But is he the right one to take on Boris?

No surprise then. The 1/20 favourite for Labour’s London mayoral nomination, Ken Livingstone, has won with 68% of the vote and it all looks set for a re-run of the 2008 race with Boris.

But I wonder whether a beaten two term ex-mayor can return like this? For while Ken will try to make Boris’s record the main campaign issue the blue team are going to dig deep into Ken’s record and point after point could emerge.

I know that a number of senior Labour figures were backing Oona for this reason alone.

On the face of it winning in London, Labour’s main southern stronghold, should be within the party’s grasp in 2012. The election, Britain biggest by a long way, could be a real stepping stone as it tries to re-gain power at Westminster and the signs are that the overall political climate will be nothing like as clement for the blue team as it was in May 2008.

But is Ken the right man to be the flag-bearer? In politics generally the baton is being passed to a younger generation. If Ed Miliband gets it tomorrow then Ken will be a quarter of a century older than his party leader.

Mike Smithson

How big a task is this for Labour?

With voting due to close on Wednesday in Labour’s election to choose a London mayoral candidate there’s what I think is the very first poll on the 2012 election by ComRes for the London Evening Standard.

The numbers show the importance of incumbency and even if you add support for both Labour names together Boris still has a fair lead.

The poll was not past vote weighted so the sample is not politically balanced and a Lib Dem contender was not one of the options.

Interestingly the splits between inner and outer London show marked differences in support. It was, of course, Boris’s success in the outer suburbs that was key to his 2008 victory.

Mike Smithson

Can Ken get his old job back?

The big news this morning in the 2012 London Mayoral race is that Boris Johnson has confirmed he will be seeking re-election for a second term.

In an LBC interview he said he wanted to stay on beyond May 2012 because he had “more to do” improving the capital and overseeing the Olympics - “It is my intention and indeed I have written to seek the nomination to serve as Mayor for another term”.

This ends a period of speculation because there had be much talk of him making a return to the commons as an MP and the possibility that at some stage of him challenging for the party leadership.

Ken Livingstone, who will be 67 in two years time, looks set to take the Labour nomination which is being voted upon at the moment.

On Betfair Boris is 2.1, Ken 2.38 and Oona King 7.4. In the next Tory leader betting Boris remain the favourite though I suspect that today’s news might change that.

Mike Smithson

Guardian

Who’ll win the old-Etonian stand-off over Cross-Rail?

The big development over Boris that Morus only touched on briefly in the last post was the huge row that’s apparently developing between Johnson (Eton and Balliol College Oxford) and Cameron (Eton and Brasenose College Oxford) over plans by Osborne (St. Paul’s and Magdalen College Oxford) to force a 5% cut to the £16bn London CrossRail project.

According to the Guardian, though denied by the Mayor’s office, Johnson has let it be known has let it be known that if all the money is not forthcoming then he will stand for parliament at the next available Westminster by-election. This, of course, raises the possibility of mayoral by election in London involving the capital’s 6m voters.

What the veracity of this is we do not know but Boris is a wily political operator who could be a big threat to Cameron’s leadership if he returned to the commons as an MP.

This could have an impact on a range of betting markets. Even though he is not an MP Boris is the betting favourite to be the next Tory leader. Ladbrokes have him at 5/1 the same as Michael Gove but tighter than the 8/1 against William Hague who has seen an easing.

Boris is also the 4/5 favourite to win the 2012 London Mayoral race - though Bet365’s 13/8 against Ken winning starts to look quite tempting. He has, of course, to be selected as Labour’s candidate - a party election that is taking place in September.

The problem with the “Boris returning to Westminster at a by election” theory is that safe Tory seats don’t come up very often. In the past decade only one sitting Tory MPs has died causing a by election - the total of Labour MP deaths in the same period was ten.

If Boris was to try to get back then the best route would be if a current Tory MP decided to stand down to make way for him - and that is fraught with danger. Voters have a history of punishing parties that cause unnecessary by elections. The Tories also have a miserable record defending by election seats while they are in government.

Mike Smithson