Gordon Brown. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
Gordon Brown is going to say something later today (Friday) about Britain's nuclear deterrent, but the message emanating from Downing Street is: don't expect history to be made.
This was originally intended to be a speech that would lay out what the UK would be offering the world, in disarmament terms, before the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty comes up for review in May. The event has now been downgraded to a few introductory remarks followed by questions.
Just like the Nuclear Posture Review marathon in Washington, these remarks have been bitterly fought over. The whole text was up in the air only a week ago, with Brown seeking some meaningful change that would keep Britain in the forefront, at least rhetorically, of the abolitionist movement, while his defence officials told him why he couldn't do what he wanted to do.
The two key arguments of the conservatives have been
a) you can't make big changes to strategic policy on the brink of an election, and
b) Don't forget the Iranian biological attack
The latter is not a real threat, but a theoretical construct. It is the reason MoD officials give why Britain cannot pledge to use its Tridents only in response to a nuclear attack. Current British doctrine would allow a nuclear response, probably using one of the low-yield warheads reported to be on each nuclear-armed submarine, to a mass biological or chemical attack by an enemy state.
Judging by the mood music on this, the MoD appear to have won the day, although it's always possible that No 10 is playing the expectations game to heighten the surprise on the day.
Here is a checklist, in order of diminishing likelihood, of things to look for in Gordon Brown's comments.
* A whittling down of warhead numbers. Britain has a declared operational arsenal of 160, with an undeclared, estimated 25 spares. Brown could bring the overall figure down in the name of minimal deterrence and make public the size of the spare stockpile in the name of transparency.
* No First Strike vs No First Use. Pledging not to deliver the first strike sounds more radical than it is. It just means Britain promises not to mount a sneak nuclear attack on any other country. It still allows Britain to make first use of nuclear weapons in a conflict. No First Use is by far the bigger doctrinal change, and proportionately less likely.
* Sole Purpose. Britain could limit the purpose of its nuclear weapons by applying them only to nuclear threats, like for like. That would remove all non-nuclear states from the target list. Over in Washington, Barack Obama is contemplating a line in the Nuclear Posture Review, saying words to the effect that "The purpose of US nuclear weapons is deter nuclear attack" Just possibly, Brown could try to steal his thunder, but he would have had to overcome the Iranian biological attack objection from his own officials.
UPDATE: And the answer is.....None of the above. The prime minister's remarks represent a huge retreat from Downing Street's ambitions of just a few years days ago. He might have been persuaded that it was unseemly to fiddle with nuclear doctrine on the brink of an election. It is possible he will have something to offer closer to the Nuclear Security Summit on April 12-13, but we are getting close to election "purdah" on policy.
You have characters left
Please read our community standards.
Closing this window without pressing "Post your comment" will result in your words being lost.
Are you sure?
Thank you for your comment. This has been submitted for moderation.
Your comment has been successfully posted.
Sorry, something has gone wrong and this action cannot be completed. Please try again later.