The struggling Texas Rangers offense

The Texas Rangers lost to the Cleveland Guardians last night by a score of 7-0. I didn’t put up a Thoughts post about the game because I didn’t want to think about the game, and I doubt many of y’all wanted to, either.

But if I had done one, I would have probably focused on the ongoing malaise that the offense appears to be going through. Texas was shut out on Monday for the fourth time this season. That sounds like an awful lot, and feels like an awful lot, though it should be noted that the Rangers were shut out 11 times in 2023, when they had, you may remember, one of the best offenses in baseball.

But still, this is a trend of late. Texas has scored six runs in their last four games, all losses. In the month of May, they have played 13 games, and scored four or fewer runs in nine of them. and three or fewer runs in seven games. That’s a problem.

Texas is first in the American League in runs scored (although, weirdly, there are five National League teams with more runs scored), though they are fifth in the A.L. in runs per game. That’s due in part to overperforming with runners in scoring position — they are slashing .306/.396/.460 in those situations, compared to .235/.292/.373 with no one on. But still, the offense as a whole over the course of the season hasn’t been bad, as evidenced by the team wRC+ of 101 and OPS+ of 103.

That’s especially noticeable when we compare 2024 to 2023. The 2023 team slashed .263/.337/.452, while the 2024 team is slashing .253/.321/.388. Now, offense is down for the league as a whole in 2024 — MLB overall is slashing .240/.312/.386 this season, compared to .248/.320/.414 last year — which makes the relative drop lower than the absolute drop year over year.

What jumps out at me in looking at the numbers, though, is where the relative drop is occurring. In certain areas, the Rangers have not fallen off much, relative to the rest of the American League. Texas led the majors in hits, walks, average and OBP in 2023. This year, they are first in hits, fourth in walks, second in average and third in OBP. When it comes to getting hits and getting on base, the Rangers are still among the league leaders.

Its in the power numbers where we see the big difference from 2023. The Rangers led the league in slugging and homers in 2024 and were second in doubles. This year, Texas is 9th in home runs and slugging and tenth in doubles. The Rangers were first in the American League ISO in 2023, and are 12th in ISO this season. They’ve gone from being a team that was among the best in the league in both getting on base and hitting for power to being a team that is really good at getting on base, but below average at hitting for power.

There’s a number of factors we can point to here. Corey Seager, of course, has gotten off to a poor start to the year. Nathaniel Lowe was out for the first part of the year, and his replacements didn’t hit while he was out. Josh Jung has missed most of the year.

That being said, other than Corey Seager, I don’t know that there’s any position player on the team that you look at and say, this performance was completely unexpected. And that is what is maybe most worrisome going forward for this team.

Let’s look at Adolis Garcia, for example. Adolis is slashing .247/.297/.449, with 50 Ks against just 11 walks, good for a 111 OPS+. One can argue that he’s just struggling right now, that he hit .245/.328/.508 last year (a 125 OPS+) and improved his eye at the plate, and it is just a matter of him getting going again.

And that may be true. But the flip side is that Garcia’s line this year looks an awful lot like his .243/.286/.454 slash line as a rookie, and his .250/.300/.456 slash line in 2022. His K rate this year is a lot closer to the 5+ Ks per walk he put up in 2021-22 than the 2.7 Ks per walk he put up in 2023. It isn’t out of the question that 2023 was an outlier year for Garcia, rather than a new normal — particularly given Garcia is 31 years old.

One can also point to Josh Jung being on the injured list and Wyatt Langford not hitting and Evan Carter being awful against lefties and now dealing with back issues. However, Josh Jung being on the injured list, Wyatt Langford struggling to adjust to major league pitching, and Evan Carter not hitting lefties and having injury issues are three things that were, coming into the season, foreseeable possibilities. I don’t think any of us are (or should be surprised) about any of those things.

And as far as Jung’s absence impacting the offense, well, his replacement Josh Smith is slashing .273/.376/.430 right now. He has the second highest OPS on the team and is leading the team in doubles. He has the third highest slugging percentage on the team. Josh Jung being healthy probably doesn’t have as much of an impact on the team’s offensive performance over the first month and a half as it would first appear.

Big picture, the Rangers’ offense isn’t as bad as it has looked the last couple of weeks, isn’t as punchless as it looked on this recent road trip. They’ll continue to get on base at a good clip, and I expect they’ll hit for a little more power going forward. Corey Seager has been hitting the ball better than the raw numbers indicate, and he’ll get going. Wyatt Langford will be back, and likely do better than the 588 OPS he’s put up to date.

But we may need to adjust our expectations in regards to this offense in 2024. It has not been the juggernaut that destroyed pitchers in 2023, and it likely isn’t going to be. It should be a good offense, an above-average offense, albeit one that goes through rough patches, like every team does.

But don’t expect this team to lead the league in every category, across the board, like it did in 2023.