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UK manufacturing hit by export slowdown

• Strong pound and eurozone troubles hinder recovery hopes
• Growth in domestic orders unlikely to continue

Large container ship Maersk Kiel seen from the front Rotterdam port Zuid Holland the Netherlands
Export orders from UK manufacturers in July fell to their lowest point since August last year as a cooling of overseas demand starts to hit home. Photograph: Lourens Smak/Alamy

A slowdown in export orders last month hit Britain's manufacturing base, fuelling concerns that faltering growth in the eurozone and a steady rise in the value of the pound will choke off a recovery in orders.

Economists warned that the second half of 2010 could prove a difficult environment for manufacturers because of the strength of sterling, which this morning rose to a five and a half month high against the dollar, at $1.5764.

Sluggish growth in the eurozone – expected to be around 0.5% this year – could also prove a drag on UK exports.

Manufacturing maintained its steady growth during July, largely supported by domestic orders that left the Markit purchasing managers' index (PMI) down only slightly from 57.6 to 57.3.

Andrew Goodwin, senior economic adviser to forecasting group the Ernst & Young Item Club, said that while the figures showed that UK manufacturing continued to grow at a strong pace, the detail of the survey betrayed more worrying trends, "in particular, the fact that growth in export orders appears to have stalled. It is encouraging that domestic orders have been able to offset external weakness over the past couple of months, but it would be unrealistic to expect this to continue given the headwinds that are likely to buffet the domestic sector over the next couple of years.

"The second quarter will probably represent the high point of quarterly manufacturing output growth, though this balance still points to quarterly growth of more than 1% for the third quarter."

Alan Clarke, UK economist at French bank BNP Paribas, said: "The breakdown showed export orders fell three quarter points to 50.75, the lowest since last August and down around 10 points in the last four months – a sign that a cooling-off in overseas demand is beginning to hit home."

Clarke warned that the services sector, which represents the bulk of the UK economy, is a bigger risk. "This sector has seen its PMI falling for four consecutive months and is four points off the peak," he said. "Last month's services sector Markit/CIPS PMI saw the expectations component collapse, which is typically a good guide to the future evolution of the headline index. Hence Wednesday's July update will be crucial to how the more weighty services sector is likely to affect overall growth."

Mark Bolsom, of currency payments business Travelex, said foreign exchange investors were reassured about the pace of the UK's recovery compared with the US, where fears of a double-dip recession are increasing.

He said: "In the short term, I would expect to see continued support for the pound as UK data continues to outperform that in the US. In the medium term however, I would expect the UK government's austerity measures to impact the pound's strength and continued economic growth in the UK."

Clarke said recent positive figures for the UK, including growth of 1.1% in the second quarter of the year, could represent a high water mark before the economy slips back. Steep cuts in government spending and higher taxes are expected to bite later this year and into 2011.

Across the eurozone, manufacturing was strongest in Germany by a wide margin – accelerating sharply to hit a three-month high. Italy saw growth accelerate to a pace matching April's post-recession peak and Spain also saw output rise at the fastest pace since April.

France, the Netherlands, Ireland and Austria, on the other hand, all saw growth slow compared to post-recession peaks seen earlier in the year.

France, considered one of the more robust eurozone economies, showed signs of faltering after figures showed production declined to an 11-month low while levels of employment dropped at the sharpest pace since September 2009. Rates of job losses also accelerated in Greece but slowed in Ireland and Spain.

Input cost inflation, which slowed in the UK along with output prices, remained marked in France despite easing to a five-month low.

The Markit eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 56.7 in July, up from 55.6 in June and above the earlier estimate of 56.5.


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  • Alasdairca Alasdairca

    2 Aug 2010, 2:48PM

    Strange title... manufacturing has not been hit - it has grown at its fastest rate for 15 years. what has happened (according to the article) is that export orders fell slightly, whether this is as a proportion of the new larger manufacturing sector, or compared to the previous months is not clear....

    might it also be that improving domestic demand has reduced exports..?.

  • christobal0094 christobal0094

    2 Aug 2010, 3:31PM

    There is some fetishism about a strong Pound
    I advise re-reading dear old Agatha Christie about pound value in the 20's

    UK is no more a protected island.
    It is a place, somewhere squeezed between Big Brother USA and the tumultuous Europe.

    we float or sink together.

  • sampsonscfc sampsonscfc

    2 Aug 2010, 4:04PM

    Oh well it won't matter as long as the Bankers keep making money.

    Manufacturing can just go off and continue to die quietly, there is little of value left for the capital to strip now anyway.

    As for the figures. It just looks to me like we are in a depression. So the UK has seen a little recovery (something like inflated prices seems far more likely), but we are not isolated from the rest of the world. The world is in a depression, we will continue to suffer.

    It is not like we can ride out the recession with cheap credit and increasing property sales, like we did the last one. The banks won't lend (which is odd, because a lack of capital never stopped them before) and the property market is now so overpriced no one will risk buying in case there is a sudden crash. Besides we are all hocked up to our eyeballs as it is.

    This country is a joke. You'll note that not a single monetary value is reported for any manufacturing, whether domestic or export. The fact is that the real economy (manufacturing) is of such little value compared to the false economy (financial services, resellers) that it is almost irrelevant now.

  • Demonfreaker Demonfreaker

    2 Aug 2010, 5:32PM

    What is remarkable is how little effect the global recession has had on the UK: I mean, it is pretty amazing in historical and comparative terms.

    You only have to look at the state of the States (homeless middle class all over the place), or the rioting in Greece, or the Thai Red Shirts battling with the government with live rounds: the UK has calk-walked this baby.

    I also imagine much of what the Coalition is giving us is all sound and fury signifying nothing. In true British style, nout will change and people will just whinge their way into a lovely autumn.

    Enjoy the summer!

  • robbinghood robbinghood

    3 Aug 2010, 10:34AM

    At election time the pound was about $1.46 reflecting the market's view of the possibility of a hung Parliament. Today it is nudging $1.60. The pound is also rising against the euro.

    So what the market is saying loud and clear is that the new government is at least on the right economic tracks. In that respect, things can only get better if the government keeps its nerve. Where I would suggest the government change tack slightly is in infrastructure investment. It seems to me that the concept of payback is completely alien in the public sector. There must be literally thousands of capital projects, ranging from the quite small to the mighty, where capital investment would pay back in a very short time period indeed. So what I would like to see is a Treasury team given the remit of identifying projects which really will give hefty paybacks (to start with say 2 years or less) and make funds available for those projects. In short, let's make sure that the baby is not thrown out with the bath water when the swingeing cuts are announced.

    And can we please nail this complete myth that a devalued pound is good for the UK economy because it makes our exports cheaper. In today's world, what a devaluation of the pound does is to import inflation and make our balance of payments worse. Even if manufacturing makes up 13% of the British economy, not all of those firms are reliant on the export market but they almost certainly rely upon imported raw materials. So in reality a devalued pound 'benefits' a very small minority of British firms.

    We must of course do everything to benefit British manufacturing but devaluation is a very shaky crutch on which to rely. For the larger firms the obvious answers are technology and quality along the lines of the German model (which used of course to be the British model). For smaller firms, the answer is a mix of Labour's excellent policy on capital allowances together with a rollback of Labour's disastrous policy on employment taxation and other impedimenta on small firms, not least the overwhelming bureaucracy on employment.

  • NpNp NpNp

    3 Aug 2010, 7:53PM

    We're living in economic la-la land. Supported by huge borrowing still, and low interest rates. I doubt we produce enough wealth as a nation to actually recover. GDP figures showing 'growth' included 200 billion printed and 155 billion borrowed, 200 bill being 10% GDP (what negative GDP would that produce).
    Heavens knows what the future is for the UK. These ridiculous house prices do not reflect the true state of the economy. How much longer can the charade continue. How much longer can the welfare state suck out the country's life blood.
    Surely the economic laws will kick-in sometime, and the truth will really hurt.

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