Series Preview #15: Diamondbacks vs Tigers

I can’t write a preview of a series at Chase Field against the Tigers without including this:
(the tweet was last June 17th, so it’s not actually “this day in...”

All-time, the Dbacks and Tigers have hooked up on 40 occasions. The Dbacks own the series 23-17 and have outscored Detroit by 25 runs (189-164). The Dbacks are 11-9 at home and 12-8 in Detroit. The first series the two teams faced each other was the series in 2001 that Tony Womack hit the grand slam in. They played in each of the 2002-2005 seasons, including 6 times in 2005!

The most recent matchup came last June 9-11th, a sweep by the Dbacks. They outscored Detroit 23-11, in Detroit. Merrill Kelly had a quality start, Nelson finished an out away from that and Gallen gave up 5 runs. Corbin Carroll went 6-14, with 6 RBIs, but most of that was in one game.

Coming into play, the Tigers have a record of 21-22 and their pythag is the inverse of that. They have scored 168 runs, to 167 allowed. In the month of May, they are 4-9, after a 17-13 start to the year. In their last 10, they are 3-7 and are coming off a series loss to the Marlins. The Tigers have not scored a run since the 8th inning of Monday’s 6-5 win, 19 scoreless frames.

Game 1: May 17th, 6:40 AZ time

Dbacks starter Ryne Nelson (2-2, 6G 5.33 ERA/77ERA+, 1.697 WHIP) vs. Tarik Skubal (5-0, 8 G, 2.02 ERA/199 ERA+, 0.857 WHIP)

Ryne Nelson has made two starts since coming off the IL against the Padres and the Orioles. In those two starts he has given up 18 hits in 9.2 innings along with 7 earned runs and 2 of his 4 home runs allowed. He had had the best start of his season the start before he got injured, going 6 innings and giving up a run on 7 hits in a win against the Cardinals. As mentioned previously, Nelson started against the Tigers last June 10th at Comerica Park. He went 5.2ip, giving up no runs on 4 hits in a 5-0 Dback victory.

Tarik Skubal is a left handed pitcher, in his 5th season in MLB. He was originally drafted by the Dbacks in the 29th round in 2017, but obviously did not sign. The Tigers took him a year later in the 9th round. In August of 2022 he was placed on the IL with left arm fatigue. He would have flexor tendon surgery and miss the rest of that season and the first few months of 2023, debuting on July 4th.

Skubal started on Opening Day and is undoubtedly their ace. Last time out, against Houston, he got the win pitching 6+ and striking out 7 Astros. The start before that, he struck out 12 Yankees and allowed 2 earned runs in a no decision loss. The previous two starts against Kansas City and Tampa, he allowed a single run in a combined 13 innings, striking out 15. He has never faced the Dbacks’ team. They have their work cut out for them.
Game 2: May 18th, 5:10 AZ time

Zac Gallen (5-2 , 8 G 2.86 ERA/142 ERA+, 0.00 WHIP) vs. Jack Flaherty (0-3, 8 G, 3.88 ERA/104 ERA+, 1.114 WHIP)

Jack Flaherty is a right handed pitcher, and former Oriole and Cardinal. St. Louis selected him 1-34 in the 2014 draft. The Diamondbacks took Touki Toussaint at 1-16, and the Cardinals took Luke Weaver 1-27. Whatever happened to them? He was traded mid season last year from the Cards to the Orioles. Flaherty signed a one year deal this past off season with Detroit.

Flaherty has pitched 4 times at Chase Field. He is 0-1, with a 4.37 ERA with 29 strikeouts to 6 walks in 22+ innings pitched. He has surrendered 4 home runs. He has held the Dbacks to a .218 batting average. Most of the suckage was in his two appearances last year as an Cardinal and then as an Oriole.

Flaherty started 2019’s Snakepit Game of the Year, a 19 inning marathon that likely does not occur with today’s rules. The Dbacks won 3-2, and Flaherty had 11 strikeouts in his 7 innings of work. https://www.azsnakepit.com/2019/11/29/20988058/2019-snakepit-awards-game-of-the-year-9-24-the-never-ending-story

In Flaherty’s last two starts he had quality starts, but received losses in both games. Five earned runs in his last 12 innings to go along with 13 punchouts. On April 30th, facing his old team he struck out 14 Cardinals in 6.2 innings. The received a no decision in a 2-1 Tigers loss. Yay pitcher’s W/L...

Last time out against the Orioles, Gallen threw 6 innings and gave up 2 runs for the win. The start before that, in Cinncinati, he went 6 and gave up no runs on only 1 hit. Curiously, this is Gallen's first home start since April 14th against the Cardinals.

Game 3: May 19th, 1:10 AZ time

Jordan Montgomery (2-2, 5G, 4.76 ERA/86 ERA+, 1.412 WHIP) vs. Matt Manning (0-1, 4 G, 4.37 ERA/93 ERA+, 1.324 WHIP)

Manning was drafted 1-9 by the Tigers in the 2016 draft.
Matt Manning will be making his 5th start this season. Three of his four starts have been as a fill in type call up.

Manning was optioned to Triple–A Toledo to begin the 2024 season after Casey Mize and Reese Olson won the final rotation spots. Manning was activated on April 4 to start a game against the New York Mets as the 27th man in a doubleheader. He is did the same thing in a doubleheader against the Minnesota Twins on April 13. Manning was again activated on April 30 to pitch the second game of a doubleheader against the St. Louis Cardinals as the 27th man

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Manning#2024

His last start against the Marlins he pitched into the 6th inning and gave up 3 runs. He is evidently the son of former NBA player Rich Manning. He has not faced the DBacks as a team.

Montgomery was a late addition to the roster signing at the very end of spring training. He made his season debut on April 19th. He has gone into the 6th inning or more in 4 out of his 5 starts. The only game in which he didn’t, he gave up 6 runs in 3 innings to the Dodgers. Remove that game and his ERA drops to 3.22, if I am correct.

Offense

DH Mark Canha leads the team with 20 RBIs, he has 6 home runs. Other players to watch out for are Riley Green (9 HRs, 19 RBI .239/.353/.471) and Kerry Carpenter (5 HRs, 18 RBI .271/.326/.500). Spencer Torkelson, who went 1-1 in the 2020 draft, has 2 HRs and 16 RBI .220/.286/.340. Javier Baez leads the team with 6 stolen bases. Of course, we are also welcoming back Carson Kelly to Chase Field. He has a home run and 7 RBI.

For more insight, here is Jack’s series preview over on SI’s Inside the Dbacks
https://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/arizona-diamondbacks-analysis/looking-ahead-to-pitching-matchups-for-d-backs-and-tigers-this-weekend-01hy0wt22w6z

Conclusion

I say the Dbacks drop game 1. Game 2 may depend on which Gallen shows up, but I think with how Detroit has been of late we take that game. I say we take the series 2-1.