Deandre Ayton vs. Jusuf Nurkic: Who Got the Better of the Deal?

In the wake of trading Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks in the Summer of 2023, the Portland Trail Blazers made another huge deal, swapping center Jusuf Nurkic to the Phoenix Suns for Deandre Ayton. Now that both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, one Blazer’s Edge Reader wants us to re-examine the exchange. That’s the subject of today’s Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.

Dear Dave,

I’ve been interested in your take on the Deandre Ayton v Jusuf Nurkic topic that has popped up through much of the season. I remember in the early months, we all got nervous as Nurk appeared to be the perfect fit for the Suns while Ayton struggled. After the Allstar break Ayton grew into his role. Now Nurk slipped in the playoffs against Minnesota and he looks like a bad bet again. Which is true and what do you think? Which center is the better choice?

Ian

You’ve described popular reaction fairly accurately. In the first half of the year, Nurkic looked like a better option. His play was compact alongside three superstar teammates in Phoenix. Meanwhile Ayton had trouble gaining purchase in Portland even though his ceiling was theoretically higher and his role unbounded. But “compact” turned to “inadequate” for Nurkic while Ayton zoomed to a star-adjacent level with the Blazers, albeit only for a few weeks. The pendulum of popular support swung accordingly.

Let’s take a look at some of their stats and see if we can’t find a more objective position.

Games Played— Nurkic: 76 Ayton: 55

Minutes Played— Nurkic: 2078 Ayton: 1784

Points Per Game/36 Minutes— Nurkic: 10.9/14.4 Ayton: 16.7/18.6

Rebounds Per Game/36— Nurkic: 11.0/14.5 Ayton: 11.1/12.3

Blocks Per Game/36— Nurkic: 1.1/1.4 Ayton: 0.8/0.8

Assist Per Game/36— Nurkic: 4.0/5.2 Ayton: 1.6/1.8

Turnovers Per Game/36— Nurkic: 2.3/3.0 Ayton: 1.8/2.0

Field Goal Percentage— Nurkic: 51.0% Ayton: 57.0%

Three-Point Percentage— Nurkic: 24.4% Ayton: 10.0%

Usage Rate— Nurkic: 19.1% Ayton: 21.1%

Looking at the numbers, only a few things differentiate the two. Nurkic played far more games, but only 300 more minutes overall...around 9 outings at Ayton’s per-game average. Ayton scored far better than Nurkic, but Nurk was just as good of a rebounder and exceeded Deandre on assists by a mile. Ayton was a superior percentage shooter but had less range than Nurkic.

Neither center defends that well, especially when pulled out on the perimeter. Both play inconsistently, engendering frustration accordingly.

There’s no smoking gun here. We’re talking different flavors of center, not different orders. If you need 20 points per game, Ayton is the better choice. If you want team play in a strong offense, it’s Nurkic.

Ranking the duo among their NBA peers is another way of looking at the issue. We don’t have to list every NBA center, just the ones we suspect are above or near Nurkic and Ayton in the pecking order.

Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Victor Wembanyama are in a class by themselves. No argument there.

Underneath that trio you have a layer of All-Star (or All-Something) centers, more acclaimed than either Ayton or Nurkic: Anthony Davis, Domantas Sabonis, Rudy Gobert, and Bam Adebayo.

Nurkic and Ayton fall into a third tier of centers: good, but not great. These include Nikola Vucevic, Alperen Sengun, Kristaps Porzingis, Jaren Jackson Jr., and (for now) Chet Holmgren.

I’m guessing 30 out of 30 teams would take Holmgren over Ayton or Nurkic, but let’s be charitable. The rankings leave Nurk and Deandre no better than the 8th and 9th best centers in the league, ranging all the way down to the 14th or 15th if they end up at the bottom of their tier. That’s not horrible, but it’s not stellar either. You’re not going to expect either of these guys to turn around franchise fortunes at this point. They don’t stand out that far, even playing the rarest position in the league.

That’s why the best answer to your question is probably, “Either, or neither. Take your pick.” There’s no reason to hate either of these players, but there’s no reason to plant their flag at the top of the hill.

The big difference, of course, is that Nurkic makes $18 million per year, Ayton $34 million. Portland is paying a premium for Ayton’s potential. But the Blazers need that more than the Suns do. It’s not like they’re making a major leap in the next season or two, so they can afford it.

In the end, both the Suns and Trail Blazers can find reasons to like their starting centers and be frustrated by them. We can debate all day which is better, but if you zoom out to a league level, each will have to show more before the debate finds relevance.

Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as we can!