Archive: 5 April – 11 April 2010
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Sunday 11 April 2010
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When it comes to working the casual chic look, David Cameron and Nick Clegg shouldn't give up their day jobs Continue reading...
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Charles Kennedy says he's relieved he doesn't have to stay up late like Nick Clegg. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images
• Row over Labour's mailshots to cancer sufferers
• Tories sign up more businessmen to National Insurance campaign
• Parties gear up for manifesto launches
• Follow all the latest developments as they happen
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Saturday 10 April 2010
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The beauty of Cameron's new militia
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Friday 9 April 2010
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Far from being sacked, a piece on the First Post is arguing this afternoon that Stuart MacLennan should be promoted
The majority of Twitter users, were highly amused, with joan_jane_1239 putting it in true web-speak: "I don't think Stuart MacLennan should've been sacked. They should employ a lolz rule. If what they do brings the lolz, leave them be." ('Lolz' is the plural of laugh out loud.)
If Labour really wants to win over the social networking constituency, it would been far better off promoting MacLennan to a winnable seat: at least he talks the way most people speak on the internet - and gives the Twittering masses the lolz
A few of you – by which I do actually mean a minority – in the comments on my pre-sacking post on MacLennan took a similar view Continue reading...
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Damian Carrington: Does the Tory leader's reluctance to discuss nuclear power and aviation on the Today programme raise questions over his commitment to the environmental agenda? Continue reading...
David Cameron at a press conference in London on 8 April 2010. Photograph: Carl Court/AFP/Getty Images
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A Tory pact with the Ulster Unionists, who governed Northern Ireland from Stormont, above, for 50 years, is in trouble. Photograph: Peter Morrison/AP
Is David Cameron's pact with the Ulster Unionist Party unravelling? The Tory leader, who has faced criticism for meddling in the highly sensitive area of Northern Ireland politics, has made two key points in his defence:
• The Tories and their allies will stand under their joint banner in all 18 constituencies in Northern Ireland.
• No deals will be made with the Democratic Unionist Party on joint candidates.
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Voter Power Index
In ideal world, you would imagine that your vote would be worth the same as everyone else's. In our world (the UK), that is not the case – whatever merits its supporters ascribe to first past the post, the direct link between a constituency and an MP, for example, it is undeniable that is also only voters in the marginals who really have the power to shape a result.
The New Economics Foundation (NEF) have put together a site to tell you exactly how much your vote is "worth" under first past the post. Put in your postcode and it gives you the answer. Continue reading...
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Gordon Brown says Conservative plans to restrict the retention of DNA profiles would hinder criminal justice
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A 24-year-old Labour candidate in Scotland who once said "the biggest gaffes will likely be made by candidates on Twitter - what are the odds it'll be me?" should have put some money on himself. Stuart MacLennan's tweets included "God this fairtrade, organic banana is shit. Can I have a slave-grown, chemically enhanced, genetically modified one please?", "Made my connecting train. No first class it would appear. Sitting opposite the ugliest old boot I've ever seen too" and "Lots of chavs at Stirling station". Continue reading...
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Ladbrokes has set voting thresholds for the three main parties
With a lot of interest in the final vote share that the three main parties will secure, Ladbrokes has responded
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Gordon Brown consults staff in a break between interviews with TV political journalists. Photograph: Martin Argles
Andrew Sparrow reports on the latest general election news and events, including David Cameron's interview on the Today programme
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Thursday 8 April 2010
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David Cameron and Michael Caine yesterday. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images
But he's not bloody hugging them
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William Hague on his helicopter tour of Scotland today Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA
William Hague embarked on one of the most frenetic election tours of any recent election today, making a whistlestop tour of 11 Tory target seats in Scotland by helicopter.
His choice of transport brought immediate derision from the Labour party, with one backbencher, Anne Maguire, accusing him of keeping up an "Ashcroft Airways image", proving the Tories were a "jet set" party of the rich.
But Maguire's reference to Lord Ashcroft, who has famously funded 11 overseas trips by Hague, is misplaced.
Hague was able to visit Edinburgh, Aberdeenshire, East Renfrewshire, Perth, Stirling, the Borders and Dumfries in under 10 hours thanks to a little-known backer, the millionaire financier and businessman Martyn Meade. Continue reading...
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Suzanne Moore, columnist for the Mail on Sunday, formerly of the Guardian, Independent and New Statesman, tweeted this lunchtime that she is to stand as an independent in Hackney North and Stoke Newington, where Diane Abbott is the sitting MP. We should be hearing more on her platform later.
Meanwhile in Stoke-on-Trent Central, the row over the selection of historian (and Guardian contributor) Tristram Hunt to stand for Labour is continuing to roll on. Continue reading...
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For those who follow these things - me - we now have a fantastic battle between the Whitehall paperclip men, on which the election could yet turn.
On one side, we have two government efficiency advisers, the mysteriously quiet Dr Martin Read and Sir Peter Gershon. On the other, three efficiency experts Gerry Grimstone, Lord Carter of Coles and Martin Jay.
The first two say the government can save not just £15bn in efficiency it already plans this year, but £27bn. The other three seem less convinced.
The trio have been joined by Professor Colin Talbot, the public services adviser to the Treasury select committee. It is probably tedious to get into the detail, but Grimstone in the FT is damaging to the Conservative case: Continue reading...
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Simon Jeffery: Throughout the election, we'll be linking to websites doing interesting election things. Send suggestions to alt.vote@guardian.co.uk. In this installment: Vote for Policies, People's Policies and Rate My Tory
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Cameron: Does the prime minister admit he has got it wrong on the 1% rise in national insurance?
Brown: Which one? The one we're planning or the ones we've already implemented?
Cameron: Does the prime minister accept that he has lost the support of British business?
Brown: Our business leaders have been deceived.
Cameron: Who by?
Brown: Good point. It can't be by the Conservatives as you don't have any policies.
Cameron: The 1% rise will kill off growth and plunge Great Britain back into recession.
Brown: It was Labour who got us into this recession and it is Labour who will get us out by spending money on bailing out the banks, hospitals and the war in Afghanistan.
Cameron: You've now declared war on business.
Brown: At least it's a war we can win.
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David Cameron and Michael Caine on their way to the launch of the Conservatives' National Citizen Service initiative Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images
Marina Hyde: Given that Sir Michael recently threatened to become a tax exile again, his coming out for a Tory policy was not an enormous shock
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Currently picking up some buzz on Twitter is the news that the founder of the LGBTory group, the biggest Conservative group campaigning for gay rights, has announced her intention to vote Labour over the non-reprimanding of Chris Grayling by David Cameron for his remarks that B&B owners should "have the right" to turn away homosexual couples.
From the Independent, which appears to have been privy to Anastasia Beaumont-Bott's thinking first:
"I feel guilty because as a gay woman affected by LGBT rights I am on record saying you should vote Conservative, and I want to reverse that," she said. "I want to go on record to say don't vote Conservative. I'd go as far to say that I'll vote Labour at this general election." The endorsement for Labour from Ms Beaumont-Bott, 20, will be an embarrassment for the Tories. She had been picked out as one of the faces of Mr Cameron's young, modern Conservatives for her work in promoting gay rights within the party [...] Continue reading...
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Michael Caine speaking in support of the Conservatives today
It was among the ideas David Cameron raised when he put himself forward as prospective Tory leader in 2005 and now, more than four years later, his determination to push ahead with a national citizen service became the centrepiece of his first major press conference of the election campaign.
Under a Tory government, cash would be diverted from Labour's "failing" community cohesion schemes to pay for youngsters to take part in civilian "national service", Cameron said today, as he shifted the focus from his plans to partially scrap the proposed rise in national insurance to his "big society" agenda.
The Tory leader said the plans for national citizen service had already been trialled in pilot programmes run by charities and social enterprises in London, Wales and north-west England, which allows the Tories the rare opportunity of presenting a Conservative policy already being put into practice.
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There was a possibility in this election that the traditional election night count, the thing that allows you to sit up all night watching swingometers, would not be taking place. Up to a quarter of councils were instead said to be moving towards Friday daytime counts - when you would probably have other things to do.
Naturally there was a Facebook campaign to save election night (supported by Labour MP Tom Harris) and the cause was enthusiastically taken up by blogger Iain Dale. He today says the fight for election night is all but over. Continue reading...
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An overnight election result could be possible after all. Photograph: Nigel Roddis/Reuters
An overnight general election result could be possible after all after it emerged that only 42 constituencies plan to start counting votes the next day.
The Electoral Commission has published a document (pdf) explaining which constituencies plan to count when.
It shows that – contrary to expectations that up to one-third would not start counting until the morning of Friday 7 May – 80% plan to begin counting after the polls close on election day, as normal.
Many constituencies had indicated that they planned to count on the Friday after new legislation meant postal vote signatures, including those handed in at a polling station on election day, all had to be verified. Cost was also a factor, as paying people to count during daylight is much cheaper. Continue reading...
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A polling station near Crewe at the Crewe and Nantwich byelection in 2008. Photograph: John Giles/PA Wire
Generally within a day or so of an election being declared the media narrative becomes that the public are not interested, with associated dire predictions about the number of voters.
This affects the betting, with odds on higher turnout levels edging upwards to price levels which three weeks later look like remarkable value.
Because for the first time since 1992 the outcome is not a foregone conclusion, interest levels will mount steadily as voters feel that their individual votes really could matter.
This might not push turnout to the 77% of 1992 but it is going to be much higher than the 60% or so of the past two elections.
Even with the Commons expenses issue, my guess is that it could get into the 70s and I like the 9-2 that's available from Bet365 on it being greater than 70%.
• Mike Smithson is the founder and editor of politicalbetting.com
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David Cameron sits with student Daryl Brown during an election visit to the Globe Academy, in south-east London today. Photograph: Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images
Andrew Sparrow covers the latest election news and events, including Gordon Brown's press conference and his interview on the Today programme
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Wednesday 7 April 2010
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Increasing numbers of senior business leaders are opposing the move, but opinion is divided on what impact a rise will have
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Simon Jeffery: The Guardian picture desk has set up a Flickr group for you to post your election pictures too. Really, this can be anything - campaign posters, candidates, dawn breaking over the polling station on election day, the more variety the better
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Screengrab from Labour.org.uk
Simon Jeffery: 250 or so people watching the People's PMQs, according to the figures on Labour's own website
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Peter Walker: Tory leader comes under fire from head injury and accident prevention charities after riding without a helmet Continue reading...
Conservative party leader David Cameron arrives by bicycle at the House of Commons in central London Photograph: Lewis Whyld/PA
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382 seats are already safe in the 2010 general election Photograph: Geoff Moore / Rex Features
The Electoral Reform Society says over half of seats at the election are safe. Find out whether the election in your constituency has already been decided
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Should we trust the Liberal Democrat leader's claim that Gordon Brown and David Cameron are not to be trusted on this issue?
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Simon Jeffery: An 18-year-old has saved £500 from his £4.65 an hour McDonald's job so he can stand in the election
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Gordon Brown at prime minister's questions today Photograph: PA
The last PMQs before the election. Gordon Brown's last as prime minister, maybe. You would think that Labour MPs would have been pumped up for this one. Stakes high and all that.
But what have we just seen? The Tories rampant, noisy, boisterous, laughing, and clearly relishing the fight. Right up for it.
While opposite them sat Labour: sullen, exhausted-looking, meek, feebly quiet by comparison, without a new thing to say or argument to deploy. David Cameron focused on ill-equipped troops in Afghanistan, and was roared on by his backbenchers while Brown was left to battle wearily against the din, with his ministers and MPs failing to raise even a semi-respectable counter-effort. Continue reading...
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Caroline Lucas, leader of the Green party. Photograph: David Levene
A really good-value bet is that the Greens will secure their first Westminster MP
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Gordon Brown at prime minister's questions today. Photograph: HO/Reuters
Andrew Sparrow reports on all the latest general election news and events, including the last prime minister's questions before polling day
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Tuesday 6 April 2010
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Gordon and Sarah Brown out on the campaign trail in Kent. Photograph: WPA Pool/Getty Images
Lewis Baston: The polls published yesterday may have appeared to be all over the place – but were more consistent than they looked
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Simon Jeffery: Exciting job opportunity in London SW1 'at the very forefront of decision making in the UK'
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This was the first time in four general elections that a Labour leader could risk invoking class – but how does the claim stack up? Continue reading...
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A selection of general election leaflets from thestraightchoice.org
The straight choice in this election isn't just what Chris Grayling wants for B&B owners, it's also a website collecting party leaflets from across the UK (taking its name from notoriously homophobic campaign literature from a now openly bisexual Liberal Democrat attacking a then openly gay Labour candidate in 1980s London).
We are partnering with Straight Choice to put campaign leaflets on our constituency pages (to find yours, type your postcode into our main election page or constituency name into the election map and swingometer) such as Romsey and Southampton North, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne Central and 648 more. Campaign leaflets are traditionally some of the most under-the-radar parts of any election campaign, at least to the national media and wider electorate, and vehicle for some of the harshest and most outlandish claims. Putting them on the internet changes that and opens them up to more scrutiny (we hope). Continue reading...
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David Cameron launches the Tories' general election campaign from the terrace of County Hall in London. Photograph: Jonathan Hordle/Rex Features
David Cameron's four-year-old son, Elwen, has clocked that something big is going on in his dad's life.
"Stop making so many boring speeches, Dad," Elwen told his father over the Easter weekend as he administered a friendly kick to the head of the Tory leader.
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National insurance contributions will rise by 0.5%, it was announced in the pre-budget report Photograph: Corbis/Richard Baker
The election campaign has already focused on accusations over national insurance and VAT. So, what are the options for taxing and cutting for the election's winner?
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Chris Huhne: a 0.56 point swing from Lib Dems to Tories would mean he lost his seat. Photograph: Martin Argles
Today's crop of polls are a mixed bunch for the Tories. According to UK Polling Report's swing calculator, the 10-point leads shown in YouGov/the Sun and Opinium/the Express would give them a majority of around 10, while the Guardian's ICM poll would result in a hung parliament, with Labour as the largest party.
But, unless the Conservatives perform much better than these polls indicate on election day, they are unlikely to unseat any of the current Labour cabinet members from their constituencies.
Of all the current cabinet ministers, only Alistair Darling, the chancellor, Jim Murphy, the Scottish secretary, and Ben Bradshaw, the culture secretary, are remotely vulnerable to Conservative attack.
But Darling and Murphy's seats are in Scotland, where the Labour to Tory swing is likely to be much smaller than in the UK as a whole.
To snatch Bradshaw's Exeter seat, the Conservatives would need a swing of almost 9%. Their current polling swing in the best of today's polls for them – the Sun's – is around 9.5%. But even if they were to get a 9.5% swing nationally, Bradshaw's relatively high profile would probably insulate him sufficiently. Continue reading...
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Andrew Sparrow reports live on the first day of the 2010 general election campaign
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Monday 5 April 2010
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It looks like we are in for a treat over the next month. A second camera has joined the WebCameron team, which has recorded the Tory leader's every public outing over the past four years, to follow his wife Samantha as she spends two days a week on the campaign trail.
The first recording opens with Sam Cam, as she is known in Tory circles, chatting in her London kitchen on Good Friday. With the kettle boiling in the background, Sam talks about her visit later that morning to the Pedro youth club in Hackney which has been saved from collapse by an "amazing" man called Pat Sands.
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