Von der Leyen’s silence sparks EU election ‘proxy war’ in Italy

The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) is still waiting for current EU Commission chief Von der Leyen to decide whether she wants to re-run for the top job after the 2024 EU elections. Her silence has sparked a hot debate on the right front of the political spectrum regarding the future political orientation of Europe’s largest family.

In Italy, it even caused turmoil in the coalition government, while in Madrid, the socialist Spanish prime minister backed a second mandate for von der Leyen.

The EPP has not yet announced the date of its congress to elect its “spitzenkandidat” ahead of the EU elections next June.

According to the Spitzenkandidat system, if the leading candidate of a European political family wins the EU elections and gets the majority in the European Parliament, they take over the presidency of the European Commission.

However, while former Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker was nominated under the Spitzenkandidat system as the ‘top candidate’ of the European People’s Party (EPP), his successor, Ursula von der Leyen, was selected by EU leaders behind closed doors.

The EPP has not yet announced the date of its congress, allegedly because von der Leyen has not expressed whether she wants to re-run.

A well-informed EPP source told EURACTIV that von der Leyen does not have to be “proposed” by someone to be the spitzenkandidat but just say whether she wants a second mandate.

“We are in internal consultation about the electoral congress”, the EPP source said.

Regarding potential dates, rumours in Brussels suggested that it may occur in mid-April or the beginning of May. However, the EPP source noted, “probably it’s going to take place earlier”.

But von der Leyen’s inexplicable delay has caused tensions on the right front, with rumours mounting in Brussels and Europe’s capitals.

The end of the “grand coalition” between the socialists and the EPP has left a political vacuum that needs to be filled to achieve a majority in the next EU Parliament.

The EPP’s chief Manfred Weber has already expressed his will to collaborate with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). Some EPP politicians, such as Italy’s Antonio Tajani, supported this move, while others, such as the German right parties, have ruled it out.

Rumours in Brussels suggest a silent war between Weber and von der Leyen over the EPP’s political orientation. Both take different approaches, with Weber turning to the right while von der Leyen pushing for a more centrist approach.

A recent example of the confrontation was climate change.

“Climate change is a fact. We have an idea, we have a vision on how to address it and tackle the difficulties […] You can have prosperity while protecting nature and the environment”, von der Leyen said, sending a message to Weber’s EPP, which recently voted against the Nature Restoration Law in the European Parliament together with nationalist conservative ECR and far-right ID.

The big question is whether the EPP – expected to rank first – will form a post-election coalition with the conservatives (ECR) and liberals (Renew), or it will go further right, forging alliances with the far right.

Another scenario is that von der Leyen winks at the liberal faction of the EPP to follow a more centrist approach closer to the socialists and liberals.

“We, the democratic groups in the centre, must show that we have a clear idea of how we want to deal with change”, von der Leyen said during a discussion with Spanish socialist PM Pedro Sanchez on Tuesday.

During an informal discussion with journalists, Sánchez also backed a second mandate for von der Leyen, praising her work as a Commission chief.

Italy’s ‘proxy war’

The Brussels battle has been transferred to Italy in the form of a “proxy war”, as the parties of the coalition government are divided over the matter.

The Italian government consists of conservative Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (ECR), centre-right Forza Italia (EPP) and far-right Matteo Salvini’s League (ID).

The alliance on the horizon between the EPP and ECR already upset many, but Salvini’s proposal to include his EU family (ID) – such as Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National and Germany’s Alternativ für Deutschland (Afd) in the framework – essentially replicating the Italian government model – was the last straw.

Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani – deputy PM and leader of Forza Italia – has explained that “Matteo Salvini will never be the problem”, but Afd and Le Pen certainly are.

For its part, the League warns its government allies against the possible reconfiguration of the “Ursula majority”, composed of the EPP, the socialists (S&D) and the liberals (Renew).

“Does our friend Tajani really prefer to continue governing with Partito Democratico, socialists and Macron? The League is working to change the majority in Europe and give birth, at last, to a united centre-right project, capable of giving concrete answers to citizens after years of misgovernment by the Left”, wrote in a note Marco Zanni – president of the ID group – and Marco Campomenosi – head of the League’s delegation to the European Parliament.

“We refuse to think that someone who calls himself ‘centre-right’ could prefer Macron and the left to Le Pen”, they added.

The League also called in Macron, founder of the Renew group and historically disliked by Giorgia Meloni. However, to date, Meloni has not ruled out an alliance with Renew, which does not want to hear of a coalition with the Conservatives.

In an interview with EURACTIV, MEP Sandro Gozi (Renew) totally ruled out a possible alliance with ECR and ID. To the “phantom alliances between EPP, ECR and Liberals, maybe even involving pieces of ID”, Renew says, “a strong and clear no”.

“We have already put it in writing, it is a strong political commitment, and we will reiterate it throughout our election campaign: we have another vision of Europe”, Gozi explained.

According to La Repubblica, a von der Leyen second mandate would make a deal with the far-right ID “impossible”.

The journal suggested that Meloni is behind Tajani’s diktat, determined not to leave room in Europe for government ally Salvini and inclined to the idea of a “progressive osmosis” between Brothers of Italy (ECR) and Forza Italia (EPP).

Salvini said on Tuesday that he would like the centre-right model of government in Italy “extended to Europe”.

“Without excluding anyone a priori, without saying no to anyone, otherwise there will be yet another majority with the left, with the socialists, with Macron”, the minister explained.

“It is simply an idea of Europe that coincides with what the Italian government is doing. Centre-right in Italy, centre-right in Europe. I wonder how someone from the centre-right can prefer the socialists”, he concluded.

Salvini’s comments were criticised by Paolo Barelli, Forza Italia’s group leader in the Chamber of Deputies.

“Salvini wants to convert Le Pen to pro-Europeanism. A difficult path, which will take many months”, he said.

Last but not least, rumours in Brussels suggest that some EU leaders may propose Weber take the Commission’s top job in case there is disagreement over Von der Leyen at the EU Council.

“At the end of the day, the support in the EU Council matters the most”, a source familiar with the matter commented.

(Sarantis Michalopoulos | EURACTIV.com, Federica Pascale | EURACTIV.it, Max Griera | EURACTIV.com – Edited by Alice Taylor)

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