FROM WHEELBARROWS TO MACBETH – BEHAVIOUR MODELLING FOR PUBLISHERS - MARTIN GOODSON & EMMA MARTIN

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Martin is VP of Data Science at Skimlinks, leading on large-scale machine learning for natural language processing and the modelling of consumer behaviour. He previously working as a statistician at the University of Oxford, where he conducted research into the genetics of personality. As head of research at Qubit, he also built predictive models of behaviour for online personalisation. Emma is the Commercial Data Manager for the Evening Standard, Independent, i100 and London Live websites. This summer the team won the AOP award for Best Use of Data for their innovative approach to using data-insight to shape commercial campaigns. Prior to ESI, Emma worked at some of the largest international media owners, including Yahoo! and the commercial arm of the BBC; providing data insights to inform, execute and evaluate advertising campaigns for global clients.

From Wheelbarrows to Macbeth –
Behaviour Modelling for Publishers
Martin Goodson(Skimlinks)/Emma Martin (ESI Media)

Skimlinks statsA Common Approach to Targeting Ads
• Tag pages on your ‘Camera Lens’ forum
• Show ads for camera lenses to anyone who visits a page tagged with
‘Camera Lens’
• Expensive and inaccurate

FROM WHEELBARROWS TO MACBETH – BEHAVIOUR MODELLING FOR PUBLISHERS - MARTIN GOODSON & EMMA MARTIN

Datastore
Build Daily
profiles
Intermediate Data
Structure (parquet)
Events (1 TB)
Daily Profiles
1.8 GB
Build Monthly
profiles
Generate Audience SegmentsCustomers
Monthly Aggregate
40 GB
The Pipeline

Building a Model: Women’s Bags
Product visit: Accessories - Women’s Bags
Interest: Accessories - Women’s Bags
Interest: Media/Entertainment – Celebrity Gossip
Interest: Food/Cooking
Page Impression: handbagblogsite.com
Page Impression: contentsite.com/women

Building a Model: Theatre Tickets
Product Visit: Theatre Tickets
Interest: Art/Culture
Interest: Gardening Equipment
Page Impression: editorialsite.co.uk/culture

Building a Model: Motorbike Accessories
Product Visit: Automotive - Motorbike Accessories
Page Impression: editorialsite.com/autos
Page Impression: hondarebelblog.com
Page Impression: www.motorcycleforumsite.net
Page Impression: editorialsite.com/science
Page Impression: editorialsite.com.com/divorce
Page Impression: Notebookforumsite.com

Testing Model Performance
Tech Fashion Toys
Toys 1 0 100
Fashion 2 100 3
Tech 100 1 1
Number of clicks in
the following month
Segment names

Testing Model Performance
Tech Fashion Toys
Toys 1 0 100
Fashion 2 100 3
Tech 100 1 1
Want high values
on the diagonal
Number of clicks in
the following month
Segment names

Recommendations: Barkbox.com
Product sold: High end gifts for Dogs
Segment Ratio
Pet Supplies 697.5
Specialist Food 59.59
Children’s Toys 15.25
Beauty Products 9.51
Health Foods/vitamins 3.45
Gourmet Food 4.18
Men’s Fashion 2.05
Cosmetics 3.04
Business & Finance 1.78
Education Careers 1.93

Recommendations: Petmountain.com
Product sold: Pets Supplies sold in volume
Segment Ratio
Pet Supplies 46.29
Grocery 4.2
DIY Home Improvement 3.3

Summary
Publisher data is a powerful tool for targeting online ads:
Create models to predict user intent
Validate model prediction
Recommend the right models for a specific campaign

ESI’s Love Affair with Data
At ESI, we believe in the power of our data. By utilising it effectively we can…
• Increase understanding of our users by mapping their journeys
• Improve consumer interaction with our brands by;
- offering a personalised experience on web, mobile and email
- serving more relevant, useful & engaging advertising
• Help our advertising partners speak to consumers in the most appropriate tone, at the right time
and in a fitting context

Audience Targeting
FIRST PARTY DATA
Browsing behaviour, content shared or liked, search terms
Registered user data; gender, age, postcode, interests, likes
+
SECOND PARTY DATA
eCommerce / advertiser data; previous purchase history
+
THIRD PARTY DATA
Intent or interest data, purchase histories, demographics, psychological types

Not all third party data is equal
Accuracy Reach Versatility

The Media Owner’s View
Accuracy Reach Versatility

Title: Open Sans 100 px
• Subtitle: Open Sans 48 px

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FROM WHEELBARROWS TO MACBETH – BEHAVIOUR MODELLING FOR PUBLISHERS - MARTIN GOODSON & EMMA MARTIN