Boris Johnson is expected to conduct his long-awaited reshuffle next week, with No 10 now considering keeping loyalist minister Rishi Sunak in the Treasury to keep an eye on the chancellor, Sajid Javid.
Sunak had been tipped to head up a new economic super-ministry but those plans are in doubt and Johnson is thought to want to keep him in his current job as chief secretary to the Treasury, overseeing the spending review coming up later this year.
The reshuffle, expected next Thursday or Friday, comes as different ministers and advisers jostle to get close to the prime minister, whose circle of confidants has become clearer in recent weeks.
This has also highlighted the tensions between Javid and No 10 advisers including Johnson’s senior aide Dominic Cummings.
Although Javid is expected to keep his job as chancellor and has good personal relations with the prime minister, bad feeling has been simmering at adviser level since as long ago as the summer. Tensions erupted once again last week after allies of Javid briefed that he had swung behind HS2, meaning it was likely to go ahead – stealing the thunder of the announcement from No 10.
Another briefing against Cummings and in favour of Javid emerged on Wednesday after it was reported that the chancellor won the battle over appointing Andrew Bailey as governor of the Bank of England against the adviser’s choice, Andy Haldane.
Furthermore, Buzzfeed reported on Monday that a new “Pizza Club” of ministers had been set up to plot against the huge influence of Cummings, who has made clear he is watching their performance and wants them to engage less with the media.
Sunak has been repeatedly talked up by allies of No 10 as a favourite of the prime minister. He was trusted to do television debates in the election in Johnson’s place.
His name was subsequently briefed as a possible business or finance secretary in charge of a new economic super-ministry to rival the Treasury. However, this change may be at least postponed for now, following lobbying from the Treasury against this and a recent move to grab control over the government’s skills programme.
One Tory source said: “He’s trusted in the Treasury and No 10 thinks he’s good at his job.”
Another Whitehall change under consideration is the possibility of a merger between No 10 and the Cabinet Office, centralising power and downgrading the importance of the Treasury
According to a paper drawn up by a quartet in No 10, including Cummings and policy chief Munira Mirza, this was mapped out as a longer-term option for reforming the way power in Whitehall works.
In the shorter term, the reshuffle could bring a merging of the Foreign Office and the Department for International Development, with Dominic Raab put in charge of both.
A string of female ministers have been rumoured for the axe, including Theresa Villiers, the environment secretary, Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, and Thérèse Coffey, the work and pensions secretary. Liz Truss, the trade secretary, had also been thought to be under threat but she was repeatedly praised by Johnson in a speech about Brexit on Monday.
Caroline Nokes, a former Tory minister, warned at an event in parliament on Wednesday that the reshuffle would end up with a “cabinet full of men” as there was “no pipeline” of female junior ministers ready to step up.
Male cabinet ministers who are considered to have fallen out of favour include Johnson’s former ally Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, after cabinet clashes, Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, and possibly Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, over his Grenfell blunder during the election.
Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister who has led no-deal preparations, has been tipped for a bigger “chief executive of government”-type role but is also suggested for the job of coordinating the COP 26 climate summit in November, which would involve a huge amount of travel.