Cultivated meat cost curve.pdf
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What are the cost drivers of cultivated meat and what is the current progress toward addressing them?
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Cultivated meat cost curve.pdf
- 1. Cultivated meat: moving down the cost curve Elliot Swartz, Ph.D. Lead Scientist, Cultivated Meat @elliotswartz November 29, 2022
- 2. Agenda 2 3 An introduction to cultivated meat Cost drivers of cultivated meat: media and infrastructure Questions 2 1
- 3. The Good Food Institute Science and Technology Advancing foundational, open-access research in alternative proteins and creating a thriving research and training ecosystem around these game-changing fields. Corporate Engagement Partnering with companies and investors across the globe to drive investment, accelerate innovation, and scale the supply chain—all faster than market forces alone would allow. Policy Advocating for fair policy and public research funding for alternative proteins. United States Brazil India Europe Asia Pacific Israel GFI is a 501(c)(3)nonprofit developing the roadmap for a sustainable, secure, and just protein supply. We focus on three key areas of work: GFI officially earned GuideStar's 2019, 2020, and 2021 Platinum Seal of Transparency—obtained by less than 1% of nonprofits—reflecting our commitment to maximum impact, efficiency, and inclusion. 175+ staff in 6 regions
- 4. An introduction to cultivated meat
- 5. 5 Cultivated meat Cultivated meat is genuine animal meat or seafood that can replicate the sensory and nutritional profile of conventionally produced meat because it’s comprised of the same cell types that can be arranged in the same or similar three-dimensional structure as animal muscle tissue. Images provided by Wild Type, Avant Meats, New Age Meats, Shiok Meats (CC BY 4.0), and BlueNalu (CC BY-NC-4.0). “We did not identify any properties of the cells as described that would render them different from other animal cells with respect to safety for food use.” -U.S. FDA evaluation of UPSIDE Foods’ cultivated chicken
- 6. Cultivated meat production process Phase 2: Tissue Perfusion Phase 1: Cell proliferation CELL LINE DERIVATION A small sample of cells is obtained from an animal. Medium Recycling The cells are added to a bioreactor along with cell culture media, which causes the cells to proliferate. CELL STARTER CULTURE Scaffolding Final Product CELLS AT MATURATION Primarily muscle, fat, and connective tissue. Fat Cell Muscle Cell Fibroblast Cell A change in culture conditions pushes the cells to differentiate into muscle, fat, and connective tissue.
- 7. Cultivated meat entering the market Company Stated capacity (US tons/year)* Source Wild Type 25-100 1 Future Meat 190 2 BlueNalu 5-12.5 3 UPSIDE Foods 25-200 4 Biotech Foods (majority control by JBS) 1100 5 Source: UPSIDE Foods pilot production facility, 2021 * capacity may refer to final product weight, not cultivated animal cell weight ● Over 150 dedicated CM companies globally ○ ~15 to 20 companies with operational pre-pilot or pilot-scale facilities by end of 2022
- 8. UPSIDE Foods receives clearance in the U.S. ● On Nov. 16th, UPSIDE Foods became the first company to complete the FDA pre-market consultation for its cultivated chicken ● FDA released its own scientific memo that summarizes the evaluation ● UPSIDE’s own safety assessment is also included in public records FDA pre-market consultation of UPSIDE Foods Summary of key information
- 9. By 2030, McKinsey estimates that under high growth scenarios, cultivated meat could account for up to 2.1 million metric tons (MMT), making it a $25B market. This is ~0.56% of global meat demand (assuming 375 MMT by 2030). Cultivated meat growth estimates
- 10. Cost drivers of cultivated meat
- 11. 11 The production costs of cultivated meat Source: CE Delft Techno-Economic Assessment (2021) Webinar: The costs and environmental impacts of cultivated meat Policy recommendations Technical recommendations Growth media is the current cost driver Infrastructure will be a long-term cost driver Maximizing process efficiency is needed to get into commodity cost ranges Scaled up production of cultivated meat could result in costs that are competitive with some forms of conventional meat and seafood by the year 2030.
- 12. How to think about cost drivers Cell culture media Infrastructure Other Growth factors Amino acids Buildings Bioreactors Labor Utilities
- 14. 14 What drives cell culture media costs? Source: Specht, L., 2019. https://gfi.org/resource/analyzing-cell-culture-medium-costs/ If growth factors produced for the pharmaceutical sector were used in cultivated meat production, they would account for 99% of costs at scale.
- 15. Food-grade cell culture media can cost >99% less than pharmaceutical-grade media $40.94 $14.54 $4.71 $3.74 $0.85 $0.35 $0.24 Price points below $1.00/L appear to be tractable Source: Specht, L., 2019. https://gfi.org/resource/analyzing-cell-culture-medium-costs/ Source: Mosa Meat
- 16. Growth factors To be suitable for use in a cost-competitive cultivated meat industry, growth factors should cost between $10/kg and $100,000/kg, depending on the quantity used and thus the scale at which they are produced Puetz & Wurm, 2019 Existing technology can already achieve these cost profiles. Other technologies in development can also get there.
- 17. Growth factors Conclusion: time, not technology is the limiting factor when it comes to reducing growth factor costs Not all growth factors are used equally Sourcing certain growth factors from plants can save on costs and reduce the amount of new infrastructure required for recombinant production Stout, 2022
- 18. Other media ingredients: amino acids The bulk of cellular biomass is made from amino acids Facility 1 Facility 2 Humbird, 2021
- 19. 19 Lowering costs of amino acids Source: Humbird, 2021 Today, amino acids used to feed cells come primarily from individual fermentation processes In the future, we think amino acids will come primarily from plants, algae, or other organisms Example: soybean hydrolysate contains a similar essential amino acid profile as popular cell culture media Facility 1 Facility 2 Cost if plant hydrolysates are used $3.10 $4.25
- 20. Progress on lowering the cost of amino acids What we know: cells can be successfully grown in media that incorporates crude amino acids What we don’t know: • Biology: can an entire medium formulation be based on crude amino acids? • Supply chain: If so, how should those amino acids be sourced? The Good Food Conference, 2021 Conclusion: time and, to a lesser extent, technology are limiting factors when it comes to reducing amino acid costs
- 21. Other factors influencing media costs Highly efficient cell metabolism is a necessity to achieve cost-competitive cultivated meat. • It’s also a major influence on the environmental impact of production. Media recycling can reduce costs and limit waste.
- 22. Infrastructure
- 23. New infrastructure: buildings “Building the infrastructure to make more meat requires a significant amount of capital. The kind of infrastructure we need is not available on the planet.” -Josh Tetrick CEO, Eat Just Size range of current global pharmaceutical capacity = 10 million liters of capacity to to Capacity range needed for 1.5 MMT of cultivated meat (~0.4% of 2030 market) is about 22x that of the current global pharmaceutical industry
- 24. New infrastructure: buildings Facility 1 Facility 2 Humbird, 2021 Major cost considerations: ● Engineering and construction costs ● Large amount of clean room infrastructure assumed* Total capital investment is $325M (facility 1) to $663M (facility 2) *Differing opinions for this assumption
- 25. New infrastructure: buildings The cost of a 10,000 ton annual production facility is estimated at $450M (-20% to +40%). Source: CE Delft Techno-Economic Assessment (2021) Webinar: The costs and environmental impacts of cultivated meat Policy recommendations Technical recommendations
- 26. New infrastructure: buildings These facilities are likely to cost hundreds of millions of dollars
- 27. Negulescu, 2022; Humbird, 2021 Estimated cost of a 20 m3 stirred-tank bioreactor made of pharma-grade 316L stainless steel: $1.5M Estimated cost of a 42 m3 stirred-tank bioreactor made of food-grade 304 stainless steel: $902k Estimated cost of a 210 m3 stirred-tank bioreactor made of food-grade 304 stainless steel: $2.38M Estimated cost of a 260 m3 air-lift bioreactor made of food-grade 304 stainless steel: $312k Bioreactors: type, size, and material matters
- 28. Bioreactors: scale-up risks In June, 2022, Eat Just announced an exclusive partnership with engineering firm ABEC to build ten 250,000 liter bioreactors With larger size comes larger risk ● Technical: animal cells have never been grown at such large scales. ● Operational: larger vessels increase production time and surface area, which increases opportunity for contamination and loss of batches. Because of this, some believe “scale-out” at a certain “sweet spot” will best be able to balance risk vs. reward. The sweet spot has yet to be determined.
- 29. Process intensification lowers CAPEX by reducing the number of bioreactors and the number of buildings Source: CE Delft Techno-Economic Assessment (2021) Webinar: The costs and environmental impacts of cultivated meat More efficient production processes means fewer bioreactors needed in the facility and fewer personnel to operate and maintain the equipment. STAFF 200 130 CAPEX $450M $250M More efficient production (shorter production times, increased cell densities, reduced media costs) reduces the overall cost burden for cultivated meat manufacturers. Process intensification for antibody production in the pharmaceutical industry has improved 100-200x since 1985
- 30. Other factors influencing infrastructure costs Bioreactor learning curves Government incentives and other financing (taxes, loans, financing structure) Conclusion: time and technology are limiting factors when it comes to reducing infrastructure costs.
- 31. Conclusions Media and infrastructure drive the cost of cultivated meat production • Reducing media costs is tractable and expected to occur on shorter timescales • Reducing infrastructure costs is more uncertain and expected to occur on longer timescales No one knows how much it costs to produce cultivated meat at scale • Current information suggests it can likely compete on costs with premium meat products using today’s technology • Blending cultivated meat with plant-based ingredients is a significant opportunity to products that compete with commodity meats • New technology development will play a critical role in lowering costs