The Ripple Effects of Extending Kroos and Modric’s Contracts: Projecting Game-Time Allocation

It is hard to imagine this Real Madrid team without at least one of Kroos or Modric. Over the last few weeks, reports have seesawed back and forth: both will leave, one will stay, and now the latest suggestions from MARCA are that both will be offered a one-year renewal and are expected to accept. Two of the greatest central midfielders in football history may be extending their legacy for another year – both are more than capable of competing at the top level for an additional season.

Many are rightly celebrating the potential renewals, but it then begs the question: who goes from this Real Madrid team with the impending arrival of Kylian Mbappe and Endrick? Are there enough minutes to meet the demands of each highly talented individual on this squad? With the new Champions league format (2 extra group games), the potential for a European Super Cup match, the Club World Cup (potential for a total of 7 games), and coming off the back of a summer with the European Championships and the Copa America, there may be suffcient minutes to go around.

Assuming those additional competitions are part of the schedule next season (knock on wood), there are roughly 58,500 outfield minutes to disperse among the team. Removing this outlier season where Luis Enrique has sat Mbappe on the bench in order to prepare his PSG team for life post the French captain, Mbappe has historically averaged around 3,800 minutes a season from 2021-2023. Endrick’s development will undoubtedly be prioritized, and the player may have a year similar to Vinicius and Rodrygo in their debut season, playing around 1,800 minutes. Then there is the case of Arda Guler; all indications from both player and club are that the teenage Turk will be a part of the first-team squad again next season. He will also be expecting a material increase in minutes from his 350 this season, which were mostly due to injury. If Guler also is expected to play 1,500 additional minutes, that means there are now over 7,000 minutes to account for in the new season.

With arrivals, there are always assumed outgoings. As of today, the highest probable departures are Nacho (MLS) and Ceballos (linked to Atleti). Nacho’s minutes will likely be gobbled up by the return to fitness of Eder Militao, David Alaba, and even the occasional Tchouameni center-back performance. There is also expecatation that a fourth center back will arrive to replace Nacho — one of Rafa Marin or Leny Yoro. The other probable departure, Dani Ceballos, even assuming he amasses 90 more minutes over the next three games, has just 859 minutes to his name.

The new competitions and additional games add about 6,000 available minutes next season. Those additional minutes help to fill the Mbappe-Endrick-Guler gap. Below is a look at the allocation of minutes today, with three games still to be played:

The elephant in the room are the renewals of Modric and Kroos. The Croatian will be 39 years old next season, and the German will be 35 years old, with the latter coming off a summer at the European Championships. Let’s assume the German plays under 3,000 minutes and has 800 minutes docked from his tank this season, while Modric plays even less from the start with his minutes stripped down another 500 from his limited role this season. That gives Real Madrid 1,300 minutes to add to their pile.

The next phase to look at is the heavy lifters this year: Fede Valverde, Toni Rudiger, and Rodrygo Goes. All three will likely see a reduction in game time, particularly Rodrygo. Strip out ~1,500 minutes from their collective time on the field this season and add that to the bank.

Where do we land? Ceballos (860 mins), Kroos and Modric reduction (1,300 mins), and the heavy lifter reduction (1,500 mins) brings Madrid’s available minutes to 3,660 minutes. With Mbappe, Endrick, and Guler minutes pushing near 7,000 and taking that sum from the additional games on the calendar, there still leaves opportunity for the likes of Brahim Diaz and Joselu. Those two may be able to fetch similar minutes as the past season given the the re-allocation.

Below is a realistic look at a potential minutes dispersion:

The key to the above is the squad management. Do sporting objectives, media pressure, and injuries/suspension force a rapid re-allocation and burn out of key starters? Does Modric accept an even lesser role? Does Arda Guler’s talent warrant more minutes? Has Brahim not earned a bigger role? In a perfect world, Ancelotti can hit the above metrics and keep everybody happy, but so rarely does squad planning go to plan, just ask the Italian about this past season. Ultimately, the club may feel there is not enough room for a Joselu who turns 35-years-old next season despite his unique profile. Or they decide to cash-in on a Brahim given his status and the lack of additonal minutes. Strategic decisions will be made this summer but on the surface level, there appears to be enough minutes to meet the squad’s demands.