Politics blog + Labour

Delegates listen to the TUC general secretary, Brendan Barber, at the annual TUC conference in Manchester. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Perhaps inevitably, spending cuts will be the dominant theme at the 142nd TUC conference, which begins in Manchester today.

Union leaders will attempt to challenge the coalition government's insistence that deep cuts in public spending are needed over a short time – or that they are needed at all, in the case of leftwing unions such as the Public and Commercial Services union.

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David Cameron and Tony Blair in 2006. Photograph: Jonathan Buckmaster/PA Archive/Press Association Ima

Tony Blair devotes relatively little space amid the 718 pages of his autobiography to David Cameron or the Conservative party. But in comments set to rile the left of the Labour party, the former prime minister makes some positive noises about certain strands of Tory policy, prompting Mark Hoban, financial secretary to the Treasury, to claim Blair is backing Tory economic policies in the book and rejecting the policies followed by Brown and the Labour party.

On the economy, Blair counters the consensus view among Labour's leadership candidates, who are criticising the government for trying to cut the deficit too quickly amid claims that doing so will put the economy at risk.

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He was the supposed marriage counsellor between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, the link between old and New Labour ... and John Prescott could also balance a cup and saucer on his stomach.

In his autobiography, A Journey, Blair recalls how Prince Charles was taken aback after his first meeting with Prescott.

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David and Ed Miliband: Labour leadership frontrunners. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

Do I have an opinion as to who should be the next leader of the Labour party? Yes. Am I keeping it to myself? Yes again. Is this because I am a flabby-faced coward? No.

It is because I realised long ago that people like me, metropolitan journalists who write about politics for a living, do not decide the outcome of these contests – and should not try to. Wiser not to succumb to self-importance by trying.

Even more relevant, our contributions are likely to be counterproductive, irritating the very people we may foolishly be trying to influence – those with a vote, in this instance the tripartite membership of Labour's electoral college: MPs, activists and trade union supporters.

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The aftermath of the 1972 Claudy bombing: a report on the cover-up has been handed to the government. Photograph: PA Wire/PA

Should we be offended that a British government and police force colluded with the Irish Catholic hierarchy to protect an IRA priest mixed up in the 1972 Claudy bombing?

Nine people – five Catholics and four Protestants, among them two children – were killed in the blast, which happened without warning. Thirty more were injured.

You have to take a very deep breath before answering: "No, but we should learn lessons from what the authorities did."

The story of Father James Chesney's role as the IRA's local "director of operations" (don't you love the title?) in South Derry is in today's papers because an official report has just been delivered to the British government.

But the outline has been known for years. Chesney was a tall, dark and handsome rascal who drove around in an open-topped Austin Healey, the life and soul of many a party. His ardent republicanism was not revealed to people such as Ivan Cooper, the distinguished local nationalist MP at the time.

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Nick Clegg. Photograph: Lewis Whyld/PA

What should we all be making of the flurry of weekend rumours about Charles Kennedy-led defections from the Liberal Democrats to Labour? Though I reported this development during my annual August stint on the news rota, it was a matter of duty. I don't think it will happen. The Australian election result complicates matters too.

No one denies that there are problems looming for the Lib Dems inside the coalition, as events of recent days have underlined. As Jackie Ashley notes in her Guardian column today, Simon Hughes – the unofficial leader of the internal opposition – got cross about Michael Gove's "free" school policy and demanded party vetoes.

Then there was the problem over Sir Philip Green's appointment to look at Whitehall waste. Apart from being a loudmouth bit of City rough who famously abused the then-Guardian City editor Paul Murphy on the suspicion he might be Irish, Green is keen to avoid his family wasting too much money on tax: his wife, who lives in tax-lite Monaco, owns much of their wealth. Sir Phil sees her at weekends.

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The Guardian and ICM have been conducting monthly polls since 1984. Here is the full data going back to then. Plus, for the first time, we can bring you the trends in the big questions and how they've changed over time. Continue reading...

The cover of Blair's book. Photograph: John Swannell

Tony Blair will not be taking any chances at a signing to promote his memoir A Journey next month.

The Bookseller reports that the former prime minister will be meeting his public at Waterstone's in Piccadilly, London, on 8 September.

But Blair fans will have to comply with a number of strict conditions before being allowed near the great man:

Customers cannot be photographed with Blair, there will be no personal dedications, and all bags, backpacks and briefcases must be checked in, along with cameras and mobile phones, before meeting the former Labour leader. Blair will sign a maximum of two books per customer.

In addition, those wanting to have their book signed must show proof they bought it from Waterstone's that morning. They will then receive a wristband, although, as the Bookseller points out, this "does not guarantee Blair will sign the customer's book". Ouch.

A Journey will be released on 1 September, as a hardback, and a special red and gold edition, as the Guardian reported earlier this week. Blair was reportedly paid an advance of £4.6m for the book. Continue reading...

Gordon Brown was a fan of slogans, Labour pollster Deborah Mattinson reveals in her new book. Photograph: Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters

The Times reportedly paid £350,000 to serialise Lord Mandelson's book. My budget for book serialisations is rather more modest – but I did manage to wangle a copy of Deborah Mattinson's book, Talking to a Brick Wall, and it's definitely worth a blog.

Mattinson was involved in polling and focus group research for Labour for 25 years, and describes herself on the dustjacket as "chief pollster to Gordon Brown", although the book reveals that they fell out before the 2010 election.

It's not the best book on New Labour, but it contains more insight and less bile than many memoirs and probably deserves more attention than it has received. Continue reading...

Tony Blair predicted in private that Gordon Brown would face a leadership challenge if he failed to improve. Photograph: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The extensive coverage of Peter Mandelson's memoirs today has largely overlooked an intriguing element in the book. This is Tony Blair's role behind the scenes as Gordon Brown's position became weaker and weaker.

The extracts today raise an interesting question: did the former prime minister break his word to the Labour party? Blair gave two key informal undertakings over the years. These were that he would:

• Not hang around in office as long as Margaret Thatcher. He stayed longer than expected. But his ten years at No 10 meant he observed this undertaking, if not in spirit, because Thatcher remained as prime minister for eleven and a half years.

• Not repeat Thatcher's mistake of behaving like a backseat driver. Blair issued a strong signal on this front when he stood down as an MP on the day he resigned as prime minister in 2007 to concentrate on his new role as Middle East envoy for the "quartet".

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Tom Clark and Allegra Stratton are joined by Jonathan Freedland and Madeleine Bunting to discuss the ways in which the coalition has moved into Labour's natural territory

David Cameron is at his first international summit, working the room, turning on the charm, establishing the personal rapport that is vital in high-level politics. Sitting in a room alone with seven other top leaders over lunch and dinner – albeit with officials listening in from outside the room – must be the moment you realise with total certainty that you are prime minister.

He has also piled up four bilaterals, including a big one yesterday with Barack Obama, a man of real professorial intelligence, but he is also thinking domestic politics. He is strangely thrilled at the way in which Labour is attacking the Liberal Democrats for the big betrayal of joining the coalition, especially Nick Clegg's role in the axe-wielding, VAT-raising budget.

Why is the prime minister so happy? Well, he thinks the tone of the Labour attacks is driving the Liberal Democrats deeper into the arms of the Conservatives, and that from Labour's point of view this is hardly intelligent politics. It is creating a realignment in which Labour ends up on the wrong side.
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Labour leadership candidates Andy Burnham, Ed Balls, David Miliband, Ed Miliband and Diane Abbott. Photograph: Leon Neal/AFP/Getty, David Levene, Toby Melville/Reuters, John Stillwell/PA, Martin Godwin

The MPs have largely cast their nominations, and the Famous Five are now touring the country speaking/pandering to various audiences in the constituency section of the Labour party, but soon the unions are going to come into play, and the focus will be on gaining the recommendations of the union executives. Unison and Unite, the biggish two of the unions, gather in Leeds on two consecutive days – 2 and 3 July – to meet the candidates and make a recommendation.

The unions represent a third of the vote in the electoral college, and, in a very tight contest, their votes will matter. One of the three leading contestants told me yesterday that they had no idea how the ballot would end save that it would be a very close result, and go right to the final round.

In 1994 the union executive recommendations counted for nothing in the Labour leadership contest. Faced by a choice of Tony Blair, John Prescott, and Margaret Beckett, every major union recommended their memberships vote for either Beckett or Prescott, and every single union membership voted for Blair. The media, and Blair's performance, trumped the guidance of the union leaderships.
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