politicalbetting.com

Betting opens on Folkestone

How well will the Lib Dems do with their decapitation target number one - Michael Howard? Do they have any chance at all making serious inroads into the Tory leader’s majority in Folkestone?

If you think that they do then a new market offers 2/1 against the Tory leader’s majority being cut. It’s 4/11 on Howards majority increasing.

So the LDs don’t have to take the seat - just reduce the majority

There is a similar market on Tony Blair but the odds are not as encouraging for the Labour leader. It’s 8/11 on Blair’s Sedgefield majority decreasing with evens on it increasing.

For online links click here. Blair’s majority in Sedgefield.
Howard’s majority in Folkestone.
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© Mike Smithson 2005

Frequent site contributor, Mark Jones - we know him a CymruMark - has asked if he can announce his canditature for Plaid Cymru in the Vale of Clwyd on Politicalbetting.

Rhyl, in the constituency, came to prominence last time because it was there that John Prescott got involved in his famous punch up.

Mark said: I chose to launch on political betting .com because it has become the key site on the internet to discuss possible outcomes for the general election. It attracts many top political commentators, and academics, as well as MPs. It has a huge amount of traffic and as I wanted to ensure Wales is at the centre of the general election debate I thought it the best place to make the public announcement of my candidacy

Mark David Jones - a 40 year old local government officer has a colourful political history having been first a Liberal and then Liberal Democrat activist in his native Leicester.He now lives in Llandudno.

He fought two general election campaigns as a Lib Dem candidate, Wyre Forest in 1992 and Leicester West in 1997.

Betting odds. Plaid Cymru Seats.
0 - 3 : 4/1 4: 5/45 +: 11/10

NOTE: there will be a limited service on the site until next Monday because I am on holiday,

Mike Smithson

Both the Tories and Labour advance
Communicate Research’s monthly poll for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday shows only minor changes from last month for the two main parties. The headline figures are LAB 41%(+1):CON 34%(+2): LD 17%(-3)

This equals the lowest poll figure for more than a year for Charles Kennedy’s party and reflects that all the recent campaign skirmishes have been between the two main parties.

CR do not prompt for party choice and do not weight on previous vote recall - both factors that hinder the LDs.

When the LDs advance, as they always do, during the campaign it is likely to be at the expense of Labour. The aggregate share for the two parties has been almost constant in all polls at 58-60%. When the LDs fall Labour rise and vice versa.

So when the LDs come back into the spotlight in the campaign then 5-6% might toggle.

Given the way CR do their polls these are good numbers for Michael Howard. Like other recent surveys UKIP seem to be hardly there.

NOTE I am on holiday until a week on Monday which means there will be a limited service on the site.
Mike Smithson