the defending national champions top both the ACC and national four-year ranking tables. It also isn’t a surprise that two of their rivals join them in the top national four, as Virginia, Duke, and UNC all ranked in the top five last season. However, the bottom of the conference still has work to do if the ACC is to catch up to the top-ranked Big 12. Last season, only two league members—Boston College and Pittsburgh—sat outside of the top 100 nationally. Heading into 2019-20, Wake Forest joined them, with Georgia Tech sitting 97th. Otherwise, more ACC teams rank in the top 50 (11) than the Big 12 has members total (10).

Ranking The Schedules

As the ACC heads into its first 20-game conference slate, its non-conference schedules improved on aggregate, but not to the level the Big Ten’s did when making the transition last season (they ranked fourth nationally in 2018-19 and fifth this year). But while the aggregate picture is decent for the ACC, there’s a lack of quality at the top, with just two top 60 schedules, compared to four a season ago. Most of the movement is due to teams upgrading their schedules to “average” from “flat-out bad.”

It feels like many teams decided to slightly upgrade their schedules with the ultimate aim of having the two extra ACC games push them over the NCAA Tournament cut line. While that tactic worked for the Big Ten last season, ACC teams seem to neglect that their challenge partners’ were able to pull that off because its stronger non-conference scheduling provided a solid base for the league’s NET rankings.

Not surprisingly, with fewer non-conference games available, the ACC is playing fewer non-conference road games this season. However, league members increased their total of non-Power 7 away contests. But two of these games get asterisks: North Carolina travels to Spokane to play Gonzaga, not your typical mid-major, while NC State takes on UNCG at the Greensboro Coliseum. While that’s the Spartans’ part-time home floor, it’s also a regular home for the ACC Tournament, including the 2020 edition.

Note that just seven of the 15 ACC teams will play more than one road game, and none of them will play more than two. Then there’s Virginia Tech, which won’t hit the road at all outside of ACC play.

Georgia Tech is one of the six power conference teams to schedule a non-D1 foe, as they’ll host Division II Morehouse in a cross-Atlanta matchup on January 28th.

No games scheduled or possible against: Summit

The ACC’s challenge partner, the Big Ten, leads the way in terms of the raw number of games scheduled, while the conference many ACC teams share a football rivalry with, the SEC, ranks second. There are no real surprises in terms of the rankings of the leagues below the top two, but several conferences saw their matchup totals drop as a result of the reduction in ACC non-league games. The biggest losers are the Atlantic 10 (dropping to a mere 4 games after 13 a season ago), Big East (4 from 7), and Southland (3 from 10). On the other hand, the Big South and SoCon, two conferences sharing the ACC footprint, held roughly steady.

Detroit Mercy (Horizon) and Alabama A&M (SWAC) are the only two teams that will play three ACC foes during non-conference play. Both will play Clemson, oddly enough. While Georgia Tech takes on three SEC opponents, Virginia will face a trio of America East squads and Virginia Tech lined up a similar total of MEAC foes. That’s a major reason why the Hokies’ schedule rates so poorly nationally.

While ACC teams saw their individual slates decrease in size by two games, the quality of opposition didn’t increase all that significantly. League members still play the majority of their home games against teams likely to find themselves in Quad 4, meaning ACC squads need to step up away from home. As a point of comparison, last season 15 ACC members managed to play 86 total games against Quad 4 opposition during non-league play with a 13-game non-league schedule. This time around, they’ll play 77 with an 11-game slate. That’s not even a decline of one Quad 4 opponent per team.

The ACC By Team

Teams are listed in order of their Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking.

Teams that failed to max out their schedules (6/15): Clemson (no fourth MTE game), Georgia Tech (didn’t use Hawai’i exemption), Miami (no fourth MTE game), Virginia, Wake Forest (no fourth MTE game)

7. North Carolina Tar Heels

While the Tar Heels’ non-conference schedule ranks 7th nationally, it’s at the very top when looking at only the Power 7. While the four-year rankings flatter some of Carolina’s opponents, for example a UCLA club that had a rough 2018-19 and a Wofford outfit that will be coping with plenty of personnel losses, UNC’s participation in the Battle 4 Atlantis, a Big Ten Challenge contest against Ohio State, visit from undervalued, Ivy-contending Yale, and that game in Spokane against Gonzaga provide real quality.

42. Duke Blue Devils

Other than the Blue Devils’ opener in New York against Kansas and trip to preseason No. 1 Michigan State for the Big Ten Challenge, there are a lot of question marks and bad teams on this schedule. While Duke’s second game in the Empire Classic should provide real value, particularly if Georgetown shows continued improvement. Otherwise, there are a whole bunch of teams going through a transition (Georgia State, Wofford, California) or struggling to live up to past glories (Stephen F. Austin, Winthrop, Colorado State).

94. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

The Yellow Jackets won’t be participating in this season’s NCAA Tournament, thanks to penalties resulting from major recruiting violations. So, a trip to Honolulu for the Diamond Head Classic over Christmas week and four difficult power-conference matchups, including three against SEC opposition, will have to serve as consolation for Josh Pastner’s squad this season.

95. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Having followed up 2017’s NCAA bid with a pair of 11-20 campaigns, Danny Manning enters the 2019-20 season on the hot seat. And while there are three winnable home games and a trip to Charlotte to take on a rebuilding 49ers program, there’s potential for a rough start here. Late November through early December shapes up to be particularly difficult for the Demon Deacons (and for many other ACC teams, for the record) because of the combo of exempt event-Big Ten Challenge-second early ACC matchup. The reason Wake might find things more difficult than the rest: those games are bookended by a game against Atlantic 10 contender Davidson in Charlotte and the renewal of the Skip Prosser Classic against Xavier in Winston-Salem.

111. Florida State Seminoles

I really hope Florida State fans make the trip to Niceville for the Emerald Coast Classic or head to Sunrise the Saturday before Christmas to see the Seminoles take on a South Florida team that should be better than it’s four-year ranking. That’s because FSU fans, particularly those with season tickets, won’t get much value until ACC play begins. Leonard Hamilton’s squad will be sternly tested away from the Tucker Center, however, particularly over Thanksgiving weekend. If the Noles can knock off Tennessee in the semifinals at Northwest Florida State College, they might get a chance to knock off Purdue for the second season in a row (and honestly, a game against A 10 favorite VCU would be nothing to sneeze at either). Plus, FSU starts on the road at archrival Florida, which the Seminoles will look to defeat for the sixth straight time, and heads to Indiana for a tantalizing Big Ten Challenge matchup. But that home slate really drags this schedule down.

113. Miami Hurricanes

Similar to the case in Tallahassee, Miami fans residing near Coral Gables don’t have much to look forward to over the first two months of the season, though I suppose they could charter some buses and head up to Orlando for the UCF game. Things will have to break right for the Hurricanes to head into conference play with some decent non-league results to hang their hats on, as the Knights and their American rivals from Temple might take a step back this year and Illinois heads into the season as a potential, but not confirmed NCAA threat. Jim Larrañaga’s squad will likely need to top Missouri Valley favorite Missouri State in the quarterfinals in Charleston to have a shot at racking up two or three early quality wins. Otherwise, they’ll have to wait for league play to kick into full gear.

118. Syracuse Orange

While the Orange only leave the state of New York once during non-conference play (and again, you could level similar criticisms against many of Syracuse’s ACC rivals and other Power 7 teams), there is plenty of intrigue on a slate that has potential to be far better than the four-year rankings indicate. But again, this another mid-tier ACC schedule that will require some things to break right for it positively affect Syracuse’s season. While the NIT Season Tip-Off field doesn’t include any surefire NCAA squads, all three of the Orange’s potential opponents could make the field, as could Big Ten Challenge foe Iowa and ancient rival Georgetown. But Jim Boeheim’s squad could end up playing multiple NCAA qualifiers anyway thanks to the quality of the mid-majors lined up, including defending Patriot champ Colgate; Bucknell, likely the Raiders’ main rival for that title in 2020; Oakland, a threat to claim the Horizon crown; and the North Florida, who will contend in the ASUN.

158. Virginia Cavaliers

While the Cavaliers are likely to take a step back after claiming the 2019 NCAA title, this schedule is more than a little disappointing. The highlight is the rematch of the South Regional final against Purdue, this time taking place at Mackey Arena. Otherwise, even a down Virginia squad should be able to take care of business at the Hall of Fame Tip-Off and against a home slate that does feature a pair of potential banana peels in American East heavyweight Vermont and a South Carolina squad that should be better than last season’s version.

160. Louisville Cardinals

The Cardinals’ schedule should rank higher, thanks to a Big Ten Challenge matchup against Michigan, the annual showdown with Kentucky, and a Jimmy V Classic matchup against NCAA runner-up Texas Tech. But the bulk of Louisville’s home schedule is made up of low-quality opponents Chris Mack’s squad should pummel, with the Cards’ exempt event looking particularly weak.

182. Boston College Eagles

After taking a major step back in 2018-19, Jim Christian is another coach firmly on the hot seat, as he heads into his sixth campaign in Chestnut Hill—still looking for a first NCAA bid. While this schedule should provide the Eagles with some early confidence and possibly a gaudy record heading into January, it’s questionable whether many of these games will help Boston College build an at-large profile. Neither of the top-70 opponents, Belmont and Northwestern, are guaranteed to reach those heights this season. And while South Florida should be improved and Saint Louis eager to build off a surprise Atlantic 10 Tournament title, Cal and DePaul are again likely to be among the worst teams the power conferences have to offer.

212. Clemson Tigers

Last season, the Tigers followed up an NCAA bid by stumbling a bit out of the gate, going 10-3 in non-league play. And while Brad Brownell’s team did defeat both Lipscomb and South Carolina, early losses against Creighton, Mississippi State, and Nebraska put Clemson in a hole it wasn’t able to escape during ACC play. This schedule offers fewer chances for the Tigers to get off to a good start, with (again) late November to mid-December looking like a crucial stretch. However, the draw for the MGM Resorts Main Event isn’t favorable, while a road game against Minnesota is a very difficult matchup in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. That stretch closes with a home game against in-state rival South Carolina, which follows an ACC road contest against FSU. Clemson will also need to be wary of a non-conference finale against a quality Yale outfit.

232. NC State Wolfpack

The Wolfpack were famously left out of the 2019 NCAA field because of a truly-putrid non-conference schedule, which featured a whopping eight teams that ended up ranked outside of KenPom’s top 250. Kevin Keatts’ gambled that the ACC schedule was going to be enough to earn a bid, but it wasn’t, even with a non-conference win over Auburn. Keatts didn’t leave quite so much to chance here, as State visits Auburn this time, hosts the Wisconsin team that knocked the Pack off in Madison last season, and takes on Penny Hardaway’s second Memphis squad in Brooklyn. But there are still seven teams ranked worse than 200th in the four-year ranking on this slate, so NC State may ultimately need to take advantage of the expanded ACC slate to get back in the field of 68.

254. Pittsburgh Panthers

The third game of Jeff Capel III’s second season in charge of the Panthers will see Pitt being good neighbors, as they help Robert Morris open its new arena, helpfully sponsored by the University of Pittsburgh’s Medical Center. That serves as the Panthers’ lone true road game of the non-conference campaign, as they’ll face eight opponents back at the Petersen Center and visit Southwest Florida for a pair of games. Pitt was unfortunate to draw Kansas State in the semifinals of the Fort Myers Tip-Off, when the Panthers should have a shot to defeat either Northwestern or Bradley on night two. Otherwise, the biggest challenges come at home against a West Virginia squad that struggled last season and a Rutgers club that’s a fair matchup for the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.

255. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

While the Fighting Irish are projected to be far better than last season’s 14-19 squad, they could run into NC State-like trouble come March, thanks to this home-heavy non-conference schedule. Mike Brey’s squad takes on six teams from outside of the four-year ranking’s top 250, which means Notre Dame had better take advantage of its Big Ten Challenge trip to Maryland, the Crossroads Classic showdown with Indiana, and a visit from UCLA, heading into its first season under Mick Cronin.

326. Virginia Tech Hokies

Mike Young’s first Virginia Tech non-conference schedule isn’t the worst among the power conferences, but it’s close, as both Rutgers and East Carolina managed to do slightly worse. Other than the trip to Maui, there’s nothing terribly exciting here, and to make matters even worse, Tech, admittedly heading into a rebuilding year, misses out on a Big Ten/ACC Challenge game. Still, there are five sub-300 games here, and the three MEAC opponents all rank among the bottom six in all of Division I according to the four-year ranking.

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