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- guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 12 May 2010 21.15 BST
Will this yellow-blue coalition last longer than an incomplete flat-pack from the Swedish company of the same colours? Photograph: Peter Morrison/AP
Weddings stir deep emotions. Some weep with simple joy as the happy couple plight their troth. Some cry with disappointment. But some wise old heads sniff into their handkerchiefs because they have sat through too many costly "happy ever after" ceremonies that ended in acrimony.
Those who remember the Two Davids of the 1987 SDP-Liberal Alliance will recall the exquisite agony only too well, cruelly captured by the Spitting Image puppet of little Steel perched in big Owen's pocket. I was responsible for the appalling daily press conferences during that election, when all the press sought was a wafer of difference between the two: they often found a crevasse, even between those similar parties.
These parties are cultural enemies. Try running this three-legged race in the wicked world of 24-hour news, blogging and tweeting. Keeping the peace will be a hundred times harder. Offence will be given and taken, division deliberately exaggerated, gossip, rumour and malice stirred to hurt the pride of the junior partner. Lib Dems will be easily huffed and miffed, bounced, forgotten and ignored. The Tory partner, five times the size, will trample the other like a rhino without noticing.
In the spring garden the Clegg-Cameron civil partnership looked magnificent, the two men perfectly cloned in face, age, education, accent and style. Naturally the audience of cynical hacks from all sides of the political spectrum came away shaking their heads. Bets were laid, jokes made, the wedding gifts would soon be on eBay and it would all end in tears.
But there was too much wishful thinking in the air from ill-wishers yesterday. The right will hiss and spit from David Cameron's back row – and with good cause. Look hard at the agreement and the bitter truth Labour must swallow is that much here is more radical than their own manifesto.
Before they rush to pour scorn, a little sombre reflection would be in order. There are policies here that Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling adamantly, and wrongly, refused to contemplate so wedded were they to New Labour's rigid caution, triangulating themselves to death. What better example that the raising of capital gains tax back towards 40%, where it was until Brown disastrously cut it to 10%, unleashing the private equity explosion? The Lib Dems' raising of the tax threshold to £10,000, starting next April with £5bn worth, will redress the losses of average and low earners who have not done well; it won't help the very poorest but that doesn't make it wrong. A big tax avoidance push is long overdue, as is splitting the banks. So is a green tax on planes – and more. A Nixon in China moment, these are things Tories can do: where else does Outraged of the City turn? But the Tories would never have done these without the Lib Dems.
Yes, the £6bn cuts will be made, and too soon, but now the heat of the election is over, the truth is the Labour cutting agenda was itself virtually as savage: halving the deficit in four years was needlessly fierce, done for Tory-hugging political reasons, leaving too little radical difference for Labour in the election. Too late now for Labour to repent its civil liberties folly – again done to triangulate Tories.
Before Labour rushes to make a fool of itself heaping scorn, take a deep breath and consider how many of their policies were not constructed out of conviction, but out of self-defeating calculation.
Nonetheless, this coalition may be an Ikea flat-pack with vital screws missing. Looking glossy in its box, it plainly is a bold step into better politics entered into in good faith by both leaders, but once assembled it will wobble.
Lib Dems only survive by fierce protection of every paving stone in their constituencies: just wait for the first teachers, teaching assistants, dinner ladies and doctors to lose their jobs, the first A&E and cottage hospital closures, the loss of youth clubs, community centres and Sure Starts. What then?
Many will break loose and protest or be swept away by the next election. Voters don't do gratitude, and by then today's excellent policy concessions risk being long forgotten. Ruthless electoral necessity may trump all else in this coalition of opposites.
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