Great Expectations: Looking at Osobor’s Closest Comparisons

Washington fans got amazing news first thing Monday morning when Great Osobor announced his commitment to the Huskies. Last year’s Mountain West Player of the Year averaged 17.7 points and 9.0 rebounds per game under Coach Sprinkle for a team that was a #8 seed and finished 51st at KenPom. Obviously, he’s a very good player.

The news cycle over the last 36 hours has been about ESPN’s report that Osobor will earn up to $2 million in NIL deals while at Washington. Some of that money is certainly coming from outside sponsorship deals not directly affiliated with the University of Washington. Some of it is surely coming from a few big money donors. We can talk elsewhere about the potential wisdom of spreading that money around versus using that sum on one player but all that Husky fans will really care about next year is how Osobor produces when on the court.

Long-time readers will know that I keep a number of handy spreadsheets including one that covers power conference college basketball. I have data going back to the 2012 season which is well before the start of the transfer portal which makes it useful in times like these to gain some historical insight.

I went back over the last decade to look for players that were fairly close to Great Osobor in statistical output to try to see how they performed after transferring. That should help give some perspective as to what is a realistic next season for Osobor regardless of his NIL figure.

I used the following criteria in my search to cast a reasonably wide net:

• Entering 4th or 5th season of college basketball
• Designated as a PF or C
• Transferred from a non-power conference school to a power conference school
• Used over 500 offensive possessions
• Over 0.9 points per possession on offense and under 0.9 point per possession on defense per Synergy data tracking

That subset produced a sample of 16 players going back to 2016. Only two of those players though came before 2021 and 13 of the 16 were in the last two seasons when the transfer portal and the extra Covid eligibility year accelerated player movement. The average per game stat line for those 16 players in the season before they transferred was:

17.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 blocks, 49.8% FG, 55.2% 2pt, 28.6% 3pt, 73.3% FT

And how does that compare to Osobor’s complete numbers from last year?

17.7 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.4 blocks, 57.7% FG, 59.1% 2pt, 21.4% 3pt, 70.7% FT

Those players on average were a little bit better shooting the ball from deep and from the free throw line and a little bit worse on the boards and blocking shots. But overall those are pretty comparable stat lines. That seems like a pretty good start.

Now, let’s check in on how those players performed once they transferred onto a power conference roster:

11.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 blocks, 48.7% FG, 54.4% 2pg, 26.1% 3pt, 73.6% FT

Unsurprisingly, their stats fell pretty much across the board. The shooting splits stayed relatively close to the same but the counting stats dropped to about 70-75% of their totals at their previous school.

It’s worth noting though that Osobor put up his stats on a team that was much better than any of the other players in the sample. That group of 16 includes players transferring from Cornell and LIU Brooklyn and The Citadel. Osobor’s numbers were for an NCAA at-large team in a conference that got 6 teams into the tournament. If you were going to give the benefit of the doubt to any player being able to recreate his stats it would be one that did it for a very good team and is playing for the same head coach.

So what happens if we look through that group of 16 players to try to find the ones that are the absolute closest parallels to Osobor? I compared all of those stat components between each player to find the ones with the all-around game most similar to Osobor.

There’s no such thing as an exact comp. But all three players averaged at least 15.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and made at least 58% of their 2-pointers and fewer than 30% of their 3-pointers while standing at least 6’8. It’s going to be hard to find a much better sample. When you average their stats they’re almost identical overall to Osobor’s stat line last year. Let’s look in more depth at each of them from least to most similar to Osobor.

Grant Basile- 6’9, 235 lb

From Wright State- 18.4 pts, 8.5 reb, 2.0 ast, 1.6 blk, 58/28/78% 2/3/FT

To Virginia Tech 16.4 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.7 ast, 1.1 blk, 61/39/71% 2/3/FT

Basile was the do-everything star for Wright State as a redshirt junior. He was a stretch center at 6’9 who preferred to work around the basket but still took 137 three-pointers at Wright State. The Raiders (I’m sure you knew their nickname) made the NCAA tournament as a #16 seed that season as the Horizon League auto-bid despite finishing 4th in the regular season conference standings. They won a First Four game against fellow #16 seed Bryant before getting trounced by Arizona.

After transferring to Virginia Tech, Basile was used increasingly as a floor stretching center option which put a dent in his rebounding totals. The move made sense though as he shot over 10 percentage points better from the three-point line as the 4th option much of the time and took 100 fewer 2’s than the previous season but 40 more 3’s.

Virginia Tech ended up losing in the first round of the NIT on the road and finished 80th at KenPom. Basile led them in scoring and was second on the team in rebounds.

Grant Nelson- 6’11, 230 lb

From North Dakota State- 17.9 pts, 9.3 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.7 blk, 60/27/72% 2/3/FT

To Alabama- 11.9 pts, 5.9 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.6 blk, 62/27/81% 2/3/FT

Nelson dominated the competition in the Summit League as a true junior but North Dakota State lost in the finals of their conference tournament and finished under .500 overall for the season. While with the Bison he finished 34th in the country in defensive rebounding rate and was top-100 in both usage rate and free throw rate while shooting over 60% on 2’s. Nelson stepped out and shot about three 3-pointers per game but only made 27.2% of them.

He transferred to Alabama who was coming off a season where they were the #1 overall seed entering the NCAA tournament and play a high flying offense that loves to shoot from deep. Nelson’s rate stats look remarkably similar to what he did while at NDSU but his usage rate dropped from nearly 30% to nearly 20% and his per-game totals dipped because of it. The one thing that did fall off was his rebounding because his DR% fell from 26% to 17% which was more in line with his performance as a freshman and sophomore.

The Crimson Tide lost quite a few close games in the regular season that saw them drop to a #4 seed but managed to make the Final Four before losing to eventual champ Connecticut. Nelson had his two best games of the season perhaps against a pair of #1 seeds in UNC (24 pts, 12 reb, 5 blk) and UConn (19 pts, 15 reb, 1 blk).

Josh Oduro- 6’9, 240 lb

George Mason- 15.6 pts, 7.5 reb, 2.6 ast, 0.9 blk, 58/23/62% 2/3/FT

Providence- 15.9 pts, 7.5 reb, 2.0 ast, 1.3 blk, 57/29/82% 2/3/FT

Oduro played a full 4 seasons for George Mason and then transfer before his 5th season due to the Covid mulligan. As a senior he led GMU in just about every statistical category for a solid but not spectacular team in the A-10. He technically could step outside to try a three-pointer (1 attempt per game) but only shot 23% so he was almost entirely a post-up center but with only so-so rim protection skills.

Upon transferring to Providence he saw almost no drop-off in his production. His rebounding and assist rates dropped slightly but he actually was a slightly better shot blocker and shot better both from deep and the free throw line. He didn’t become a sniper or anything but made nearly 30% on twice as many attempts and beat his previous career high free throw mark by more than 10 percentage points.

The Friars were one of the first teams out of the NCAA tournament and wound up losing in the first round of the NIT when they were missing their star point guard.

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Those 3 players closest to Osobor wound up averaging 14.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game on 51.2% FG shooting. Those numbers are good production. A player with those stats is probably making 3rd team all-conference in the Big Ten. But if that’s your best player then you’re probably in a bit of trouble if your goal is an NCAA tournament appearance.

There is at least one comparison in Oduro above who saw pretty close to no drop-off despite moving up a level. George Mason in Oduro’s final season there had the 173rd ranked strength of schedule while Utah State last year for Osobor was at 87th. As mentioned previously, Osobor has a lot more going for him than anyone on this list to put up similar numbers despite a step up in competition.

If Osobor comes out and averages something like 16 points and 8 rebounds per game and finishes 1st or 2nd team all-conference in the Big Ten it wouldn’t be totally without precedent. And the historical comparisons show that it is very unlikely that Osobor isn’t at least a very good player for Washington. But it would be a good idea for Husky fans to expect something like a 10-15% drop in his per-game numbers while at UW. Better to be pleasantly surprised if Osobor eclipses those totals than to be disappointed if he doesn’t live up to his new billing as the highest (publicly known) paid player in the sport.