Azerbaijan: Evaluating the Radical Islamic Security Threat

The recent arrests of suspected Islamic radicals in Azerbaijan have spurred concern about possible terrorism incidents. Political analysts in Baku tend to downplay the threat. Meanwhile, moderate Islamic religious leaders contend that government security sweeps have created an "atmosphere of fear" among mainstream believers.

The terrorism scare began in late October, when the Ministry of National Security announced the break up of an Islamic militant group that had been plotting attacks against foreign targets in Baku. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The announcement prompted the brief closure of US and British diplomatic offices in Baku. Some group members who evaded arrest during the initial October 27 raid, carried out an attack against a Lukoil gas station three days later. The last member of the group at large, identified as Bakhtiar Orujov, was ultimately taken into custody November 20.

On November 6, authorities detained eight Islamic militants affiliated with a second group, including a foreigner, identified only as Abu Jafar, who was characterized in a ministry statement as an operative affiliated with the al Qaeda international terrorist organization. The arrests came after security forces engaged in a cat-and-mouse-like search for more than a month, painstakingly sifting information that finally led them to a safe house in Sumgayit, where the militants were seized.

The fact that the ringleader of the first group was a military officer, Lt. Kamran Asadov, prompted widespread concern that radical Islamic ideology, termed by many in Azerbaijan as Wahhabism, is gaining a foothold in state structures. On November 30, Eldar Safarov, chief spokesman for the Defense Ministry, adamantly denied that the military had become a hotbed of militant Islamic sentiment. "There are no radical religious groups under the title Wahhabism in Azerbaijani military units," the Trend news agency quoted Safarov as saying. At the same time, he noted that the Defense Ministry had "reinforced measures" to prevent the infiltration of radical Islamic ideology into the military.

Since the first announcement about arrests in late October, government officials have sought to project a sense of normalcy and continuity. "There is total stability in Azerbaijan and law-enforcement agencies are keeping the situation under control. Not only foreign embassies, but all citizens have no problems with security threats," Deputy Foreign Minister Khalaf Khalafov said at press conference on October 30.

The arrests began shortly after a sudden visit to Baku by CIA Director Gen. Michael Hayden to Azerbaijan. Many local experts believe the CIA director may have shared information with Azerbaijani law-enforcement agencies that enabled them to launch the security operations. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Azerbaijani broadcast and print media outlets have devoted lots of attention to the arrests of suspected Wahhabis. Baku-based political analysts are urging caution in evaluating the security threat, suggesting that local media may be exaggerating the danger. One Baku expert, Rasim Musabekov, said the greatest threat perhaps was that a clampdown on suspected radicals would result in the restriction of civil liberties. Musabekov specifically worried that steps to heighten surveillance could end up imposing burdens on the legitimate expression of spiritual beliefs by those "who express their religious feelings in different forms from others."

Recent events appear to have rendered Islamic leaders at Azerbaijani mosques with conservative reputations more sensitive to outside scrutiny. When queried about the arrests of militants, Gamet Suleymanov – the imam of the Abu-Bekr Mosque in central Baku, once described by a government official as a "den of Wahhabis" – refused to comment. "I have nothing to do with it," Suleymanov said.

Meanwhile, Ilgar Ibrahimoglu, the imam at Baku's Juma mosque, accused authorities of casting a net too broadly, thereby ensnaring devout believers along with a few militants. Security forces had created an "atmosphere of fear" among devout believers, the imam said. "Religious people of Sumgayit city have lived in fear during the last weeks. The Ministry for National Security conducted operations there, but residents were kept in the dark," added Ibrahimoglu, an outspoken defender of religious rights in Azerbaijan. In 2004, he led resistance to government efforts to close the Juma Mosque, which is known for its progressive social activities. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Law-enforcement agencies instituted heightened security procedures in the wake of the arrests. Heavily armed police patrols were stationed at check points along the country's main roads and around the outskirts of Baku, stopping vehicles and conducting searches.