Rishi Sunak took the final decision to call a summer election on two key statistics – a drop in inflation and falling net migration – but Conservative insiders also hope that the surprise July poll will put new scrutiny on Labour’s plans.
Sunak and his closest advisers believe their best chances of success lies in setting a clear distinction between a long-term plan that is beginning to bear fruit and Labour’s ideas – which they want to put under the election spotlight at a moment where the opposition could be caught off guard.
The prime minister is said to feel that Labour has avoided the most difficult scrutiny until now and that there is little below the surface of Keir Starmer’s missions beyond the promise of economic stability. One source said: “We are essentially forcing a choice: does the public really want a Labour government? Do they genuinely think a Labour government will take the difficult action required?”
Other private motivations are likely to include damage control. An autumn general election was received wisdom in Westminster because Sunak’s only hopes seemed to hinge on more time – for inflation to fall, for the Bank of England to cut interest rates, for wages to increase, for flights to Rwanda to take off.
A summer election means Sunak has concluded that time is against him and the worst is yet to come. His party is 20 points behind Labour in the polls and – if he had waited – would perhaps be 25 points behind by the autumn.
No prime minister has ever called an early election when their party’s fortunes are at such a low ebb. But those polls show no signs of narrowing and his own personal ratings – some of the lowest on record – are only sinking further. There is no obvious bear trap waiting for Starmer that could make any material difference.
The Tory party itself has decided against yet another regicide and concluded that he will be the man to lead them over the cliff edge. Now many have concluded the longer Sunak puts off the inevitable, the fewer of them will remain at the next parliament. A large number have disappeared from Westminster, either to work their seats or to polish up their CVs for what’s to come.
There is only so long that this glum Tory truce can hold – and it was very unlikely to survive the party conference in October. That was the big risk of calling a November poll: in terms of party management, Sunak would be able to exercise very little control over a parade of his own ministers and backbenchers making their case to take his place.
Conservative MPs have greeted the news with a mixture of distress, expletives and weary resignation. “It’s all very well putting Labour on the back foot but he puts his own MPs on the back foot as well,” said one.
Sunak has been able to time his announcement around two pieces of good news: inflation is at its lowest level for almost three years and legal migration is falling – visa applications across key routes have fallen by 25% from the start of 2024.
But it is a small crumb of comfort. The decline in inflation was smaller than expected and, privately, Treasury figures have no hope of an early interest rate cut. No one in No 10 truly believes that people have started to feel the effects in their weekly shop yet. And irregular migration is not falling: arrivals on small boats are up nearly a quarter compared with the same period last year.
A key plank of a November election campaign would have been further tax cuts. But Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, are staring into an empty cupboard. Government insiders believe that a key reason behind Wednesday’s call was a warning from the International Monetary Fund of a looming £30bn hole in the public finances.
In public, the government rejected the IMF’s argument that there was no room for a third cut in national insurance and instead the Treasury should consider unpopular measures such as cuts to public spending or scrapping the triple lock on the state pension.
There are other, smaller advantages to a summer election. It avoids a clash with the US election in November and the chaos that any stray comment from Donald Trump could have thrown into the grid, if the US and UK had run parallel campaigns.
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There is also a small chance that the long-promised flights to Rwanda will have taken off in the last weeks of the election campaign – but that is nowhere near certain.
The snap decision will mean Reform and Labour are less prepared, but not by much. Since January, Labour HQ has prepped two parallel “grids” of announcements, one premised on a summer election and another for the autumn.
Labour aides are worried that too little has been signed off for the manifesto and that preparations for the early days of government are not complete. At least 100 candidates have still not been selected. But none of these anxieties override the pure excitement that most Labour activists feel to get started.
Reform will be further behind in its preparations – and that could limit the number of Tory losses in seats where a strong Reform showing might let Labour snatch the win. But the risk of a summer poll is that it gives Nigel Farage more flexibility to be involved, rather than making money across the Atlantic during the US election.
And what of the obvious downsides? Figures show that the Rwanda scheme is not deterring small boat crossings, which are at record levels and expected to rise further in the warmer months. Prisons are crammed full and police have been told to make fewer arrests. Cheerful news about lower inflation seems farcical to many, with prices up 23% since the start of 2021.
Perhaps the most compelling reason to call a general election is that the sooner these multiple crises become Starmer’s atrocious inheritance, the more Conservative MPs there will be to sit on the opposition benches.