Series Preview: The Rockies have won 7 in a row

The last time I wrote about the San Francisco Giants facing a team that had been on a long losing streak (the Reds), I thought what most of you thought: the Giants are gonna lose because that’s a long streak that’s due to end. Well, with the Colorado Rockies visiting this weekend and on a 7-game winning streak, rest assured I feel the Giants are due to win.

Yes, you can’t predict baseball and yes, nobody around here believes me when I’m even remotely positive about the Giants chances, but here I feel pretty good about the Giants winning at least one game in this three-game series. I’d like to believe that the Giants are much better than the Rockies and that they were able to win one game against the Dodgers, a team they have no business being on the same field as, at least goes to show that they’re not completely terrible.

The Rockies are supposed to be the worst team in the division and despite their 7-game winning streak, they basically are. The Giants are better. Will that matter? Probably! The Giants are 40-14 against the Rockies going back to 2021. The Rockies are 5-20 at Oracle Park at that same span, last having won a series in San Francisco back in June 2022.

It’s true that the Rockies’ winning streak has come thanks to a pair of sweeps after winning the last game of their series against the Giants: in Colorado against the Rangers and in San Diego against the Padres. But that sweep raised their road record to 6-16. Still, I suppose outscoring the Padres 19-7 at Petco is noteworthy. They also outscored the Rangers 15-6. So, I can see why the Giants winning a game — let alone the series — might not be a foregone conclusion.

On the other hand, Kyle Harrison did shut this lineup out for 7 innings just 10 days ago. The Giants’ lineup did not feature Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos. If you’re fearful of the Rockies hitting Harrison harder because not much time will have passed since they last saw him, the Giants’ different lineup could be an equalizer, even if the Rockies have pitched better of late. To wit: their 2.97 team ERA since May 1st is 7th in MLB (5th in the NL). Meanwhile, the Giants have a 4.81 team ERA over the past two and a half weeks (26th in MLB).

Hopefully, everybody has properly adjusted their expectations of the team after that brief pre-Opening Day surge of extreme optimism. The Giants were always going to be a $215 million third Wild Card contender and, well, despite their underwhelming record and despite a negative run differential — which for any other team you would consider to be a death knell for even at this point in the season but you don’t do for the Giants because they’re your team — that’s exactly what they are today.

That means looking bad against the good teams and good against the bad teams. Though, it would be a little funny if the Rockies were starting to get good.

Series details

Who: Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco, California
When: Friday (7:15pm PT), Saturday (1:05pm PT), and Sunday (1:05pm PT)
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcast (Friday)

Projected starters

Friday: Ryan Feltner vs. Kyle Harrison
Saturday: Ty Blach vs. Jordan Hicks
Sunday: Dakota Hudson vs. TBD

Where they stand

Rockies, 15-28 (5th in NL West), 172 RS / 227 RA, Last 10 games: 7-3
Giants, 20-25 (4th in NL West), 169 RS / 215 RA, Last 10 games: 5-5

Rockies to watch

Ezequiel Tovar: He’s on a 9-game hitting streak which began in that Giants series a week and a half ago. Over the span, the Rockies have gone 7-2 and his triple slash is .333/.350/.641 (.991 OPS) with4 doubles, a triple, and 2 home runs but with just 1 walk against 11 strikeouts. The batted ball data is unexciting, but he’s gotten resutlts. And it’s not like the Giants fully shut him down. He’s been a plus defender at shortstop, too, and when it comes to Rockies defenders, I am always on high alert for the next Troy Tulowitzki or Nolan Arenado.

Brenton Doyle: The 26-year old outfielder has been equally impressive during the Rockies’ win streak. Since going 0-for-4 against the Giants in game one of that series, he’s 9-for-27 with 2 doubles, a triple, and 2 home runs along with 5 walks and just 6 strikeouts (.333/.438/.704). And he’s 4-for-4 in stolen bases. The centerfielder BRENTON is not to be confused with second baseman BRENDAN Rodgers (.291/.328/.309 in May).

Ty Blach: It’s surprising to me that he’s still only 33 years old because it feels like he pitched for the Giants decades ago. He is, effectively, the prototypical Rockies starter in 2024, capably filling in for the injured Kyle Freeland with a 3.00 ERA (2.84 FIP). He’s made three appearances in May (starting most recently) and has allowed just 2 earned runs in 12 innings (but also 14 hits and a walk while striking out only 6). He reflects the entire Rockies staff: no strikeouts and lots of groundballs. His 46% groundball rate is a little bit less than the team’s 50% that they’ve generated in May and his 3.5 K/9 is nearly half of the team’s 6.7 K/9 in May, but a 1.5 BB/9 is really something, considering Colorado’s team 4.1 BB/9 is the 4th-worst in MLB (just behind the Giants, Rangers, and Mets) in the month of May.

Giants to watch

Marco Luciano: I just want to see if he’ll play. Casey Schmitt has been inert at the plate.

Heliot Ramos: He’s on a Tovarian hot streak on this callup: .310/.333/.379 and despite looking like he’s figured something out in terms of pitch recognition, he has just 1 walk against 11 strikeouts. He is hitting the ball in the air, though, with just a 38.9% groundball rate. The Rockies don’t strike out a lot of dudes, but they do walk a lot of guys and get a lot of groundballs.

Taylor Rogers: Was tempted to put Luis Matos here, but just for a moment, I want to consider the team’s high-priced reliever. He’s given up runs in two out of his last three appearances, even has a 4.50 ERA in May (7 appearances, 6 IP). You’d think that’d mean he’s toast. BUT! He’s struck out 12 and walked only 1 while allowing 0 home runs and just 3 earned runs (4 total). He has a 0.12 FIP. He ended April with a 3.86 ERA on a 6.65 FIP. Why the high variability? I’d say it’s the Giants’ defense, which has been a net negative so far this season, although not tremendously awful (-3.4 Defensive Runs Above Average is squarely in the middle of the league - 15th).

One thing he has been at this point of the year is a net negative in terms of the team’s win probability. He’s a reliever, so this stat should always be in a state of flux, but just to give you an idea of why something feels off about him:

Win Probability Added by year:

2016: +0.9
2017: +0.6
2018: +2.6
2019: +3.4
2020: -1.2
2021: +0.7
2022: -1.6
2023: +1.0
2024: -0.6

When he’s bad, he’s obviously bad in higher leverage situations. You see that 2022 was a turning point when he was traded. He managed to salvage some value last year with the Giants, but he’s trending back towards his 2022 self already.

While it’s true he was off to a worse start last year, consider the following: the Giants have actually used him in lower leverage situations, in fact, slightly below average leverage situations this season (0.97 aLI) versus last year (1.15) and he’s been much, much worse by result: -0.556 Win Probability Added (which I rounded up to -0.6 for the above list) in 2024 versus -0.156 Win Probability Added last season. He’s getting more swing and miss, but when hitters have connected, he’s been hit hard.

Prediction time