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Preston Gralla's picture
Preston Gralla

Seeing Through Windows

Linux loses ground on netbooks -- can Android save it?

Here's more evidence that the Linux threat to Windows is over: A new study concludes that Linux is losing ground in the netbook market. When it comes to Linux on the desktop, the war is over --- unless Android comes to the rescue.

A new report about to be released from Ovum paints a dim current picture of Linux netbooks. Laurent Lachal, Ovum's Open Source Research Director concludes:

after a strong start, Linux netbooks have now been overtaken by Windows netbooks and Linux is lagging increasingly behind in terms of sales.

And that, he says, is the bright spot for Linux as a desktop operating system:

Linux's performance in the netbook segment is still outstanding compared to its overall performance in the desktop market.

Ovum's conclusion mirrors that of others. I've previously written about a survey from the research firm NPD Group that concludes Windows now has more than 90% of all netbook sales.

However, Ovum believes that there may be a niche for a new generation of even less powerful and less expensive netbooks, powered by Google's Android operating system, based on Linux. These "appliances" will often be special purpose, rather than general purpose devices. As for Ubuntu as an alternative to Windows, Ovum believes its best days are behind it. Lachal concludes:

Linux vendors should focus on the netbook as an appliance and on specialised distributions, especially Android (which is currently focused on smartphones). These are more likely than generic distributions like Ubuntu to make it in the netbook appliance/MID [mobile Internet device] space.

Even there, though, Android won't be much of a threat to Windows as a desktop operating system. As I've blogged before, when it comes to Linux on the desktop, the game is over.

What People Are Saying

BSD saves Linux?

Maybe half of BSD (NetBSD/OpenBSD libc, userland, superpages and some drivers in Linux kernel, ...) in Android will save Linux, well this would I call irony :-)

It's not just Preston. All

It's not just Preston. All over the tech press there are stories of Linux being defeated on netbooks and the triumph of Windows. Interesting spin given that Linux had no share a couple of years ago and Microsoft by their own admission to their stockholders is got killed financially clawing back their market share from Linux in the netbook market. When W7 arrives they are going to try and make money by shipping a low-end W7 SKU and then trying to up-sell you to a function version. Lots of people are going to love that one. Wonder how many people are running Microsoft Office on their netbook? Software that's more expensive than the machine it runs. Yeah, Microsoft is winning against open source. Keep telling yourself that. Hey, someone's got to keep their stock price dropping another 40% in the next 12 months.

Ballmer says Linux is Bigger Competitor than Apple

Just a few weeks ago, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer publicized that Linux is a bigger competitor to Windows than Apple...

http://tinyurl.com/debyky

:D

Quit feeding the troll people

I used to actually read Preston's drivel. But now, like once was the case with Enderle (whatever happened to him anyway), I figured all that was happening was silly attempts to generate page hits. Linux will do just fine. All you have to do is look at the worldwide picture to see the inescapable rising demographic tide.

So nothing to see here folks. Let's just all move along.

Preston Grella are you still whining?

Preston, you are really a piece of work. What did those Catholic nuns do to you to make you such a sociopath? Rather than write something helpful you continue to play the "useful idiot" for Micro$oft, bashing Linux as you cling to a bloated, poor excuse for an operating system. And as you can't stop complaining, I shall here after dubbed it "Whindows" in your honor. While Windows has some uses (a decreasing number as time goes by) some of us prefer an operating system that does not cost consumers huge sums of money to obtain or "upgrade".
As a missionary to Africa, I put Ubuntu on 20 used PCs and was able to provide a very nice suite of applications to people who earn about $2 a day. They would be hard pressed to afford a Windows operating system, the obligatory and obnoxious anti-virus software or an incredibly expensive "office suite". Apart from the hardware and my time, I could do this for free. Try that with Windows for less than $5,000 or $10,000 Preston.
Though I speak like this I am thankful for the Windows operating systems because without them, I would be out of work. I make my money rescuing Windows PCs from malware and viruses (a problem I have yet to have with Linux).
Preston... you need to grow up or at least get back on your meds.

So something greater than 0% is a loss, you a banker too?

Stop watching the shiny ponies, Linux 3 years ago shipped on 0% of systems, so shipping on even 1 system is an increase of market share.

Mindless drivel, more systems ship with windows and end up with linux than the other way around, mostly cause Microsoft makes it such as pain in the Ass, rather than the other way around.

Bottom line, Don't tell me how linux cant change the world tell me what it is your expecting your Microsoft sales channel Manager is going to do to complete against a truly Free product?

Are we done yet?
Tnt

Statistics of sales don't equal usage.

I dare say 90% of the people who use Linux on the desktop bought a computer with Windows and replaced Windows with Linux, because that's what was available and priced reasonably. Until netbooks came along, even the vendors who offered computers without Windows sold those computers for the same price or even more than comparably configured Windows computers. So what's one to do? Pay more to avoid the Windows tax? Most would just go ahead and buy the Windows computer and wipe it out to use their preferred OS. They can always use that Windows license for something, or give it to a friend or sell it on an auction. I suppose the difference in price was paid for by selling drive space to all those software companies that wanted their trial versions factory installed on the computer. In the case of netbooks, I've considered buying the Windows version just to get the bigger hard drive and more RAM out of the box, then, as others here have indicated, go ahead and install my own Linux on it.

Reason Linux is not making as much progress.

1) Webcam support
2) Wifi support
3) Graphic card Support lags
4) codec support
5) marketing
6) No sharepoint interface (You microsofters know about this)
7) Marketing
8) Marketing

Marketing is the killer. We need better marketing.

The real victory

http://www.w3counter.com/globalstats.php

First this stats site shows Linux climbing slowly month over month. Realistically Linux only needs to get enough market share to get more applications ported to it or WINE to be a sucess..

The real threat to Microsoft is in pricing as Linux as a Whole forces Mircosoft to lower XP prices. Open source applications such as Open Office, Gnu cash, Evolution all are becoming better options so Microsoft may have to charge less for Office, Money, Outlook... ect. This hurts them in pushing into new markets with monopoly power with less money they couldn't loose as much on msn or xbox.

Will Linux threaten Microsoft maybe but more importantly Open Source forces Microsoft to compete with quality products and lower prices. Whether or not you choose to use Linux that is something we can all cheer about.

There is a foolproof plan in place to reverse the trend.

1) Offer the next gen mainstream OS with an artificial restriction.
2) Rely on this restriction to be intrusive enough to force an upgrade to a premium version but not intrusive enough to cause a return of the machine.
3) 1 & 2 need to be hidden enough to dupe sales but not so hidden it brings about Vista Capable Lawsuit Version II

Seriously, what more COULD the Linux enthusiast crowd ask for.

On the story, Microsoft exercised it's iron grip on brick and mortar venues to simply not carry Linux versions. So, no surprise it isn't doing very well there. Coerce OEMs to offer 19 flavors of each machine with XP, offer 2 versions with Linux (which constantly sell out, especially in Europe while XP machines are always plentiful). DESPITE this, 30% of all netbooks are still Linux, and overseas, Europe, it is obviously flirting with the 50% range to offset the market stifled 10% Microsoft has accomplished in North America.

Bottom line though, 2 above is bound to fail for a LARGE portion of consumers and 3 is a distinct possibility. Worst case, MS has to drop Home Premium to the same $23 it dropped XP to in a harder and harder to accomplish effort to forestall Linux at all costs. Even this is good news. The more they have to pay to play, the less they have (enormous margins) to pay to stifle every other market.

TripleII