Nigeria is confronted by multiple security challenges, notably the resilient Boko Haram Islamist insurgency in the north east, long-running discontent and militancy in the Niger Delta, increasing violence between herders and farming communities spreading from the central belt southward, and separatist Biafra agitation in the Igbo south east. Violence, particularly by the Boko Haram insurgency, has displaced more than two million people, created a massive humanitarian crisis, and prompted the rise of civilian vigilante self-defence groups that pose new policy dilemmas and possible security risks. Crisis Group seeks to help the Nigerian government by shedding new light on the country’s security challenges, de-escalating risks and tension, and encouraging regional and gender-specific approaches toward ending the violence durably.
Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have left ECOWAS, the regional bloc that sanctioned them after military officers seized power in each. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi assesses the import of these events for West Africa’s security architecture and Nigeria’s influence therein.
Military operations continued against jihadists, bandits and other armed groups, but killings and abductions persisted while herder-farmer and separatist violence also flared.
Army reported gains in anti-jihadist campaign in North East. Govt continued “clearance campaign” against Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram militants around Lake Chad and Sambisa Forest in Borno state. Notably, troops 9 May raided ISWAP enclave and killed six fighters near Goniri village, Damboa area, while army 19 May said it rescued 386 people from Boko Haram strongholds in Sambisa Forest. ISWAP 28 May killed 31 fishermen with 40 others missing in Kukawa area, and 30 May ordered all residents of area to leave by 1 June or be killed.
Criminal group violence remained high in North West and North Central zones. Despite govt operations, armed groups continued killings and abductions in several states including Kaduna, Katsina, Kogi, Niger, Plateau and Zamfara. Notably in Zamfara, gunmen 7-11 May killed almost 50 and abducted over 100 civilians in eight villages in Anka and Birnin-Magaji areas. In Plateau, armed group 20 May killed around 50 in attack in Wase area. In Niger, armed groups 24-27 May reportedly killed at least six people, raped at least ten women and girls, and abducted 160 others in Munya area.
Herder-farmer violence persisted in North Central zone. In Benue state, armed group 3 and 14 May attacked Ogbaulu village in Agatu area, killing at least thirteen villagers; local official blamed attacks on herders. Meanwhile in Plateau, gunmen 8 May killed two herders and hundreds of cattle in Bassa area; chair of local Fulani organisation condemned attempts to “annihilate” community.
Biafra separatists and military continued to clash in South East zone. In Imo state’s Orsu area, army 7 May said troops had killed key commander of separatist group Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) armed wing Eastern Security Network and two of his lieutenants near Ihiteukwa town. In Abia state, gunmen 17 May killed two soldiers and civilian in Aba city and 30 May killed five soldiers and six civilians in Obingwa area; military blamed attacks on IPOB, vowed fierce response.
We must take these [Nigerian presidential elections] polls with a generous amount of salt.The poll samples are small and focusing on literate people.
The two jihadist groups in north-eastern Nigeria have bruised each other badly in internecine fighting. But they are still a menace to civilians, both in Nigeria and in the other Lake Chad states. The governments cannot afford to shift their gaze from the militant danger.
Two years after the suicide of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau, jihadist factions continue a battle for control of Nigeria’s north east. In this Q&A, Crisis Group assesses the situation and lays out what authorities should do in response.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be sworn in as Nigeria’s president on 29 May, following an election dogged by legal challenges. With a weaker mandate than any of his predecessors, the new leader should take steps to reunite a fractured country facing numerous other problems.
In this online event, Crisis Group experts explore possible scenarios of the forthcoming Nigeria general elections.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Crisis Group’s trustee, Lagos-based lawyer and human rights activist Ayo Obe, and Crisis Group's Senior Adviser Nnamdi Obasi, about Nigeria’s forthcoming elections, held amid deteriorating security and a currency crisis.
The largest, most youthful electorate in Nigerian history will head to the polls soon to decide high-stakes presidential, parliamentary and state-level races. Numerous violent incidents have already marred the campaign. Authorities can take several steps to lessen the dangers before, during and after the vote.
Authorities are keen to return or resettle the millions of people who fled homes in Borno state, the epicentre of fighting with Islamist militants in north-eastern Nigeria. But risks abound. The government should slow down its effort, focusing on protecting the displaced from further harm.
Nigeria’s forthcoming general elections, with four presidential candidates of note, will be hard fought. In this Q&A, Crisis Group outlines what is at stake and how key actors are preparing for the polls.
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