Are his political views most in tune with the movement?

Until now I’ve been saying that I thought it was a 50-50 chance between the Miliband brothers and that that an EdM bet was the better value because his price was longer.

Now I’m changing my view - I believe that Ed Miliband has a better chance of winning.

There are two main reasons - firstly the progress his campaign seems to have made in the MP/MEP third of the electoral college. Here it only took a very few changes of mind or alteration of the positioning of the Milibands on the AV list for there to be a big impact.

Last night SkyNews was reporting that a former minister was saying that the EdM deficit here was down to just 14 votes. Whether that was on first preferences or after the lower preferences had kicked in we do not know but there’s a sense that progress has been by the younger brother.

A number of MPs originally declared publicly for DaveM mainly because he was seen as the front runner and his victory a forgone conclusion. That changed with the YouGov poll of members and trade unionists twelve days ago and this, I’m told, helped the EdM campaign in the closing stages particularly in securing pledges of lower preference support from those not making a Miliband their first choice.

Secondly I’ve been looking further at the YouGov poll and have been in conversation with the pollster about the findings.

What I hadn’t appreciated was that a significant number of those who took part in the latest survey were also participants in the July polls and it is possible from the data to track changes.

A big group of switchers amongst trade unionists appeared to be those who in July said they were voting for DavidM even though 29% of them felt that EdM most shared their political views. That proportion fell this month to just 10% and there’s was a corresponding increase in the voting intention figures for EdM.

There’s a similar but smaller pattern in the members section and my guess is that in both sections those still “voting DM but most like EdM’s politics” were the least motivated of voters.

So overall DM appears to have been squeezed in his main area of strength, MPs/MEPs, and lost quite a lot of support amongst members and in the TU section from those who rated EdM’s political views over his.

Mike Smithson

Politicalbetting June 24 2007

What caused the last minute rush to Harriet?

With punters and pundits looking forward to Saturday’s big announcement on the next Labour leader I thought I’d look back and see what happened the last time this election process was used.

Above is a piece published on June 24th 2007 here 75 minutes before the official deputy result was announced. As can be seen Alan Johnson was a rock solid odds-on favourite with the others nowhere. Then, as we got closer to the official announcement at 2.30pm, we saw this late move to Harriet. She, of course, ended up with the prize.

Did somebody know? Will there be movements like this on Saturday?

Mike Smithson

Why are punters ignoring the polling?

The great mystery of the 2010 Labour leadership race has been that David Miliband has continued to be an odds-on favourite even though the only members’ and trade unionists’ polling since voting began showed that he was losing in these two segments of the electoral college.

True the ex-foreign secretary has drifted from 1.2 on Betfair since the publication of the Sunday Times poll eleven days ago but he’s still the heavy odds-on favourite.

This is the first time since I’ve been following political betting that there’s been such a divergence of view between what the polls are showing and how punters are risking their money. It doesn’t add up.

It’s true that there has not been polling of the third segment of Labour’s electoral college, MPs/MEPs, but most of their individual views have been made public and clearly the elder Miliband holds a reasonable lead.

It’s true, also, that YouGov’s polling of the 2007 Labour deputy race got the outcome wrong. But that poll took place before the big TV debate, before ballot papers went out and before the big trade unions began to promote heavily their choice, John Cruddas.

In this latest contest fieldwork for the final YouGov poll started a week after the ballots had gone and after the unions had communicated with their members. We saw the impact of the latter in 2007 and also this summer.

In the July polling EdM had a 12 point deficit amongst trade unionists in response to the “which Miliband” question. The latest poll had him 14 points ahead.

If that is in the right region it provides a substantial buffer to negate DaveM’s lead amongst MPs.

The online pollster has a good record in leadership polls that have been carried out after voting has started. They were right about IDS for the Tories in 2001, David Cameron in 2005 and Nick Clegg in 2007. I would not bet against them.

Mike Smithson

Should HE choose the shadow cabinet - not the PLP?

Whichever of the brothers wins Labour’s election (and online voting finishes at 5pm) he will inherit a structure which drastically reduces his ability to lead and shape the party in the manner that he thinks fit.

For Labour, when in opposition, has an archaic rule that means that the shadow cabinet is elected by MPs and is not chosen by the leader. The winner will be castrated before he starts.

As Paul Waugh writes this morning it was widely assumed that Tony Blair would have ditched the system when he took over in 1994. He didn’t and, of course, it did not matter during Labour’s thirteen years in power. Now it does and seems like an anachronism.

David or Ed Miliband will never be as powerful in the party as in the hours after the election result is announced on Saturday. This coming weekend would be the moment to announce that he wants a change. After all the PLP would surely not want to take on the newly elected leader.

Would either of them do it? I’m not so sure - as David Cameron found shortly after the election taking on a parliamentary party can cause problems. Should the winner do it? My view is yes.

The party’s MPs had a chance to change the rules a fortnight ago. They voted by 143 to 84 votes to maintain the elected system. There is nothing as conservative as a Labour MP.

Mike Smithson