Last year, the book trade bet heavily on a flurry of C-list celebrity memoirs and got badly burned. This autumn, the focus is on quality, with Stephen Fry and Keith Richards replacing the likes of Sheryl Gascoigne and Leona Lewis on the non-fiction shelves, and the fiction market profiting from new books by a host of writers, from Booker prizewinner DBC Pierre to the acclaimed American author Jonathan Franzen.
Poor non-fiction publishing and a lack of public interest in celebrity titles was blamed for drops in sales at Waterstone's and WH Smith last Christmas: memoirs from male comedians including Jack Dee and Justin Lee Collins failed to live up to expectations, lacklustre autobiographies from Gascoigne and Lewis didn't set the market on fire and the collapse of Borders added to the general malaise.
"Last year there were about 12 books by comedians and, great as they are, that's probably a bit too much," said Jon Howells at Waterstone's. "No one's going to buy them all. "[But publishers] are focusing on really strong stuff this year. It's a much stronger Christmas than last."
At the independent chain Foyles, Jonathan Ruppin agreed. "We can safely say the celebrity book market has peaked – there are only so many Christmases in a row that you can buy someone a celebrity autobiography. This year, though, we are spoiled for choice."
Alan Samson, publishing director at Weidenfeld & Nicolson, said: "I think it is going to be a more upmarket Christmas than last year." His firm is bringing out memoirs by Keith Richards and Judi Dench for Christmas. "It is mainly that the marketplace didn't have enough variety last year, and there's a bit more diversity about it this year."
As they put the final touches to their Christmas plans, booksellers are tipping novels from a phalanx of top Americans coming this autumn. Freedom, the long-awaited followup to Franzen's 2001 hit The Corrections, tells the story of Patty and Walter Berglund as their family disintegrates, while hopes are also high for Paul Auster's Sunset Park and Philip Roth's Nemesis.
Other autumn titles include Lights Out in Wonderland, the new novel from DBC Pierre, the story of a global quest for the ultimate party, Luka and the Fire of Life, Salman Rushdie's magical fable for children, Human Chain, a new poetry collection from Nobel laureate Seamus Heaney, and John le Carré's new novel Our Kind of Traitor. "September and October are very strong, with big literary names," said the Bookseller's books editor, Alice O'Keeffe. "Le Carré will be absolutely massive, and the Franzen is incredible: it really lives up to the burden of his earlier success. And DBC Pierre is a big deal because he's a Booker winner."
O'Keeffe also highlighted new titles from Will Self, Patrick McCabe and a new short story collection from Colm Toibin.
In non-fiction, there will be autobiographies from people who actually have stories to tell. An eclectic mix, including Tony Blair, Stephen Fry, Nelson Mandela and Michael Caine, all release books this autumn, while a biography of Roald Dahl is causing much excitement amongst booksellers. The Grand Design, Stephen Hawking's first major book since A Brief History of Time, is also tipped for the top.
"You've got Tony Blair, an autobiography of a prime minister. No matter what you think of the man, this will be hugely important," said Howells. "Keith Richards is arguably the most long-awaited rock'n'roll biography of all time; the Stephen Hawking is possibly the most important book since A Brief History of Time, and Stephen Fry is an absolute national treasure, so his autobiography is a very big deal."
Waterstone's also pointed to Judi Dench's memoir and Justine Picardie's biography of Coco Chanel as quality offerings, while Foyles highlighted Simon Garfield's Just My Type, an anatomy of fonts, and Roger Penrose's Cycles of Time, a fresh look at what came before the Big Bang.
If there is a gap this year, it is the absence of books for – and by – women. "I really struggled to find female writers that would really stand out," said Ruppin, lamenting the "male-heavy" focus of this autumn's books.
Samson agreed, saying that the main autobiographical offerings aimed at a female readership were Weidenfeld's own Dench memoir, and Susan Boyle's forthcoming story The Woman I Was Born To Be.
Some also expressed concern about the over-concentration of celebrity "volume twos", with Paul O'Grady, Russell Brand, Jo Brand and Chris Evans both set to release the second instalments of their life stories. "That's a lot of writing about small periods in time, and the second Peter Kay didn't do as well as the first," said O'Keeffe.
Despite the focus on quality, celebrity glitz hasn't been abandoned: Dannii Minogue and Gok Wan are publishing memoirs, while Katie Price is bringing out the latest slice of her life. "There's no Chantelle this year, but there is Danny Dyer," admitted O'Keeffe. "But there is quality out there – don't abandon hope yet, serious readers."
Lights out in wonderland
The opening of DBC Pierre's latest novel, the story of the global quest for the ultimate party
There isn't a name for my situation. Firstly because I decided to kill myself. And then because of this idea: I don't have to do it immediately.
Whoosh – through a little door. It's a limbo.
I need never answer the phone again or pay a bill. My credit score no longer matters. Fears and compulsions don't matter. Socks don't matter. Because I'll be dead. And who am I to die? A microwave chef. A writer of pamphlets. A product of our time. A failed student. A faulty man. A bad poet. An activist in two minds. A drinker of chocolate milk, and when there's no chocolate, of strawberry and sometimes banana.
In times geared to the survival of the fittest ‑ not the fittest. Ah well. I've always avoided mirrors but here, naked in a room with a sink and a mirror, I steal a glance. Whoosh ‑ the weasel is gone. Suddenly I'm a sphinx with choir-boy eyes, as luminous and rude as a decadent old portrait in oils.
Because nothing matters any more.
Rehab isn't the place for this kind of inspiration, if you can possibly help it.
Lights Out in Wonderland by DBC Pierre is published in September by Faber & Faber