Public life in 2010 is a numbers game. The figures looming largest have been 25% and 40% – the indicative budget cuts the Treasury has asked departments to draw up. But as theoretical cuts become practical ones, the units change from percentages to pounds and pence – not to mention real jobs. The justice secretary, Ken Clarke, seems to have (at least come close) to doing his deal early, and a leaked letter from his finance director states that £2bn will have to be saved from a £9bn budget, and explains – with mandarin understatement – that "efficiencies alone will not be enough".
Too right. The letter to colleagues continues that "there will have to be less of us", but left it for others to calculate that 15,000 staff might be out on their ear. This week a study from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development warned that the state's shake-out could lengthen the overall dole queues, and the argument that the coalition is cutting dangerously fast has been well rehearsed, not least in these columns. The point raised by the leaked letter, which says nothing about what the department will actually stop doing, is different. It is that the coalition is putting the cart before the horse, by brokering totals before deciding what needs to be done. It is time to borrow from Sir Humphrey and plead with the government: "If you are going to do this damn silly thing, then don't do it in this damn silly way."
We have been here before. Papers released last December, under the 30-year rule, recorded Margaret Thatcher demanding that the Treasury should stop considering each individual saving on its relative merits, and should instead simply fix departments' overall budgets, and leave them to get on with whatever butchery was required. No one who remembers what happened to the public realm in the years that followed would claim that the pain was meted out in the best way. The parallel becomes more chilling when it is recalled that she was merely demanding cuts of 10%-20% in departmental staff, whereas the demand now is for reductions of 25%-40% in total resourcing.
Perhaps wily old Mr Clarke thinks he will get relatively lenient treatment by settling early. But even within one department, the rough settlement will pose problems. He has told parliament that barely one-tenth of his staff work in the back office, and he may well just have strangled crucial services, such as legal aid and probation. More generally, shrewd negotiating tactics for individual department is no substitute for a collective strategy for cuts. Bevan said the language of priorities was the religion of socialism. It should in fact be the religion of good government, of every stripe. Brokering first and thinking later is the opposite of that.
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