politicalbetting.com

Gordon Brown is no longer the “grass is greener” alternative

In its main editorial at the end of 2005 the Daily Telegraph speculates this morning about the possibility that next year could be a General Election year.

It argues: “..Suppose that, at some stage in the coming 12 months, Tony Blair were to decide that he had had enough of the pettiness and contumely of domestic politics. Imagine that he were to seek a grander stage…that his place were to be taken by Gordon Brown and that - as opinion polls presently suggest - Mr Brown’s succession were to boost Labour’s standing. In such circumstances, might not the new Prime Minister be tempted to ask the Queen for an immediate dissolution?…A snap election would have huge attractions for Labour. For one thing, we would not yet have grown sick of our new premier. Mr Brown’s demerits as a party leader - his sullenness, his sourness, his dullness - are assets in a Chancellor, suggesting, as they do, competence. Mr Brown therefore enjoys high approval ratings, which might evaporate once we had to put up with him on the news every night..A 2006 election would preempt the boundary review, saving Labour around 15 seats. It would also catch the Opposition parties unprepared..”

The only problem with this thesis is that its central premise is wrong. Every opinion poll that has tested Brown against Cameron since the new Tory leader was elected has had Labour doing considerably worse under the Chancellor than under Blair.

Probably the most important initial impact of the Cameron leadership is that he has taken over from Gordon Brown the mantle as the “grass is greener” candidate.

That the Telegraph can publish a main editorial in ignorance of this central fact is amazing. This is particularly so because YouGov, the paper’s pollster that got Cameron’s leadership vote to within one per cent, was the first to identify the changed climate and ICM, in a survey for its sister paper, the Sunday Telegraph, came up with similar results a few days later.

The notion that a Brown premiership would be much more popular than a Blair one is so seeped into the media consciousness that the fact that this is no longer the case is going to take time to sink in. But we expect better of a Daily Telegraph leader.

Punters ready to risk money have been a bit more savvy. In the past month the betting price on Brown taking over from Blair has eased from 0.35/1 to 0.47/1. Unless the polls change we cannot see how Labour would choose a new leader who the evidence showed was an electoral liability. A big current bet of mine is that Brown will not make it.

Put faces to the names of those who have contributed some of the 108,708 comments on the site during 2005. The second PB.C party will be on Saturday January 14, at the “Star Tavern” Belgrave Mews West, London SW1. Time - from 6 o’clock onwards. Please contact Innocent Abroad if you want to attend.

Mike Smithson

Kennedy’s secret critics fail to impress punters

The Lib Dem leader’s firm post-Christmas response to those private critics who say, amongst other things, that he does not have the charisma of a Cameron or a Blair has reinforced the doubts of reluctant punters in the Next Lib Dem leader market.

For in spite of all the coverage there has been very little betting on his replacement. Betfair’s market has seen just £5,302 in matched bets with barely £800 going on the ambitious Home Affair spokesman, Mark Oaten. Menzies Campbell is involved in half the matched bets while Simon Hughes is at less than £500.

Gamblers are keeping their money firmly in their wallets because until something happens in relation to Kennedy there is no race. It could be four or five years before punters get a return.

What’s going for Kennedy is that none of his critics are prepared to go public. By his re-statement that he’s staying the only option for those wanting him out is a formal challenge - something for which so far they have not had the stomach.

Things could change quickly, of course, but with the Lib Dem’s still polling at 20% or more it is hard to make the case that Kennedy is an electoral liability. The surveys in next couple of months, particularly ICM and YouGov, could be crucial, particularly if party support drops to 16% or below.

In the meantime it is hard not to admire Kennedy’s resilience.

Mike Smithson

But are things really so bleak for “Teflon Tony” ?

The chances of Tony Blair surviving until New Year’s Day 2008, as rated by gamblers on the “When will Blair go” markets, have again plummeted to the low 20s. They are not quite at the low they reached after November’s Commons defeat on the terror bill but they are getting quite near.

But have gamblers got this one right? Given Blair’s stated intention of serving a full third term the 100/30 that’s available on him going within the next two years looks a reasonable bet.

Sure the arrival of Cameron and the prospect of a series of Labour back-bench rebellions in the New Year do not make 2006 look promising. But Blair always seems to be at his best when his back is to the wall. He does not appear to have any self-doubt about the positions he is taking. And who is going to cast the first stone?

The real problem for those opposed to Blair is that the polls are consistently rating the Prime Minister at a higher level than Gordon Brown when set against David Cameron. How can you press for a change-over when the evidence suggests that the party’s chances would be reduced?

Tony Blair has weathered several years of polls showing that Labour would perform better if Brown was in charge. Now the numbers have turned round the anti-Blairites have got an even harder case to make.

Whatever 2006 is going to be an interesting year.

REMEMBER to enter our prize 2006 Prediction Competition.

Mike Smithson

Will Labour elect Brown even if the opinion polls are against him?

From the way punters are reacting on the betting exchanges Labour’s big beneficiary from the emergence of David Cameron is that other Oxford-educated 2001 Commons’ entrant, David Miliband - the Minister of State for Communities and Local Government.

The chart showing the implied probability of success based on the best betting exchange price and illustrates the move to Miliiband in the past month. He’s now at 7.2/1 and is well ahead of the third favourite, Alan Milburn, at 17/1.

Gordon Brown, of course, is the very solid favourite to replace Tony Blair and the current best price is 0.45/1. This has tightened a bit in the past few days but is nowhere near the 0.35/1 that was the best you could have got at the end of last month.

Some of the confidence in the Brown camp has eroded because four opinion polls since Cameron’s election have shown Labour doing worse under the Chancellor’s leadership than under Blair. If this polling trend continues then we might see greater interest in possible alternatives to Brown.

This is a hard market because we do not know when there will be a contest. For all the pressures he is under Tony Blair does not look like a man about to leave office.

JUST OVER TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE PB.C PARTY. This will be on Saturday January 14, at the “Star Tavern” Belgrave Mews West, London SW1. Time - from 6 o’clock onwards. Please contact Innocent Abroad if you want to attend.

Mike Smithson