politicalbetting.com

When was the first legal political betting market?

As part of my research for my book on politics and betting I am trying to find the event on which there was the first legal betting market.

Betting became a mass market legal activity in October 1961 when high street betting shops were permitted for the first time.

I know that there was very active betting during the 1963 Tory leadership contest after the resignation of Harold Macmillan because that was when I placed my first ever political bet - a loser as it happens. I should have stopped then!

But can anybody recall betting activity on something earlier - and the biggest event in the intervening period was the Orpington by-election when Eric Lubbock secured a 32% swing for the Liberal and took the south east London suburban seat from the Tories with a majority of nearly 8,000.

This gave them a huge boost in the polls and by October 1962 they were the most popular party in the country.

Can anybody recall betting on this by election and, if possible, does anybody remember the odds? This would be a really helpful addition to the book.

I would be very grateful for any help. Either post it in the comments thread below or email me directly.

The 2007 Prediction Competition: This will now published on New Year’s Day.

Problems on Internet Explorer Visitors trying to use the site on IE are having problems viewing and taking part in discussions. This does not seem to be affecting those using Firefox. My son, Robert, is in Australia and I am trying to contact him to see if he can help.

Mike Smithson

Is this his “most audacious move yet?”

In what the Observer is describing this morning is David Cameron’s most “audacious bid yet to capture Labour’s political ground” the Tory leader says his is “the true party of ‘working people’ in Britain.”

In his New Year message he says that the Tories will become “the party that represents working people rather than the rich and powerful” and declares that the next twelve months will see “Labour’s dark side” coming to the fore.

But for how long can the Tory leader go on making such pronouncements without alienating his core vote?

As the end of year chart showing the Tory position in the average of ICM, Populus and YouGov polls shows support for the party has dropped a touch since the heady days of last May. How much of this is down to a lack of enthusiasm amongst those who look to the party to follow a more traditional approach?

Certainly the progress has been solid and has mostly been sustained but it barely puts the Tories in a position where it might win most seats, never mind securing the MPs to form a majority government.

The gamble, clearly, is that traditional Tories have nowhere else to go and they can either like it or lump it. It will be interesting to see how this develops in 2007.

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Mike Smithson

Thankfully for Lembit not many LDs read the Daily Mail

There is absolutely no doubt about which Lib Dem is going to account for the most column inches during the 2007. For you cannot go round, as the Mail reported, telling complete strangers that they “have the best breasts in Wales” and expect to survive as party shadow spokesman on the Principality.

The tabloids are on to Lembit now and surely the only question is how long will it be before Ming has to sack him?

This is just one of the points for the 2007 Prediction Competition that will be published tomorrow - the thread where entries should be posted. The purpose of this is to provide a discussion forum for some of the issues that will be covered.

Lembit apart, the Lib Dems have had an interesting 2006 - from the depths in late January when poll ratings slipped to 13% to the highs only a few weeks later when they won the Dunfermline by-election from Labour in the seat next door to where Gordon Brown lives.

Will there be a by-election opportunity for the party in 2007. That we do not know but after Bromley in the summer then anything might be possible and you would not rule them out of winning virtually anywhere.

This thread is for discussion only - the questions will be published tomorrow.

Mike Smithson

What will be the size of the “Brown Bounce“?

A key question in our Predicting 2007 competition, to be published tomorrow, will be on the effect of a new Labour leader. What will be the increase in the average of Populus/ICM/YouGov surveys of a new person taking over. Here the change in the PBC Polling Average in the first month is what we are seeking. Also what will Labour’s position be by the same measure two months afterwards?

Another of the questions will be “who will be Prime Minister on Christmas Day 2007?.” On the face of it this is such a certainty that to encourage those who do not simply write “Brown” there will be a special bonus of quadruple points to those who name someone other than the Chancellor who get it right.

For perfectly credible answers could be Tony Blair, David Cameron or one of the Labour alternatives such as David Miliband or John Reid.

On the same there another question will be to give the precise date of Blair’s last day as PM.

Other questions will be “how many candidates for leader will there be?” and who will get the Deputy role?

There will also be questions on Labour performance in the May elections. What will be the number of losses/gains in the Scottish and Welsh parliament elections and in the local council elections on the same day.

We do not know if there will be any Westminster by elections but if there are what will be the average change compared with the General Election in Labour’s vote share?

The thread listing all the questions and where you should put your predictions will be published on Sunday. This is a normal comments thread.

Mike Smithson