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Tuesday 20 July 2010
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Gordon Brown was a fan of slogans, Labour pollster Deborah Mattinson reveals in her new book. Photograph: Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters
The Times reportedly paid £350,000 to serialise Lord Mandelson's book. My budget for book serialisations is rather more modest – but I did manage to wangle a copy of Deborah Mattinson's book, Talking to a Brick Wall, and it's definitely worth a blog.
Mattinson was involved in polling and focus group research for Labour for 25 years, and describes herself on the dustjacket as "chief pollster to Gordon Brown", although the book reveals that they fell out before the 2010 election.
It's not the best book on New Labour, but it contains more insight and less bile than many memoirs and probably deserves more attention than it has received. Continue reading...
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Monday 21 June 2010
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The Guardian and ICM have been conducting monthly polls since 1984. Here is the full data going back to then. Plus, for the first time, we can bring you the trends in the big questions and how they've changed over time. Continue reading...
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Thursday 6 May 2010
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Follow all the latest exit polls and election results from across the UK with Andrew Sparrow
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Information is Beautiful on the polls. Click image for full graphic
The opinion polls are in - but how accurate are they?
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Bookies are predicting a bumper turnout at the polls. Photograph: Nils Jorgensen/Rex Features
Follow all the latest developments with Haroon Siddique as voters across the countrty head to the polls
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Wednesday 5 May 2010
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David Cameron at Dafydd Llwyd school in Newtown in Wales today. Photograph: Carl De Souza/AFP/Getty Images
Andrew Sparrow covers the latest general election news and events, including Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg on the campaign trail.
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Tuesday 4 May 2010
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Mini lego figures of Nick Clegg and David Cameron carrying Gordon Brown out of Downing Street of Miniland at Legoland Windsor in Berkshire. Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA
The polls, the deficit and the big society - these are the numbers that have made the last four weeks
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Monday 3 May 2010
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Gordon Brown talks to Labour supporters at Suffolk University in Ipswich. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images
Coverage of the latest general election news and events, including Gordon Brown's speech on Labour's fight for fairness
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Sunday 2 May 2010
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The Liberal Democrat battlebus out and about in London Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA
Andrew Sparrow covers the latest general election news and events, including Andrew Marr interviewing David Cameron and a speech by Gordon Brown.
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Tuesday 27 April 2010
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A member of the public confronts David Cameron about special schools policy. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA
Andrew Sparrow covers the latest general election news and events, including speeches from David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown
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Monday 26 April 2010
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Gordon Brown speaks to journalists on a train to London today. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
Andrew Sparrow covers all the latest general election news and events, including David Cameron and Nick Clegg holding press conferences and Gordon Brown on the campaign trail.
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Wednesday 21 April 2010
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A police officer escorts a student who threw an egg at the Conservative party leader, David Cameron. Photograph: Adrian Dennis/AP
Andrew Sparrow covers the latest general election news and events, including Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg on the campaign trail and developments in the opinion polls
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Tuesday 20 April 2010
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Nick Clegg: The Liberal Democrat leader is forcing the Tories to rethink. Photograph: Murdo MacLeod
I wasn't the only hack who had the same bright idea this morning – to see how Nick Clegg is coping with being compared to Winston Churchill, Tony Blair, Barack Obama and Mother Theresa.
I made up that last comparison, although a photo in today's Mail has Clegg's name on a church billboard in the same sized typeface as Jesus Christ, so I'm not far out. Clegg's press conference was crowded with new disciples, plus St Vincent of Twickenham, his John the Baptist.
How's he doing? Well, I thought, although there was a daffy passage (in response to a brutal question about his expenses from the BBC's Andrew Neil) when he said of his constituency second home, in Sheffield Hallam: "My home is on loan to me from the taxpayer." Continue reading...
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Tuesday 6 April 2010
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Chris Huhne: a 0.56 point swing from Lib Dems to Tories would mean he lost his seat. Photograph: Martin Argles
Today's crop of polls are a mixed bunch for the Tories. According to UK Polling Report's swing calculator, the 10-point leads shown in YouGov/the Sun and Opinium/the Express would give them a majority of around 10, while the Guardian's ICM poll would result in a hung parliament, with Labour as the largest party.
But, unless the Conservatives perform much better than these polls indicate on election day, they are unlikely to unseat any of the current Labour cabinet members from their constituencies.
Of all the current cabinet ministers, only Alistair Darling, the chancellor, Jim Murphy, the Scottish secretary, and Ben Bradshaw, the culture secretary, are remotely vulnerable to Conservative attack.
But Darling and Murphy's seats are in Scotland, where the Labour to Tory swing is likely to be much smaller than in the UK as a whole.
To snatch Bradshaw's Exeter seat, the Conservatives would need a swing of almost 9%. Their current polling swing in the best of today's polls for them – the Sun's – is around 9.5%. But even if they were to get a 9.5% swing nationally, Bradshaw's relatively high profile would probably insulate him sufficiently. Continue reading...
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Wednesday 24 March 2010
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David Miliband, Alistair Darling and Lord Mandelson meet before the budget this morning. Photograph: Lefteris Pitarakis/pool/Reuters
Some fascinating, and mildly contradictory, polling numbers on the economy floating around this morning ahead of the budget. Ipsos Mori in the Daily Mirror shows the Tories with a five-point lead – 35% to 30% – in the state of the parties, but on the big proposition of whether to cut spending this year or next, the numbers comes out 57% to 30% in favour of the Labour position.
A third – 32% – name the economy as an issue that will be very important in helping them to decide who to vote for (more than any other issue). More of the public think the economy will improve (36%) than think it will get worse (29%) in the next 12 months. Less than a third (29%) of the public believe the Tories have the best policies on the economy – barely more than the 26% saying Labour.
Continue reading...
On Politics
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