2024-25 Rockets players career inventory - Part one

The start of the 2023-24 NBA Playoffs finds the Golden State Warriors emphatically eliminated by the (depleted) Sacramento Kings in the play in game. The Los Angeles Lakers are about to begin a series against the NBA Champion Nuggets, and perhaps the result will be different this year, in the the Lakers might take a game or two, but I think that’s about the most they can hope for, barring a miraculous intervention by the ghost of David Stern.

The Phoenix Suns and LA Clippers are both yet to play, but neither looks especially strong, for different reasons.

Why all this to begin something about where the Rockets stand? Because those four teams, or rather the key players of those four teams, might truly be riding off into the sunset. It’s certainly been a slow ride, the barest walk, rather than a trot, let alone a canter, but it appears to be gathering pace. The sun is still setting and Lebron, PG13, Steph, Klay, The Violent Sociopath, The Beard, KD, The Forklift, Day-To-Davis, Fake Star Beal, are all of them riding into that sunset, though at different speeds. No, of course it’s not all over for any of them, but time marches on for all of us, the mighty and famous, and the obscure. The sunset and that good night await even Lebron’s career.

The vast majority of the aforementioned superstars enjoyed relatively good health, despite being in the mid-30s and later portion of their careers. That good health did not take them to the peak of their conference. In the case of the Lakers, it barely got them out of the 10-11 spots. If generally good health isn’t enough, what about more typical mid to late 30s health?

The Old Guard is departing, and new teams are rising. Will the Rockets be among them? Let’s look at what the Rockets have on hand, in stock, to compete in the West.

I’ve broken the players current under contract, or with team options into different groups, by age at the start of the 2024-25 season. Today we’ll look at the older Rockets, their contract situations, and likelihood to return.

I’ve also followed the pretty obvious “I can’t really see us signing anyone.” breadcrumbs from GM Rafael Stone’s presser with Ime Udoka, and have assumed that with the exception of the player taken by the Rockets (if they don’t trade the pick) with the Nets pick, the Rockets roster will not change much going into next season.

Late Career Players Age 34+ - Jeff Green, Boban Marjanovich

Jeff Green will be 38 to start next season. He’s under contract at 9.6 million with a team option. I suspect he’ll be retained, as he showed himself to still be springy, versatile, and mostly effective, especially in the more limited minutes he saw with the emergence of Jock Landale and Amen Thompson late. As a smallball/utility big, Jeff Green still has real value.

Boban Marjanovic (36) is simply wonderful. If our last Rockets memory of him is the last game of the season destruction of Plumlajuwon and Daniel Theis, and making sure the fans got free chicken on two missed free throws, where he did everything but wink as he missed the second one; that’s a great way to go out. He’s an unrestricted free agent. Perhaps his fate as a Rocket depends on whether the Rockets make and keep both the Nets pick, and their 2nd round pick?

Late Peak/Early 30s Players - Fred VanVleet, Steven Adams, Reggie Bullock

Fred VanVleet (30) is under contract for $42.8 million in 24-25, but the subsequent year is a team option. I think, given the Rockets likely need and desire to pay Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun that Fred’s team option will almost certainly be declined. That said, he might well be retained in 25-26 at a lower salary number. That’s looking perhaps too much ahead. There are two key things to remember from Fred’s first season in Houston that will most likely be true in in the 24-25 season.

The first is, the Rockets were pretty good when he was on the court, and not at all good when he wasn’t. It’s really almost that simple. Maybe Fred is basically “training wheels” for the young Rockets, and if so, he’s really helped, and will most likely do it again for another year. Hopefully by 25-26 the Rockets will have some combination of Amen and Jalen running point. Fred’s 30 right now, and he’s neither a big, nor an athletic player, so paying him a lot going into his mid 30s is probably not the Rockets plan. He’s certainly skilled and crafty enough to be an ideal bench PG in his mid 30s, but not at anything close to $40 million per season.

Second, why does anyone care about, or object to, Fred’s salary in the two years he’s being paid? Is it your personal money? NBA teams now MUST spend a certain amount of money. Who was coming to a terrible situation in Houston without an overpay? This isn’t NBA 2k. You can’t just sign whomever you want. Would it have been better to spread the money around with say two $20 million players with Fred’s salary, because again, teams must spend? Whose minutes would the second hypothetical player take? Alpie’s? Jabari’s? Jalen’s? Forget about seeing more Cam or Amen. Because, typically, highly paid players...play.

Steven Adams (31), if healthy, should be a fantastic backup center to Alperen Sengun. If unhealthy, he’s not a huge salary hole, and he might be movable in such a case as an expiring deal. With Jock Landale retained, as I expect he will be, you’d still have a good backup center.

But Adams is reportedly healthy now. What will the Rockets do with three good centers? Hopefully something creative with Sengun, that re-engages his passing and offensive initiating ability. Simply put though, Adams is an enforcer, and now Sengun can take a break from certain match ups, certain beatings, and Adams can lay down the law. Adams certainly fits well with the “We like to get thrown out of games.” style the Udoka Rockets displayed down the stretch.

Last season the Rockets never really got to use two actual centers. When Alpie was doing great, which was most of the season, Jock Landale was suffering from the loss of his Antipodean Power Mullet, and simply couldn’t play basketball. When Jock’s mullet returned, along with his ability to play NBA level hoops, Alpie was hurt. Instead we got a lot, a whole lot, of 37 year old Uncle Jeff “I Started Out As A Big SF” Green playing center.

Steven Adams does two things at an elite level, besides look like Aquaman’s tougher big brother. He screens for drivers, in the paint especially, and he gets offensive rebounds. Since the Rockets already have two astoundingly good offensive rebounders in Amen Thompson and Tari Eason, it’s possible to envision a Rockets unit that simply laps the field in offensive rebounds. Generating extra possessions via offensive rebounds is one great way to make up for iffy shooting, and the Rockets might well be best in the NBA at doing so.

Reggie Bullock (33) - Unfortunately Reggie’s hair game seemed stronger than his on court game for the Rockets. On paper Reggie looked like a great signing. And he shot the ball well. And yet, he mostly seemed invisible, and never really found a reliable spot in the rotation. He’ll be an unrestricted FA and I don’t see him returning.

That’s it for the players in their 30s. Only one, Fred VanVleet, projects to be a starter. Only Adams and Green look like regular rotation players. Only Uncle Jeff is in the Old Player category (if Boban isn’t back).

Given the hypothesis above, that eventually time runs out on older teams, even ones comprised of superstars, the Rockets appear to be in a very different place than those teams. Perhaps a place that will see them emerge first as a playoff team, then, quickly as a title contender?