Even before yesterday's "hair shirt" budget – which slashed public sector workers' pay, cut back child benefit and reduced dole payments to the Irish unemployed – Fianna Fáil were deeply unpopular.
Known in English as the "Soldiers of Destiny", the party founded by Éamon de Valera seemed destined to be out of office once the next general election was called in the republic.
Blamed for the recession that Ireland is still mired in, Fianna Fáil has for the last 12 months been enduring record low support in opinion poll after opinion poll. Aware that it is currently loathed, with a large section of the Irish public believing that the 12 years of Fianna Fáil-led rule had been an era of greed and profligacy, the party calculated that in the short- to medium-term a necessarily but brutal slash-and-burn budget would hardly make a difference to its standing in the polls.
The €4bn cuts in public sector pay, capital spending projects, and jobseekers' allowances as well as the imposition of a carbon tax might even result in Fianna Fáil plunging further down in the opinion polls. The description of the government's budget by Fine Gael, the main opposition party, as "jobless and joyless" will undoubtedly resonate with the unemployed, poorer families reliant on child benefit and lower income workers, of the latter in particular public sector workers. All of these social groups will point out that the recession was caused in part by greedy developers who overheated the property market and hence the entire economy thanks also to loans from their chums in the main Irish banks. Many of those who will endure pain over the next 12 months will wonder why they suffer while the banks received billions of taxpayers' euros to rescue them from a crisis they had caused alongside the property tycoons.
Yet one of the overlooked aspects of the 2009 Irish budget, which aims to rebalance the Irish economy in the relatively short period of three years, is direct taxation. Unlike Alistair Darling and his threat to increase national insurance, his Irish counterpart Brian Lenihan has resisted raising any direct taxes.
In fact taxation may yet become the achilles heel of the Irish opposition in the longer term. If there was an election tomorrow Fine Gael would storm to power along with their traditional coalition partners in the Irish Labour party. The central problem however for this alliance would be what to do about taxation. Labour favours raising taxes on the well-off while Fine Gael seems opposed to tax hikes. This has been seized upon by Fianna Fáil as evidence that their rivals have opposing and contradictory tax policies.
That is one shred of hope for Fianna Fáil; the other is the long term prospects of the economy. If, as seems likely, Brian Cowen's party survives over the next few days and pushes the budget through the Dáil, Fianna Fáil strategists will argue that their fate is far from sealed. And if the harsh measures imposed in this budget to drive down the €12bn hole in public finances works and the economy returns to growth, they will contend that the electorate's perception of the Cowen government may change, that the public will in fact reward it for demonstrating courage and economic competence in the most testing of times. Indeed Lenihan even predicted in the Dáil yesterday that the Irish economy would start growing again within the next nine months, which is a bold assertion given that Ireland's gross domestic product fell by 7.5% in 2009.
Lenihan, Cowen and even their junior partners in the Green party have tried to emphasise that the budget cuts are in the national interest, and that the pain is shared equally across all social sectors. That is why Cowen agreed to a near €60,000 cut in his salary while his ministers accepted a 15% pay cut. The ministerial pay cuts were designed to send out a message of social solidarity to the rest of the country. However, they will need to do much more if they are to convince the public that everyone is paying a price for the waste and greed of the Celtic tiger years. They could start with a few property tycoons and top bankers being dragged through the Irish courts in handcuffs.
Comments in chronological order (Total 10 comments)
10 December 2009 7:53AM
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10 December 2009 8:00AM
Maybe now someone can finally elaborate for me the difference between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.
10 December 2009 10:10AM
@Webcorex2 One is the government and was against the Home Rule Treaty brokered by Michael Collins 90 years ago leading to a civil war.
The other is the opposition and supported the Treaty.
That's it. Yes, an almost century-old conflict still defines party allegiance in this country.
10 December 2009 10:56AM
The original cause of the split between FF ang FG was a split in Sinn Fein (quite different from the modern SF) over the 1920 treaty establishing the Irish Free State, as Necronomnomnom said.
There are some political differences between FF and FG nowadays, although they're often subtle and difficult to discern. In lazy political shorthand, FG are quite similar to One-Nation Conservatives - quite woolly and hopeless at political positioning, but with benevolent instincts. FF are rather more populist, and wrap themselves in the flag a lot more than FG - Berlusconi's Forza Italia party is the most apt comparison that comes to mind.
10 December 2009 11:43AM
Lenihan caved to the pensioners and the bankers last year and they weren't touched yesterday. So ?4bn in cuts for the rest of us, but the civil service pensions remain sky high and the AIB, Bank of Ireland and Irish Nationwide/Permanent TSB will get their approx ?10bn in recapitalisation next year. And as for Anglo Irish Bank...
If Greece sinks she takes Ireland down with her.
10 December 2009 11:45AM
It's easy to tell them apart:
Fianna Fáil: The party of no ideas.
Fine Gael: The party of bad ideas.
10 December 2009 2:53PM
For the difference between FF and FG, an old joke seems very apt:
one is weaselly recognised while the other is stoatly different...
But what the hell is going on with the headline for this piece:
Would a few extra words have hurt so much in order to provide a bit of clarity. it took me about three reads of it to understand it.
10 December 2009 4:46PM
Public employees in Ireland earn far too much. They were given huge bumps in pay to match the private sector during the boom years, these have to be cut back. Ireland did not show true economic growth since the introduction of the Euro, so I would suggest that all sallaries are cut back to 2002 levels and below. This would reduce costs and prices, making Ireland more suitable for investment and competition. Also why are familes allowed to stay on the dole for generations, why didn't the government have a 6 month rule on unemployment benefit like some other eurozone countries. There are lots of people who wouldn't work to save their lives, they should not be on benefit. Also why is child benefit paid to the rich, only people who need it should get it.
11 December 2009 5:17AM
There's no chance of quick growth following cuts like these. Within 9 months the banks will likely need further support. Similar policies have crashed economies in Africa & South America; why will Ireland's economy respond differently to such shock treatment?
British politician's will watch Ireland like hawks over the next 6 months. If it begins to go into a downward spiral, the UK Tories will need to change their policies PDQ.
13 December 2009 12:49PM
I'm no political scientist but looking for similarities between Fianna Fail and other political parties around Europe will yield none. FF have lurched from one scandal to another, in almost clock-like fashion, since the the so-called 'Arms Crisis' of the late 60s. IF anything they are akin to Gore Vidal's loathed Republicans: not so much a political entity as a 'mind set'. An incorrigible collection of crooks and shysters on the make, they have brought the country to the brink time and time again. THE puzzle is that tax payers vote for them time and time again. It is a quite depressing and unique phenomenon.