Conflict in Ukraine
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Europe and Eurasia
Significant
Worsening
Territorial Dispute
Recent Developments
While the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine transitioned to a stalemate after it first erupted in early 2014, shelling and skirmishes still regularly occur, including an escalation of violence in the spring of 2021.
In October 2021, Russia began moving troops and military equipment near the border with Ukraine, reigniting concerns over a potential invasion. Commercial satellite imagery and social media posts from November and December 2021 showed armor, missiles, and other heavy weaponry moving toward Ukraine with no official explanation. By December, more than one hundred thousand troops were in place near the border and U.S. intelligence officials warned that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
In mid-December 2021, the Russian foreign ministry issued a set of demands which included a ban on Ukraine entering the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and a reduction of NATO troops and military equipment in eastern Europe in order for its military forces to be withdrawn. The United States and other NATO allies rejected these demands and have warned Russia of retaliation if Ukraine is invaded, including economic sanctions, and other assistance has been deployed to Ukraine, including small arms and other defensive weaponry.
In early February, Biden ordered nearly three thousand U.S. troops to bordering NATO countries Poland and Romania. The Biden administration has said the deployment is intended to be temporary and that U.S. troops will not enter Ukraine. Satellite imagery showed the largest deployment of Russian troops to its border with Belarus since the end of the Cold War. Tensions remain high as negotiations between Russia and the United States and other European powers–including France and Germany–continue without any apparent progress toward a formal agreement.
Background
The crisis in Ukraine began with protests in the capital city of Kyiv in November 2013 against Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to reject a deal for greater economic integration with the European Union. After a violent crackdown by state security forces unintentionally drew an even greater number of protesters and escalated the conflict, President Yanukovych fled the country in February 2014.
In March 2014, Russian troops took control of Ukraine’s Crimean region, before formally annexing the peninsula after Crimeans voted to join the Russian Federation in a disputed local referendum. Russian President Vladimir Putin cited the need to protect the rights of Russian citizens and Russian speakers in Crimea and southeast Ukraine. The crisis heightened ethnic divisions, and two months later pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine held a referendum to declare independence from Ukraine.
Violence in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed separatist forces and the Ukrainian military has by conservative estimates killed more than 10,300 people and injured nearly 24,000 since April 2014. Although Moscow has denied its involvement, Ukraine and NATO have reported the buildup of Russian troops and military equipment near Donetsk and Russian cross-border shelling.
In July 2014, the situation in Ukraine escalated into an international crisis and put the United States and the European Union (EU) at odds with Russia when a Malaysian Airlines flight was shot down over Ukrainian airspace, killing all 298 onboard. Dutch air accident investigators concluded in October 2015 that the plane had been downed by a Russian-built surface-to-air missile. In September 2016, investigators said that the missile system was provided by Russia, determining it was moved into eastern Ukraine and then back to Russian territory following the downing of the airplane.
Since February 2015, France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine have attempted to broker a cessation in violence through the Minsk Accords. The agreement includes provisions for a cease-fire, withdrawal of heavy weaponry, and full Ukrainian government control throughout the conflict zone. However, efforts to reach a diplomatic settlement and satisfactory resolution have been unsuccessful.
In April 2016, NATO announced that the alliance would deploy four battalions to Eastern Europe, rotating troops through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to deter possible future Russian aggression elsewhere in Europe, particularly in the Baltics. These battalions were joined by two U.S. Army tank brigades, deployed to Poland in September 2017 to further bolster the alliance’s deterrence presence.
Ukraine has been the target of a number of cyberattacks since the conflict started in 2014. In December 2015, more than 225,000 people lost power across Ukraine in an attack, and in December 2016 parts of Kyiv experienced another power blackout following a similar attack targeting a Ukrainian utility company. In June 2017, government and business computer systems in Ukraine were hit by the NotPetya cyberattack; the crippling attack, attributed to Russia, spread to computer systems worldwide and caused billions of dollars in damages.
Security assistance to Ukraine increased further during the Donald Trump administration, alongside continued pressure on Russia over its involvement in eastern Ukraine. In January 2018, the United States imposed new sanctions on twenty-one individuals, including a number of Russian officials, and nine companies linked to the conflict. In March 2018, the State Department approved the sale of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, the first sale of lethal weaponry since the conflict began. In October 2018, Ukraine joined the United States and seven other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries in a series of large-scale air exercises in western Ukraine. The exercises came after Russia held its annual military exercises in September 2018, the largest since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Concerns
The conflict in Ukraine risks further deterioration of U.S.-Russia relations and greater escalation if Russia expands its presence in Ukraine or into NATO countries. Russia’s actions have raised wider concerns about its intentions elsewhere in Eastern Europe, and a Russian incursion into a NATO country would solicit a response from the United States as a NATO ally. The conflict has heightened tensions in Russia’s relations with both the United States and Europe, complicating the prospects for cooperation elsewhere including on issues of terrorism, arms control, and a political solution in Syria.
Alerts
A Visual Exploration of the Conflict
Conflict in Ukraine
Conflict in Ukraine
Background Articles
Dan Sabbagh Guardian December 26, 2021
Isabelle Khurshudyan and Serhiy Morgunov Washington Post December 25, 2021
Paul Kirby BBC December 23, 2021
David M. Herszenhorn Politico December 21, 2021
Eilish Hart Foreign Policy Research Institute December 14, 2021
Vladimir Isachenkov Associated Press December 7, 2021
Andrew S. Bowen Congressional Research Service December 6, 2021
Michael Schwirtz New York Times December 6, 2021
Anton Troianovski New York Times December 5, 2021
Michael Kimmage and Michael Kofman Foreign Affairs November 22, 2021
Ostap Yarysh and Myroslava Gongadze Voice of America November 22, 2021
Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt New York Times November 19, 2021
Melinda Haring Foreign Affairs November 19, 2021
Seth G. Jones, Michelle Macander, and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Center for Strategic and International Studies November 17, 2021
Betsy Woodruff Swan and Paul McLeary Politico November 1, 2021
Mykola Bielieskov Center for Strategic and International Studies September 21, 2021
Rob Lee Foreign Policy Research Institute August 23, 2021
Angela Stent Foreign Affairs August 16, 2021
Heather A. Conley, Matthew P. Funaiole, and Joseph S. Bermeduz Jr. Center for Strategic and International Studies April 22, 2021
Vladimir Isachenkov Associated Press April 15, 2021
Marek Menkiszak and Andrzej Wilk Centre for Eastern Studies April 14, 2021
Dan Sabbagh Guardian April 12, 2021
Andrew E. Kramer New York Times March 30, 2021
Maria Varenikova and Andrew E. Kramer New York Times November 4, 2020
International Crisis Group September 3, 2020
International Crisis Group August 3, 2020
International Crisis Group April 27, 2020
Thomas de Waal Carnegie Endowment for International Peace April 14, 2020
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty October 2, 2019
Katharine Quinn-Judge and Olga Oliker International Crisis Group September 11, 2019
Alexander Baunov Carnegie Moscow Center September 9, 2019
Nataliya Bugayova Institute for the Study of War September 5, 2019
Sergey Sukhankin Jamestown Foundation September 3, 2019
Nataliya Bugayova Institute for the Study of War August 13, 2019
Paul Goble Jamestown Foundation August 6, 2019
International Crisis Group July 16, 2019
Nataliya Bugayova Institute for the Study of War July 12, 2019
Céline Marangé War on the Rocks July 3, 2019
Konstantin Skorkin Carnegie Moscow Center July 3, 2019
Ian McNaught Davis New Humanitarian June 13, 2019
Anna Arutunyan International Crisis Group June 11, 2019
Illia Ponomarenko Kyiv Post June 7, 2019
Frederick W. Kagan, Nataliya Bugayova, and Jennifer Cafarella Institute for the Study of War June 2019
Kurt Volker, Charles Kupchan, Marek Menkiszak, Oxana Shevel, and Andrew S. Weiss Carnegie Endowment for International Peace May 29, 2019
Anna Arutunyan International Crisis Group May 13, 2019
Peter Dickinson Foreign Affairs April 24, 2019
Jonathan Brunson War on the Rocks April 20, 2019
Steven Pifer Brookings Institution March 18, 2019
Elise Giuliano Foreign Affairs March 18, 2019
Bill O'Reilly NBC News February 17, 2019
Laurens Cerulus Politico February 14, 2019
Natalie Vikhrov World Politics Review February 12, 2019
Gwendolyn Sasse Carnegie Europe February 7, 2019
Jonathan Brunson War on the Rocks February 1, 2019
Vladimir Socor Jamestown Foundation January 31, 2019
David Gauvey Herbert Bloomberg Businessweek January 30, 2019
Jonas Claes and Artem Miroshnichenko United States Institute of Peace December 20, 2018
Steven Pifer Brookings Institution December 3, 2018
Gwendolyn Sasse Carnegie Europe November 29, 2018
Steven Pifer Brookings Institution October 9, 2018
Neil MacFarquhar New York Times October 7, 2018
International Crisis Group October 1, 2018
Natalia Shapovalova and Balázs Jarábik Carnegie Europe September 12, 2018
David Bond and Roman Olearchyk Financial Times September 6, 2018
Christopher Miller Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty August 7, 2018
Thomas de Waal Carnegie Europe July 5, 2018
Adam Yang Strategy Bridge June 19, 2018
Lyle J. Goldstein National Interest June 3, 2018
Gwendolyn Sasse Carnegie Europe May 3, 2018
Melinda Haring Atlantic Council April 30, 2018
Cynthia Buckley, Ralph Clem, Jarod Fox and Erik Herron Washington Post April 9, 2018
Magdalena Grono and Jonathan Brunson International Crisis Group March 6, 2018
Steven Pifer Brookings Institution February 22, 2018
Sam Ellis Vox February 8, 2018
Ruslan Minich Atlantic Council January 10, 2018
Samantha Raphelson NPR January 10, 2018
Michael Kimmage War on the Rock December 28, 2017
Andrew E. Kramer New York Times December 20, 2017
International Crisis Group December 15, 2017
Mieczyslaw P. Boduszynski and Christopher K. Lamont Foreign Affairs November 27, 2017
Julian Coman Guardian November 12, 2017
Rajan Menon and William Ruger Foreign Affairs October 11, 2017
Ben Watson Defense One October 5, 2017
Alexei Arbatov War on the Rocks September 28, 2017
Magdalena Grono International Crisis Group September 13, 2017
Michael R. Gordon New York Times August 21, 2017
Vera Mironova and Ekaterina Sergatskova Foreign Affairs August 1, 2017
Luke Coffey National Interest July 20, 2017
Andreas Umland Carnegie Europe July 4, 2017
Andrew Foxall and Lincoln Pigman Foreign Affairs June 29, 2017
RAND Corporation May 2017
Yuras Karmanau Associated Press May 5, 2017
Keir Giles Carnegie Endowment for International Peace May 3, 2017
Andrew E. Kramer New York Times March 15, 2017
Kathleen Harris CBC News March 11, 2017
Balazs Jarabik War on the Rocks February 8, 2017
Andrew Roth Washington Post February 1, 2017
The Economist January 21, 2017
Lorne Cook Associate Press December 7, 2016
Reuters November 1, 2016
Alexander J. Motyl Foreign Affairs September 25, 2016
Ivan Nechepurenko New York Times September 10, 2016
Michael Kofman Foreign Policy August 31, 2016
Beth Mitchneck, Jane Zavisca, and Theodore P. Gerber Foreign Affairs August 24, 2016
Michael Kofman War on the Rocks August 19, 2016
Askold Krushelnycky Foreign Policy August 1, 2016
International Crisis Group July 18, 2016
International Crisis Group February 5, 2016
Center for Strategic & International Studies
Latest CFR Analysis
Charles A. Kupchan Project Syndicate December 24, 2021
Stephen Sestanovich CFR In Brief December 23, 2021
Thomas Graham, Michael Kofman, Hanna Shelest, and Susan B. Glasser CFR Meeting December 16, 2021
Richard Haass Project Syndicate December 14, 2021
Mary Elise Sarotte and James M. Lindsay CFR Podcast, “The President’s Inbox” December 14, 2021
Petro Poroshenko and Charles A. Kupchan CFR Meeting December 8, 2021
Jonathan Masters CFR Backgrounder December 2, 2021
Max Boot CFR In Brief November 19, 2021
Volodymyr Dubovyk, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Anton Troianovski, and Sarah E. Mendelson CFR Meeting June 30, 2021
Thomas Graham CFR Blog, “Strength Through Peace” January 8, 2020
Robert McMahon CFR In Brief December 5, 2019
Stephen Sestanovich and James M. Lindsay CFR Podcast, “The President’s Inbox” October 8, 2019
Stephen Sestanovich CFR In Brief October 4, 2019
Cyril Hovorun and Adrian Karatnycky CFR Religion and Foreign Policy Conference Call October 30, 2018
Nadiya Kostyuk CFR Blog, “Net Politics” August 29, 2018
Tim Maurer CFR Blog, “Net Politics” January 30, 2018
Charles Kupchan Washington Post August 7, 2017
Council of Councils CFR 2016 Report Card on International Cooperation May 2016
Steven Pifer CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum Update October 2015
Robert McMahon CFR Backgrounder
Jonathan Masters CFR Backgrounder
Jonathan Masters CFR Backgrounder
Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies CFR Insights From a CFR Workshop September 2015
Primary Sources
White House September 1, 2021
Vladimir Putin Kremlin July 12, 2021
Michael R. Pompeo U.S. Department of State July 25, 2018
U.S. Department of State May 15, 2018
U.S. Department of State March 14, 2018
Defense Intelligence Agency June 2017
Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights June 13, 2017
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
UN News Centre July 14, 2016
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs February 24, 2015
U.S. Diplomatic Mission to Ukraine
U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S. Department of State February 16, 2015
John Kerry U.S. Department of State February 12, 2015
European Union March 21, 2014