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Bracketology 2024: The Bubble Collapses

After Friday’s action, particularly the drama-filled evening, there are very few at-large places available. Plus, the four No. 1 seeds are virtually set in stone.

By ChrisDobbertean Updated
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A vintage look at the Cut Line picture for the projected men’s NCAA D1 tournament bracket for Saturday, March 16, 2024.
Graphic by Chris Dobbertean using logos from SportsLogos.net and College Sports Logos on Twitter. Donald Duck (©️ Disney)

Text-Only Bracket for Screen Readers and Seed List

Key

  • Conference logos indicate auto bid holders. If the conference logo is fused to the team logo, the team won its conference tournament and earned the auto bid.
  • Colors next to seed numbers represent movement relative to Friday’s bracket: gold (new entrant), green (up 1+ seed line), red (down 1+ seed line)

Ins and Outs (6)

IN: Colorado (Pac-12), Fairfield (MAAC), Howard (MEAC), Texas A&M, UC Davis (Big West), Western Kentucky (CUSA)
OUT: Norfolk State (MEAC), Pittsburgh, Providence, Quinnipiac (MAAC), Sam Houston (CUSA), UC Irvine (Big West)

Bubbling Under: Cincinnati, Villanova, Kansas State, App State

Lowest-ranked NET at-large: Virginia (55)
Lowest-ranked KenPom at-large: Virginia (68)
Highest-ranked NET exclusion: Indiana State (30)
Highest-ranked KenPom exclusion: Wake Forest (31)

22 single-bid conferences

Saturday’s Slate

The number of games left is dropping—after 52 Thursday and 36 on Friday, there are only 23 on the schedule, all of which have bracket impact. That’s because 13 bids will be awarded between now and the arrival of Selection Sunday in the Pacific Time Zone, and the 10 other games will determine who will play for the five bids up for grabs tomorrow.

All tip times are p.m. Eastern unless noted. An asterisk (*) indicates the tip time is approximate.

You can also find the schedule for all of today’s games at the top of Conference Tournament Central.

Championship Games

America East: (2) UMass Lowell at (1) Vermont, 11 a.m. (ESPN2)
MEAC: (6) Delaware State vs. (4) Howard, 1 (ESPN2)
The defending champion Bison knocked off top-seeded Norfolk State.
MW: (6) New Mexico vs. (5) San Diego State, 6 (CBS/College Basketball Coast to Coast (radio))
The Lobos are now 22nd in the NET. Unless they get their doors completely blown off—to historic levels—I don’t see how they’re left out after getting this far.
Big 12: (2) Iowa State vs. (1) Houston, 6 (ESPN)
The Cyclones aren’t as secure on the 2 line as the Cougars are on the 1.
Big East: (3) Marquette vs. (1) UConn, 6:30 (Fox)
It’s a similar story for the Golden Eagles and Huskies.
MAC: (8) Kent State vs. (2) Akron, 7:30 (ESPN2)
MAAC: (5) Saint Peter’s vs. (2) Fairfield, 7:30 (ESPNU)
The Peacocks upset top-seeded Quinnipiac last night.
ACC: (10) NC State vs. (1) North Carolina, 8:30 (ESPN)
I don’t think the Wolfpack will make it without the auto bid.
CUSA: (5) UTEP vs. (3) WKU, 8:30 (CBSSN)
The Miners eliminated regular-season champ Sam Houston in the semifinals.
Big West: (4) Long Beach State vs. (2) UC Davis, 9:30 (ESPN2)
The Beach took down No. 1 UC Irvine in Friday’s first semifinal.
SWAC: (3) Texas Southern vs. (1) Grambling, 9:30 (ESPNU)
Winner will undoubtedly join the MEAC champ, Montana State, and Wagner in Dayton.
Pac-12: (4) Oregon vs. (3) Colorado, 10:30 (Fox)
If the Buffs win, only they’ll go. If the Ducks win, both may reach the field.
WAC: (3) UT Arlington vs. (1) Grand Canyon, 11:30 (ESPNU)

Semifinals

Ivy: (4) Brown vs. (1) Princeton, 11 a.m. (ESPNU)
Big Ten: (5) Wisconsin vs. (1) Purdue, 1 (CBS)
A Boilermaker loss would crack the door for either UConn or Houston to jump to No. 1 overall with wins.
SEC: (9) Mississippi State vs. (4) Auburn, 1 (ESPN)
The Bulldogs should safe after dominating Tennessee yesterday.
Atlantic 10: (9) Saint Joseph’s vs. (5) VCU, 1 (CBSSN)
Last year’s champs are the highest-remaining seed in Brooklyn after Friday’s chaos.
Ivy: (3) Cornell vs. (2) Yale, 2 (ESPNU)
American: (4) UAB vs. (1) South Florida, 3 (ESPN2)
Bubble fans will need to root for the Blazers. After yesterday, there may not be room for the Bulls if they don’t win the auto bid.
Big Ten: (3) Nebraska vs. (2) Illinois, 3:30* (CBS)
The Huskers are in a good place after demolishing Indiana, while Illinois could drop back down to the 4 line with a loss.
SEC: (7) Texas A&M vs. (6) Florida, 3:30* (ESPN)
The Aggies’ 7-5 record against Quads 1 and 2 still gives me pause, but their 7-6 Quad 1 record is far better than the 4-7 one Rutgers built last season when it was left out after also racking up five Quad 3 losses. However, A&M may need to win this game to avoid Dayton.
Atlantic 10: (7) St. Bonaventure vs. (6) Duquesne, 3:30* (CBSSN)
American: (11) Temple vs. (2) Florida Atlantic, 5:30* (ESPN2)
Bubble fans will also want to cheer on the FAU Owls because the Temple Owls could create a serious problem tomorrow afternoon with a victory.

I’ll have more updates through the day as events warrant.

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