A slowdown in export orders last month hit Britain's manufacturing base, fuelling concerns that faltering growth in the eurozone and a steady rise in the value of the pound will choke off a recovery in orders.
Economists warned that the second half of 2010 could prove a difficult environment for manufacturers because of the strength of sterling, which this morning rose to a five and a half month high against the dollar, at $1.5764.
Sluggish growth in the eurozone – expected to be around 0.5% this year – could also prove a drag on UK exports.
Manufacturing maintained its steady growth during July, largely supported by domestic orders that left the Markit purchasing managers' index (PMI) down only slightly from 57.6 to 57.3.
Andrew Goodwin, senior economic adviser to forecasting group the Ernst & Young Item Club, said that while the figures showed that UK manufacturing continued to grow at a strong pace, the detail of the survey betrayed more worrying trends, "in particular, the fact that growth in export orders appears to have stalled. It is encouraging that domestic orders have been able to offset external weakness over the past couple of months, but it would be unrealistic to expect this to continue given the headwinds that are likely to buffet the domestic sector over the next couple of years.
"The second quarter will probably represent the high point of quarterly manufacturing output growth, though this balance still points to quarterly growth of more than 1% for the third quarter."
Alan Clarke, UK economist at French bank BNP Paribas, said: "The breakdown showed export orders fell three quarter points to 50.75, the lowest since last August and down around 10 points in the last four months – a sign that a cooling-off in overseas demand is beginning to hit home."
Clarke warned that the services sector, which represents the bulk of the UK economy, is a bigger risk. "This sector has seen its PMI falling for four consecutive months and is four points off the peak," he said. "Last month's services sector Markit/CIPS PMI saw the expectations component collapse, which is typically a good guide to the future evolution of the headline index. Hence Wednesday's July update will be crucial to how the more weighty services sector is likely to affect overall growth."
Mark Bolsom, of currency payments business Travelex, said foreign exchange investors were reassured about the pace of the UK's recovery compared with the US, where fears of a double-dip recession are increasing.
He said: "In the short term, I would expect to see continued support for the pound as UK data continues to outperform that in the US. In the medium term however, I would expect the UK government's austerity measures to impact the pound's strength and continued economic growth in the UK."
Clarke said recent positive figures for the UK, including growth of 1.1% in the second quarter of the year, could represent a high water mark before the economy slips back. Steep cuts in government spending and higher taxes are expected to bite later this year and into 2011.
Across the eurozone, manufacturing was strongest in Germany by a wide margin – accelerating sharply to hit a three-month high. Italy saw growth accelerate to a pace matching April's post-recession peak and Spain also saw output rise at the fastest pace since April.
France, the Netherlands, Ireland and Austria, on the other hand, all saw growth slow compared to post-recession peaks seen earlier in the year.
France, considered one of the more robust eurozone economies, showed signs of faltering after figures showed production declined to an 11-month low while levels of employment dropped at the sharpest pace since September 2009. Rates of job losses also accelerated in Greece but slowed in Ireland and Spain.
Input cost inflation, which slowed in the UK along with output prices, remained marked in France despite easing to a five-month low.
The Markit eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 56.7 in July, up from 55.6 in June and above the earlier estimate of 56.5.
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