Nigeria gives census result, avoids risky details
Source: Reuters
By Felix Onuah ABUJA, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Nigeria announced an overall population figure of 140 million on Friday but stopped short of publishing a breakdown by region that could have disrupted preparations for next April's landmark elections. Africa's most populous country conducted its first headcount in 15 years in March and the National Population Commission (NPC) had promised a result by the end of the year. But many politicians and civil society groups had advised delaying the release until after the polls to avoid violence. Censuses are controversial in Africa's top oil exporter because rival ethnic and religious groups have tried to use them to assert their numerical superiority and claim a larger share of oil revenues and political representation. "The provisional result of the Nigerian population census is 140,003,542 (people)," NPC Chairman Samaila Makama told President Olusegun Obasanjo, cabinet ministers and reporters at the presidential villa in Abuja. Makama said the final results would be available in six to eight months -- after the elections. Obasanjo said the figure of 140 million was within a range that the government had been using for planning purposes. Most previous estimates of Nigeria's population ranged between 120 and 150 million. Next April's polls should mark the first time in Nigerian history that one elected president hands over to another. Nigerians are also called to elect their state governors and representatives to the national and state assemblies. In August, a forum convened by the electoral body expressed fears that the census results could aggrieve certain communities and fuel violence. Ethnic and religious fighting has killed an estimated 15,000 Nigerians since 1999. POLITICAL DYNAMITE In an effort to stave off objections to the results, the NPC had excluded faith and ethnic background from the 2006 census questionnaire. But even a breakdown by region is considered explosive because it could challenge old assumptions underpinning Nigeria's complex political system. Nigeria was ruled by the army for most of its history since independence from Britain in 1960, and all but one of the military dictators were from the north, which is predominantly Muslim and where the Hausa and Fulani ethnic groups dominate. Obasanjo, a Christian and an ethnic Yoruba from the southwest, has been in power since 1999, but many southerners still fear perpetual northern domination. Hence the question of whether there are more people in the north or in the south is political dynamite. Similarly, Nigerian history has been marked by fierce rivalries between the three biggest ethnic groups -- Hausa in the north, Yoruba in the southwest and Ibo in the southeast -- culminating in a 1967-1970 civil war during which the Ibo heartland tried to secede under the name of Biafra. The ruling People's Democratic Party has just chosen a northern Muslim, Umaru Yar'Adua, as its presidential candidate, in accordance with the concept of "rotation" whereby power must go back to the north after eight years in southern hands. If, for example, the census breakdown had shown that southerners were now more numerous, this could have challenged the need for rotation and caused trouble for Yar'Adua. Three previous censuses in 1963, 1973 and 1991 ended in fiasco after wrangling among the three main ethnic groups. The results were either discredited or cancelled altogether.
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