Guardian writers' prediction: 3rd (NB: this is not necessarily Paul's prediction, but the average of our writers' tips)
Last season's position: 2nd
Odds to win the league: 2-1
Manchester United have not just been remarkably consistent since they began scooping in titles under Sir Alex Ferguson, they have been as close to a constant force in English football as Liverpool were in their heyday. When you consider that United maintained their overall superiority in spite of Roman Abramovich pumping millions into Chelsea and Arsène Wenger turning Arsenal into the epitome of European elegance it may even be conceded that modern titles are harder to come by than in the days when Liverpool would finish ahead of runners-up such as Queens Park Rangers, Southampton and Watford, though naturally one would not wish to voice the opinion too loudly on Merseyside.
The past is for historians to argue over, though what seems evident in the present is that just as United were poised to overtake Liverpool's record of 18 titles their team coach stalled at the traffic lights. When the signal turned to green at the end of last season it was Chelsea who went through first and, though United have seen rivals pip them to the honours before, there was something about the way they shuddered to a halt in April that suggested their vehicle is going to be in and out of the garage for the foreseeable future.
Why else would people now be talking of a third or fourth‑place finish for Ferguson's team, or even suggesting they could find themselves out of the Champions League placings by the end of the season? This time last year the same people were either tipping United for a fourth successive title or predicting they would give Chelsea a run for their money, the latter of which in the event turned out to be the case. This summer they added useful defensive cover to their squad in the form of Chris Smalling, and signed one of the most eye-catching strikers at the World Cup in Javier Hernández, yet still the feeling prevails that they are about to go backwards.
There are several seasons why. In terms of the title Chelsea have stopped going backwards and have a steady manager again. If Carlo Ancelotti can win the Double in his first season in England he can certainly supervise another strong league campaign, particularly with Michael Essien back. Essien in particular supplies exactly the sort of drive from midfield that United now lack, and Chelsea are so strong in the engine-room department that they could afford to let Michael Ballack and Deco leave this summer. United have capable midfielders in Darren Fletcher, Michael Carrick and the ageless Paul Scholes, though their ability to seize control and dictate the terms of a game was not always evident when it needed to be last season.
Antonio Valencia should be a better player for having a season at United under his belt, and Park Ji-sung will always make valuable contributions to offset his anonymous days, but Ferguson has never found a satisfactory replacement for Roy Keane – as a midfield influence, a fighter and a leader – and still gives the impression he would rather play Scholes and Ryan Giggs until their knees give out than contemplate the future without them. In fairness, this policy went to plan for most of last season. United's veterans were doing them proud right up until the moment Wayne Rooney became crocked, when it quickly became apparent that, if not quite a one-man team, the defending champions were heavily reliant on one particular marauding attacker to pose problems for opposing defences.
The vacuum that existed when Rooney was absent last season is the chief cause for concern this time round. It would be unfair to expect too much of the 22-year-old Hernández in his first season in English football, Michael Owen is not going to swing a title United's way despite his knack of winning the odd game, and Dimitar Berbatov, without wishing to reignite one of last season's most tiresome debates, is going to have to get among the goals to recover his manager's trust. Ferguson was full of praise for the Bulgarian after the Community Shield, but that was a pre-season stroll in the park. Berbatov was left on the bench for some of the biggest games last season and failed to make a case for himself when Rooney's injury gave him a chance.
United still have Federico Macheda in reserve, and this could be a make or break season for the Italian, though ultimately everything comes down to Rooney. If he stays fit, and performs as he did last season, United will be there or thereabouts. If he misses games through injury, or sends along the impostor who turned up for the World Cup, they will struggle.
As United will shortly have a 40-year-old goalkeeper in Edwin van der Sar, and a 31-year-old centre-half in Rio Ferdinand who increasingly is only a notional leader of the defence, they may well struggle anyway. But, just as with England, Rooney is the true touchstone. Wretched World Cup or not, United still have a striker capable of running riot, and very few of their rivals can say the same. It would not be the greatest surprise in the world to see Rooney start the domestic season in irresistible form. Should that happen, just about anything else could follow.
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