User-defined Regional Poll

Firstly, enter the national support figures in the first line of the table below to set the overall national swing. Our current national support figures are shown, but you can override them. As you enter national support figures, the national trend values to the right will update.

Then, region-by-region, please enter the support for each party in each region. (Area definitions) This allows different regions to have different swings from the national trend. For reference, the national trend figures on the right give a helpful indication of the expected regional support if there were no differences in swing between regions. As a starting point, you can use either the uniform national trend figures (press "Use Trend Values"), or the regional swing figures implied by the large YouGov poll of June 2009 (press "Use YouGov Swing").

Notes and Guidance

You can display just the seats predicted to change hands ("All GB changed seats"), or see a majority-sorted list of all GB seats ("All GB seats majority-sorted"), or study any region in detail. If a region is selected, the 'Individual seat' menu list allows you to see all the region's seats majority-sorted, or to examine a particular single constituency.

Opportunities in which this page can be used:

1. You may have your own intuition or data implying differences in swing between regions. In this case, enter the national support figures from recent polling, and the "National Trend" entries will update. Then apply your swing differences to those trends to infer regional support levels. For instance, if you think that the Conservatives will have 5% less gain in the North than nationally, just subtract 5% from the "National Trend" figure for Con in "The North" to get their regional support there.
2. Incorporating a Scotland or Wales poll with national polls. Just press the "Use Trend Values" button to set the support in the English regions, then enter the results of the Scottish and/or Welsh poll as the region support levels there. Then press "Predict Election".
3. Using a large-scale poll which provides regional breakdown. There is normally at least one such poll published during the general election campaign. For instance, there was a YouGov poll of 21,877 people in the Daily Telegraph on 4 April 2005. The results of such a poll can be entered directly into the cells above.

Results are shown using the new constituency boundaries.

Areas

Area	Regions	Counties (historic)
Scotland	East Scotland West Scotland	All Scotland
The North	North	Cumbria, Northumberland, Newcastle area, Durham, Cleveland
North West	Lancashire Greater Manchester	Lancashire, Merseyside Manchester boroughs
Yorks/Humber	Yorkshire Humberside	North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire South Yorkshire, Humberside, Lincolnshire
Wales	Wales	All Wales
West Midlands	Severn West Midlands	Cheshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Hereford & Worcestershire Birmingham area
East Midlands	East Midlands	Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Warwickshire
Anglia	East Anglia Essex	Northamptonshire, Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Norfolk, Suffolk Buckinghamshire, Essex, Hertfordshire
South West	South West West	Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset Bristol Area, Gloucestershire, Wiltshire, Oxfordshire
London	North London South London	All London Boroughs
South East	South South East	Berkshire, Hampshire, Surrey West Sussex, East Sussex, Kent

These are similar, but not identical, to current adminstrative regional definitions.