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Pass notes No 2,828: House prices

Are they going up or down? It seems it is very difficult to tell

Interactive: House prices since 2006

A For Sale sign
Have house prices already peaked? Photograph: Alamy

Age: Eternal. The Neanderthals doubtless used to fret about the fall in the value of their caves (The Gravettian Gazette – "Granite homes hit rock bottom!").

Appearance: Frequent (indeed, perpetual in the Daily Express).

Is the Daily Express anything to do with the Gravettian Gazette? Less forward-looking.

And we're interested in house prices now because . . . Because there seems to be some confusion over whether they're going up or down.

You'll want to give me chapter and verse. Too right I will. The news this week has been all bad. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says prices are falling, and predicts continuing decline over the next two years and a rise in repossessions. This is in line with a recent report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research predicting prices will fall next year and be lower in real terms in 2015 than now, and even more dire warnings from PricewaterhouseCoopers that in 2020 house prices could still be below their 2007 peak.

Seems clear enough. Not quite. Lloyds Bank says prices will be static this year but rise by 3% in 2011; the Nationwide and the Halifax are still reporting rising prices; and everyone says London is an exception thanks to an influx of foreign buyers.

So who's right? Good question. "With house prices it's a case of the blind leading the blind," says Russell Quirk, from online estate agency emoov.co.uk.

Does it matter? I sense you are renting. We homeowners think of little else but the value of our bijou semis, and believe it is our god-given right to see the value of our houses rise by 20% a year. Indeed, the economy depends on it, as that gives us the confidence to buy 72in flatscreen TVs and take holidays in Tenerife.

But surely all property values are relative? Indeed, but my relatives live in smaller, cheaper houses than me.

Do say: "This is the economics of the madhouse."

Don't say: "How much is a madhouse going for these days?"


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