Conservative MPs who lost out on ministerial jobs, after toiling on the frontbench during the hard years of opposition, are whiling away the hot summer months with a new game. In the bars and tearooms of Westminster they are placing bets on who will be the next minister to resign from the cabinet.
The game was disrupted when David Laws resigned as treasury chief secretary over his expenses. "I was most disappointed when David Laws resigned," one former frontbencher said. "It meant that I lost my bet that Iain Duncan Smith would be the the first minister to resign."
Duncan Smith is one of three names doing the rounds. This is how the betting goes:
Iain Duncan Smith
The former Tory leader has, according to Conservative MPs, nothing to lose. He joined the cabinet not for the perks of office but to implement his vision of how welfare should be reformed.
The new work and pensions secretary indicated to the Guardian at the end of May that he had a take it or leave it approach. He also said he had no interest in simply slashing budgets:
The purpose of my life here is to improve the quality of life of the worst off in society. If somebody tells me I have to do something different then I won't be here any longer. Tattooed across my heart is that I didn't come here in any shape or form simply as a cheeseparer. What I have come to do is look root and branch at how we deliver welfare which is aimed at groups at the bottom end of society who need help and support, either because they can't work or because they can but they are unable to get back to work, or because they are disabled.
A few weeks after the interview, George Osborne made clear in the Budget that welfare woud bear the brunt of the extra cuts – £11bn of the £32bn cuts to be precise.
Duncan Smith has made clear that he was relaxed with the Budget and is in agreement with the chancellor on the need to introduce more rigorous testing of claimants on incapacity benefit. He is also excited that he is chairing the cabinet committee that will oversee the government's approach to what used to be referred to as Broken Britain.
But MPs are wondering how happy Duncan Smith will remain when it becomes clear that the Treasury has no intention of paying for reforms suggested by his Centre for Social Justice. One idea – to move more than half a million households off welfare and into work – would eventually save £700m a year. But the Tory treasury team did not like the up-front costs.
My resignation rating: Unlikely at the moment. But message to George: don't mess with a former leader.
Liam Fox
The former Tory leadership contender has irritated Downing Street on two occasions since the election:
• Within weeks of his appointment as defence secretary, Fox offended the government in Kabul by describing Afghanistan as a "broken 13th-century country".
His remarks to the Times were meant to illustrate the new government's approach: that the priority should be stabilising Afghanistan rather than creating a perfect society. Downing Street was annoyed with Fox's lack of respect for Afghanistan.
• Last month Fox announced to the world that Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, the chief of the defence staff, would resign at the conclusion of the strategic defence review in the autumn.
Downing Street had agreed that Stirrup would stand down later this year. But No 10 was irritated with the way in which Fox grabbed some headlines with the announcement which was seen as discourteous to Stirrup.
This behaviour has left Tory MPs wondering what Fox is up to. The general conclusion is that he is holding aloft the Tory flame to strengthen his position, possibly putting him in the frame for the leadership, if the coalition collapses.
Fox, who put in a strong performance in the 2005 leadership contest, is the most senior cabinet figure on the Tory right after William Hague "sold the pass" on the EU. It did not escape Downing Street's attention when Fox said during the coalition negotiations in May that the Liberal Democrats should not expect to secure pet projects such as electoral reform.
My resignation rating: Unlikely. Will cause trouble but leadership ambitions mean he will hang on.
Vince Cable
The business secretary has been the subject of endless speculation that he would quit because he was so visibly uncomfortable about forming a coalition with the Tories.
But he was a key voice in persuading the Lib Dem parliamentary party to accept the coalition for two main reasons: a deal would not have worked with Labour and his party's negotiators secured a strong deal with the Tories.
Since his appointment to the cabinet, Cable has been highly supportive of the chancellor's fiscal deficit reduction plans.
My resignation rating. Unlikely on his own. Will probably only resign with other Lib Dems if coalition collapses.
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